Were We Lucky, or Were We Good?

In this short episode, Steve explores the thinking behind the "lucky or good" framework, looks at its theoretical foundations, and invites listeners to apply the concept in their own organization -- not just when things have gone obviously wrong, but when things have seemingly gone well. Do we know why we normally succeed? If we don't examine our successes, then they may ALL be lucky rather than good.

In this episode, Tom Vogl shares a harrowing story of an enormous avalanche that narrowly missed his group of backcountry skiers in the North Cascades.In this humble and vulnerable account, Tom reflects on how the events of the day unfolded, how plans changed, and the mindset they were in that may have contributed to the near-miss. As we explore the event, he moves on to how he has since learned and developed different habits and system approaches to be more risk-aware in the present.Tom's story helps us understand ways we can use good habits and systems to convert lucky to good!*Note - fixed the audio for this episode *

In the world of outdoor education, success often teeters on the edge of luck and skill. What happens when we experience a near miss? How do we learn from those moments that could have ended in disaster? In this episode, we'll explore a compelling story shared by risk management consultant and coach, Stuart Slay. This account highlights the critical lessons learned from incidents in outdoor programs, emphasizing the importance of planning, accountability, safety leadership and reflective practices.Were they lucky, or good?

Part II of our two part series with Kate Koons, talking about lessons learned from risk management in Antarctica and beyond. What has Kate learned from outdoor education, avalanche education, mental health training, and wilderness risk management that she has successfully adapted and applied to her field safety work in Antarctica? We also return to her story of a snowmobile incident from Part I and evaluate if they were lucky, or good.Safety Science concepts include Safety Clutter, Systems Thinking, AcciMaps, and Psychological Safety, among others.

Guest: Kate KoonsIn this episode, Kate Koons shares her risk management leadership experiences from Antarctica and beyond, highlighting the importance of psychological safety, planning, and communication in extreme environments. Chapters00:00 Kate's Journey as a Learner and Mentor02:44 Incident in Antarctica: A Case Study10:10 Response and Recovery: What Went Well17:34 Graceful Extensibility Built Into the Design19:04 Emergency versus Crisis23:32 The Importance of Psychological Safety30:09 Competing Priorities in Scientific Field Work32:50 How do we perceive risk?

Guest: Chris BartramOutdoor Educator, Mountain Guide and Risk Management Consultant Chris Bartram revisits a challenging experience from early in his outdoor education career, struggling with group dynamics and threatening, disruptive behavior from a student. In revisiting the story, the conversation shifts from a simple story of blame, to a more complex story of organizational, administrative, and environmental factors that contributed to the group's challenges. Applying a systems-thinking lens, Chris explores deeper lessons learned from the event, and wraps up with focused advice for organizational leaders and managers to learn from his experience. Chapters00:00 Introductions01:37 Student Behavioral Challenges04:45 Group Dynamics07:46 Behavior Management and Health Concerns11:57 A Brief Change in Student Behavior...12:56 Analysis of the Incident22:31 Were we lucky, or good?32:32 Advice - Listening to the Front Line Workers33:33 Positive Capacities

Episode 8 - The Costs, and Gifts, of Outdoor Incidents (Tracy Rekart)Guest: Tracy RekartTracy Rekart shares a powerful story of a climbing incident, lessons learned about risk, communication, and resilience. This episode explores how to handle failure, recognize biases, and pursue recovery after a critical incident occurs. Her story is filled with insights, clarity, courage, and vulnerability, all of which provide useful takeaways for outdoor & experiential educators.Chapters00:00 Introduction to the Podcast and Guest01:12 Tracy's Climbing Incident: A Personal Story09:00 Reflections on the Incident and Lessons Learned12:55 Communication and Safety in Outdoor Education17:09 The Aftermath: Recovery and Relationship Growth19:39 A Dream of Healing20:28 Finding a New Home and Life Choices21:45 The Importance of Presence in Recovery23:25 Learning from Vulnerability and Holding Space24:43 Cognitive Biases in Outdoor Education27:24 The Substitution Effect in Decision Making30:26 FailSafe vs. Fail Safely31:48 Excavating for Risks and Final ThoughtsLearn more about Tracy and her work at https://www.tracyrekart.com/

Welcome to our first mini-episode, live from the lighthouse at Mukilteo, Washington State!In this brief conversation, Matt Baker-White, an early adopter of our "Lucky or Good" approach, explains the difference between focusing on outcomes versus focusing on effective processes in his work at the Wild Rockies Field Institute.

How Vulnerability and Listening to Weak Signals Can Save Lives: A Conversation with Gareth Lock In this episode, Gareth Lock (from the Human Diver) shares a powerful personal story about a near-fatal cardiac event and explores how vulnerability, systems thinking, and recognizing weak signals can improve safety in outdoor and diving environments.Key Topics:Gareth’s personal experience with a critical cardiac event and key lessons learnedThe importance of listening to weak signals and small cues in safety managementHow vulnerability models foster a safety culture that encourages speaking upThe concept of local rationality and understanding decision-making in contextContrasting linear risk analysis with holistic systems thinking approachesThe benefits of framing risk positively: beneficial risks and growth opportunitiesFail-safe design principles: creating resilient systems that recover gracefullyThe role of cognitive biases like hindsight bias and ways to counteract themApplying safety science concepts to outdoor education and adventure activitiesThe significance of language and shared vocabulary in safety conversationsResources & Links:Gareth Lock - The Human Diver

In the world of adaptive outdoor education, the balance between safety and adventure is tenuous. One common challenge that many organizations face is the fear of failure among staff, especially in high-consequence situations. In this post, we’ll explore insights shared by Jaime Overmeyer of the Breckenridge Outdoor Education Center on how to transform the stigma of failure into a powerful tool for growth, confidence, and innovation. By creating a balance between clear policies with trust and flexibility for innovation, Jaime describes how she has built an organizational mindset of "failing forward" on the pathway of continuous improvement.