All-In's 2026 Predictions

(0:00) California exodus, asset seizure tax, Besties to Austin? (12:27) Biggest Political Winner (17:45) Biggest Political Loser (32:15) Biggest Business Winner (40:51) Biggest Business Loser (49:34) Biggest Business Deal (56:15) Most Contrarian Belief (1:03:05) Best Performing Asset (1:08:02) Worst Performing Asset (1:15:17) Most Anticipated Trend (1:21:18) Most Anticipated Media Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://x.com/reidhoffman/status/2009015043258552670 https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/09/technology/google-founders-california-wealth-tax.html https://x.com/Daily_MailUS/status/2008903817341931618 https://fasterplease.substack.com/p/ai-and-the-radiologist-apocalypse https://www.tipranks.com/news/atlanta-fed-doubles-q4-gdp-estimate-to-5-4-as-trade-deficit-plunges https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/the-160-000-mechanic-job-that-ford-cant-fill-fe6fd121  

(0:00) Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick tells a hilarious Air Force One story (2:24) Chamath intros Secretary Lutnick (7:28) Full scope of the Commerce Department (12:59) How Trump's tariff agenda was planned and executed, how it's going (19:50) US-Japan trade deal, China's chaos-to-prowess strategy (36:54) Why the India deal has not yet happened (43:48) Pharma deals, lowering costs for Americans (53:28) Focus on fraud, immigration, gold cards (1:03:48) GDP: Could we see 5 or 6% growth in 2026? (1:11:49) How the Trump Admin revamped the CHIPS Act, Nvidia deal Follow Secretary Lutnick: https://x.com/howardlutnick Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect

(0:00) Guest intros: Jasons introduces Bob Sternfels (McKinsey) and Hemant Taneja (General Catalyst) (2:52) The pace of innovation and why VC's are buying hospitals (9:30) CFOs vs CIOs and unlocking growth (20:46) The job market and why graduates aren't getting hired (27:33) Why education is broken (40:03) Tech time capsule Follow Hemant Taneja: https://x.com/htaneja Follow Bob Sternfels: https://www.linkedin.com/in/bob-sternfels Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect

(0:00) Bestie intros! Nick Shirley joins the show to discuss his recent investigation on potential daycare fraud in Minnesota (3:32) Nick's background, how he got into investigative reporting and YouTube, independence, finding this story (16:36) Why this fraud story is resonating, why the national press initially avoided it (30:08) Future plans, California, possible Al-Shabaab connection, how high up does Minnesota's fraud go? (49:15) What the scale of fraud means for America, Minnesota's future, potential patronage scheme (1:09:06) CA's wealth tax: normalizing the seizure of private property (1:33:56) Chamath breaks down the $20B Groq-Nvidia deal Follow Nick Shirley: https://x.com/nickshirleyy Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://x.com/nickshirleyy/status/2004642794862961123 https://www.startribune.com/prosecutors-charge-5-people-in-a-minnesota-housing-fraud-scheme/601548944 https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/29/us/fraud-minnesota-somali.html https://www.fox9.com/news/fraud-minnesota-detailing-nearly-1-billion-schemes https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/2005410646603473256 https://x.com/kevinkileyca/status/2006053056660541840 https://x.com/chamath/status/2006087862492582084 https://x.com/C_3C_3/status/2005722313795440956 https://x.com/OliLondonTV/status/2005988021946999166 https://x.com/tomhennessey69/status/2005556784228909441 https://x.com/WallStreetApes/status/2005849513676923358 https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/2005179409465299219 https://dcyf.mn.gov/programs-directory/child-care-assistance-program https://x.com/susancrabtree/status/2006079778873565541 https://x.com/chamath/status/2005386348169953607 https://x.com/aaronburnett/status/2003874734661161064 https://newsletter.amuseonx.com/p/the-somali-patronage-system-has-taken https://x.com/realdailywire/status/2006122428196442388 https://x.com/rightanglenews/status/2006375449404866720 https://www.auditor.ca.gov/reports/2025-601/

(0:00) Intro! (2:47) Tony Hinchcliffe roasts the Besties (15:01) Interview: Kill Tony success, MSG rally, origin story, free speech in Europe (36:03) The Besties play Kill Tony! (50:14) The 2025 Bestie Awards: Business, Politics, Tech, and more Thanks to our partners for making this happen! IREN: https://iren.com OKX: https://okx.com Google Cloud: https://cloud.google.com Follow Tony: https://www.youtube.com/@killtony https://x.com/TonyHinchcliffe Follow the besties:  https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect

(0:00) Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent joins the show (0:55) Recapping 2025 and the state of the economy (3:13) Tariffs: Leverage, legal challenges, implementation (15:20) Affordability: inflation, BLS data, interest rates (23:00) The Fed: biggest mistakes, how we got a 15 year asset bubble, rate cycle, appetite for US debt, Fed Chair candidates (42:44) Focus on Main Street, taking equity stakes in American companies (50:40) Tax cuts, Trump accounts, economic legacy Follow Secretary Bessent: https://x.com/SecScottBessent Referenced in the show: https://www.international-economy.com/TIE_Sp25_Bessent.pdf Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect

(0:00) Bestie intros! (0:19) Bernie Sanders calls for AI datacenter moratorium, how to solve the negative perception of AI (17:15) Anti-AI astroturfing: Is the AI sentiment manufactured by special interests? (32:39) Economy: Unemployment, jobs, inflation, are we primed for a "Golden Age" or not? (51:44) Dog Corner! (59:56) China's major AI breakthrough: lithography, impact on the AI race? (1:19:43) Are the rest of the Besties moving to Texas? Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://x.com/SenSanders/status/2001057004370948131 https://x.com/RoKhanna/status/2001733168819319167 https://x.com/DavidSacks/status/2001726037848478000 https://x.com/DavidSacks/status/2001320789279203694 https://andymasley.substack.com/p/i-cant-find-any-instances-of-data https://www.semafor.com/article/12/07/2025/ai-critics-funded-ai-coverage-at-top-newsrooms https://connecticuthistory.org/ida-tarbell-the-woman-who-took-on-standard-oil/ https://x.com/DavidSacks/status/1987238502124409321 https://www.npr.org/2025/12/16/nx-s1-5645023/jobs-employment-labor-market https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/18/cpi-inflation-breakdown.html https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES9091000001 https://www.reuters.com/world/china/how-china-built-its-manhattan-project-rival-west-ai-chips-2025-12-17/ https://www.reuters.com/article/world/uk/trump-administration-pressed-dutch-hard-to-cancel-china-chip-equipment-sale-so-idUSKBN1Z50H4/ https://www.nature.com/articles/s41377-025-01923-w

(0:00) Tucker joins the besties! (4:11) Paramount vs Netflix: bidding war over Warner Bros Discovery (25:40) What's behind the rise of Nick Fuentes and America First? (49:13) Understanding the Anti-AI sentiment (1:21:52) Tucker in 20: Venezuela, Midterm issues, fall of Europe, Qatar, Charlie Kirk investigation, leaving NATO, supporting Israel Follow Tucker: https://x.com/TuckerCarlson Check out Battalion Metals: https://battalionmetals.com Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://x.com/chamath/status/1999139689173749835 https://www.vulture.co/article/netflix-vs-paramount-ownership-warner-bros-discovery.html https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-close-warner-bros-acquisition?tid=1765487045602 https://www.realityslaststand.com/p/the-manufactured-rise-of-nick-fuentes https://x.com/DavidSacks/status/1997843165102100528 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS14024887 https://www.wsj.com/business/data-centers-are-a-gold-rush-for-construction-workers-6e3c5ce0

(0:00) Bestie intros (0:12) OpenAI declares "Code Red" as competitors eat away ChatGPT market share (28:14) David Sacks vs. New York Times (51:24) New poverty line, America's slow descent into socialism Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: Sacks's AI waiver: https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/David-Sacks.pdf Sacks's Crypto waiver: https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Memo-David-Sacks-3.5.2025-1.pdf https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-ceo-declares-code-red-combat-threats-chatgpt-delays-ads-effort?rc=f8fu8f https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/19/nvidia-says-no-assurance-of-deal-with-openai-after-100-billion-pact.html https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/30/technology/david-sacks-white-house-profits.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/23/us/politics/anita-dunn-biden-white-house.html https://www.yesigiveafig.com/p/part-1-my-life-is-a-lie

(0:00) Molly Bloom joins the besties live in Las Vegas! (1:48) Did Jason actually play in "Molly's Game"? (3:23) Molly's background, starting the game, getting strong-armed by a famous actor, getting stiffed for $250K and losing the game (16:54) Moving the game to NYC, mob involvement, legal troubles, writing her memoir and making the movie (31:10) Best celebrity poker players, high-stakes poker archetypes, and more (34:31) Sales coaching advice Thanks to Oracle! Join Oracle AI Experience to discover how Oracle is your partner for accelerating your AI journey. https://www.oracle.com/artificial-intelligence/ai-experience/?source=:ex:sn:::::AllIn&SC=:ex:sn:::::AllIn&pcode= Follow Molly: https://x.com/ImMollyBloom Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect