The IRF Podcast

David Osman of IRF is joined by Manoj Pradhan, the Co-Founder of Talking Heads Macro. ----more---- In this podcast, Manoj discusses some of the key aspects of his latest book that he has co-authored with Charles Goodhart, which is entitled: “The Unanchored Central Banker: Demography, Fiscal Instability and an Erosion of the Central Bank’s Inflation-Fighting Ability.” He assesses several medium-term structural trends that are changing the longer-term outlook for inflation, and therefore the parameters for the operation of fiscal and monetary policies. Manoj explains why a combination of demographic trends, ageing populations, future healthcare & social-care requirements, artificial intelligence, deglobalization and rising anti-immigration attitudes will make the future economic environment very different from the past. He sets out the reasons why the government’s fiscal position is on an unsustainable trajectory and offers some innovative suggestions to tackle this problem. Manoj explains how these fiscal problems will create difficult choices for politicians and policymakers, leading to higher inflation, trending above 3%, and to higher interest rates. He concludes with a discussion of the investment implications of these changes for global asset allocators.   Talking Heads Macro (THM) was established in 2016 by Manoj and his Co-Founder, Charles Goodhart, the renowned former member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee and Professor at the London School of Economics. Previously Manoj and Charles worked at Morgan Stanley, where Manoj was the Managing Director with responsibility for the Global Economics Team. Talking Heads Macro generates macroeconomic trade recommendations on a 6-12-month horizon by showing how current developments fit into longer-term themes. In 2020, Manoj and Charles produced a highly influential book, which was entitled: “The Great Demographic Reversal – Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality and an Inflation Revival”.  

David Osman of IRF is joined by Danielle DiMartino Booth, the Founder, CEO & Chief Strategist of QI Research. ----more---- In this podcast Danielle DiMartino Booth explains how her detailed analysis of the underlying trends in the US economy indicates that the US economic output is slowing rapidly. Danielle’s non-consensus view suggests that in the year ahead both economic growth and inflation are likely to be weaker than the central bank’s own forecasts. This raises questions about the changing conduct of monetary policy under the leadership of the new chairman of the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh. Danielle argues that the Fed’s current forward guidance seems to be misleading, which has implications for the federal funds target rate and the shape of the Treasury bond yield curve. Danielle discusses the implications of likely Democrat victories in the midterm elections in November for the House and for the Senate, with particular reference to the probable impact on fiscal policy. Danielle then discusses the outlook for the stock market, the AI investment boom and the US dollar, highlighting the some of the more attractive investment opportunities and key risk factors. Prior to QI Research, which she founded in 2015, Danielle spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas where she served as an analyst and senior advisor to the President, Richard Fisher. Before serving in the public sector, Danielle lived in New York, and worked at the DLJ investment bank and at Credit Suisse. Danielle is a frequent keynote speaker at conferences and seminars, a regular commentator in the financial media, and the author in 2017 of the book: “Fed Up: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America”. QI Research is an independent research and analytics firm that serves institutional clients, family offices and commercial real estate professionals. QI Research has become a trusted voice in macroeconomic analysis that is known for its bold, independent approach.  

David Osman of IRF is joined by Ron William, the Founder of RW Advisory. In this podcast Ron assesses the underlying cyclical trends in the global financial markets and highlights those sectors and investment styles that should perform well during the remainder of this year from a structural and tactical perspective. ----more---- Ron then discusses the importance of his business cycle roadmap and what it implies for 2027. He says that this, in conjunction with the unfolding convergence of short-, medium- and long-term cycles in the next 5 – 6 years, indicates that we are in a prolonged late-cycle period of slower economic growth and inflation volatility due to potential energy, fiscal and geopolitical shocks. Ron discusses what this will likely mean for short term interest rates, long-term government bond yields and the yield curve in the US and elsewhere over the next 18 months, including the potential for a “generational regime shift”. Ron also explains what this means for world stock markets, with particular reference to the US and the AI investment theme. In addition, he discusses the outlook for the currency and commodity markets, highlighting the prospects the US dollar, gold and Bitcoin in both the near term and the longer term. Ron concludes by highlighting his high-conviction investment recommendations for his preferred markets, sectors and styles, as well as identifying the main risks that investors should watch out for.   Ron William is a market strategist with over 20 years of experience producing macro research, trading strategies and insightful non-consensus ideas for leading economic research and institutional firms. Ron is also a behavioural finance expert, trading psychologist and performance coach. RW Advisory specialises in blended, top-down, semi-discretionary analysis, driven by his cycles roadmap and by his proprietary timing models, which use both quantitative and qualitative techniques.

David Osman of IRF is joined by Chris Watling, the Founder, CEO & Chief Market Strategist at Longview Economics. ----more---- In this podcast, Chris Watling explains how the A.I. investment boom is impacting on the US economy and elsewhere. He discusses the underlying trends in income and consumption with reference to the wealth-effect of the A.I.-driven rise in the US stock market. He points out how US economic growth appears to be broadening in response to the credit cycle and the industrial cycle. Chris discusses the outlook for inflation, with particular reference to the current geopolitical concerns and the rise in energy costs. He then assesses the likely differences in the monetary policy responses in Europe, the US and Japan. He also explains how the conduct of US monetary policy is likely to evolve under the new Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh and how that will eventually influence other central banks around the world. This leads into a discussion about the outlook for the US dollar. Then, in conjunction with his view on the prospects for the world economy, Chris sets out some of his key global strategy recommendations for asset allocations in the Bond, Equity and Commodity markets, including his views on several of the most important emerging markets.   Prior to founding LongView Economics in 2003, Chris Watling was the European Economist and Strategist at Cazenove where he developed his proprietary Risk Appetite Gauge Models, which are also known as “RAG” Models. When combined with SELL-off indicators, these “RAG” Models have proved to be very successful in calling equity market direction and timing waves of risk aversion in global markets. LongView Economics is an Independent Global Macro and Strategy Advisory Boutique that is located in London. Their pioneering research approach brings Macro and Markets together, drawing on Deep Macro Analysis of the most important global themes, cycles and events in order to make actionable, often contrarian, investment and trading recommendations.

David Osman of IRF is joined by Paul Cavey, the Founder of East Asia Econ. ----more---- In this podcast, Paul Cavey of East Asia Econ explains that there are two terms of trades shocks playing through in East Asia at present, one positive, one negative. He points out that the A.I. boom and the strength of the global semiconductor sector have helped the stock markets of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan to reach new record highs recently, despite the Gulf war and the oil price shock. With respect to China, Paul discusses the evidence that suggests the Chinese economy is stabilising and should pick up once there’s a US-Iranian peace agreement and the oil market starts to normalise. In Japan, Paul says there are expectations that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates to combat the rise in inflationary pressures, thereby helping to support a stronger yen exchange rate, but this is not a done deal. In South Korea and Taiwan, Paul highlights how the growth-inflation trade off is influencing monetary policy and could result in a strengthening of the Korean won and the Taiwanese dollar versus the US dollar.   Paul Cavey has been living in East Asia for over twenty years – in Taipei, Beijing, Hong Kong and Tokyo. Paul is currently living in Taiwan and is fluent in Mandarin Chinese. He has been analysing the Economies of the East Asian region, with a particular focus on China, for over 25 years. Previously, Paul has been the Chief Regional Economist at several leading firms, notably the Economist Intelligence Unit, Macquarie Securities and Wellington Management. East Asia Econ provides high-quality research and thematic analysis of Macroeconomic and Market Issues in China, Japan, Korea and Taiwan.”

David Osman of IRF is joined by Dinny McMahon, the Head of China Markets Research at Trivium China. ----more---- In this podcast, Dinny McMahon assesses China’s economic policies and the underlying state of the economy, including the ongoing deep-rooted problems in the property sector. Dinny then discusses the extent to which China might continue to fail to achieve its objective of a consumption-led growth model in the next few years. He questions the appropriateness of China’s fiscal policy and monetary stance, given the extent to which the economy has been flirting with deflation for the past three years. Dinny also reviews the progress that China has made with respect to the internationalization of the renminbi, as the dollar loses some of its global status. In addition, he notes the improving performance of Chinese equities since the lows in 2024 and discusses the various factors that are making the mainland stock market more attractive to investors. He concludes with a discussion of China’s main objectives for the period of the next 5-Year Plan. Before joining Trivium China in 2020, Dinny McMahon was a Fellow at Marco Polo, a China-focused think-tank. Dinny is also a Global Fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and an Economic Advisor at ShoreVest Partners. He is a former Banking & Financial Markets Analyst at Enodo Economics and a former journalist who was based in China for many years for the Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones Newswires. In addition, Dinny is the author of ‘China’s Great Wall of Debt’, which was published in 2018. Trivium China’s policy research team produce readable, primary source-driven analysis on China's political economy. Trivium takes a unique approach to China analysis, combining deep expertise, primary-source research and on-the-ground China experience. Their mission is to ensure their readers never miss a critical policy development.

David Osman of IRF is joined by Carl Weinberg the Founder, Managing Director and Chief Economist at High Frequency Economics. In this podcast Carl Weinberg assesses the latest data and discusses the risks to the outlook for the US economy, with particular reference to the impact on economic growth and consumer price inflation of a labour market that has reached the level of full employment. Carl then reviews the risks and the uncertain impact on the US economy and the rest of the world of the Trump Administration’s tariff measures, given the erratic nature of the tariffs and their illegality. In addition, Carl discusses the conduct of US monetary policy and the outlook for US interest rates with reference to the prospective changes in the Chair of the Federal Reserve in May. Prior to founding High Frequency Economics in 1988, Carl Weinberg was the Chief Economist at Shearson Lehman Brothers. Carl has also worked at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in Paris as a member of the economic forecasting unit. He currently teaches a graduate course in international finance at New York University. High Frequency Economics (HFE) provides sophisticated investors with insights on the global economy and financial markets. HFE produces unbiased and provocative analysis that assists the investment decisions of institutional investors.  

David Osman of IRF is joined by Jeffrey Christian, the Founder and Managing Partner of the CPM Group. ----more---- In this podcast Jeffrey Christian provides an informative rundown on the outlook for commodity investments in 2026 and beyond. He begins with an assessment of the prospects for the demand, supply and prices of precious metals, both in the near term and in the longer run. In the energy sector, Jeffrey considers the various factors that make the outlook for crude oil prices uncertain this year, not least because of potential geopolitical developments in Venezuela, the Middle East and Ukraine, as well as the current erratic nature of US foreign policies. He expects oil prices to remain relatively steady, while natural gas prices have some upside potential. Jeffrey then discusses his preferred commodities and concerns in the base metals sector and the agricultural markets. The episode concludes with an assessment of the various factors that are impacting on the flow of funds into the commodities sector and Jeffrey explains why he believes that global asset allocators should have a substantial position in commodities in a multi-asset portfolio for 2026 and beyond. Jeffrey Christian has been a prominent analyst and advisor on the commodities markets since the 1970s, with work spanning precious metals, energy markets, base metals, the agricultural markets and economic analysis. Founded in 1986, the CPM Group is an independent commodities research, consulting, asset management and investment banking firm that provides comprehensive research, analysis and advisory services. The CPM Group is also known for its overall economic analysis of the commodities markets and its expertise in financial engineering.  

David Osman of IRF is joined by Ron William, the Founder of RW Advisory. ----more---- This podcast assesses the longer-term cyclical factors that indicate global financial markets could reach a major turning point in 2026 or later in this decade. Ron discusses the outlook for inflation and the various elements that could create an echo of the high-inflation era of the 1970s. This has further bullish implications for the prices of gold and silver.   Ron then explains his concerns about the rapidly rising A.I.-related demand for energy, which is now outstripping the predicted supply trends. He also assesses the outlook for interest rates, government bond yield and world stock markets, before concluding with a discussion of the prospects for the US dollar and some other key currencies in the foreign exchange markets.   Ron William is a market strategist with over 20 years of experience producing macro research, trading strategies and insightful non-consensus ideas for leading economic research and institutional firms. Ron is also a behavioural finance expert, trading psychologist and performance coach.   RW Advisory specialises in blended, top-down, semi-discretionary analysis, driven by cycles and by proprietary timing models, which use both quantitative and qualitative techniques.

David Osman of IRF is joined by Paul Cavey, the Founder of East Asia Econ. ----more---- In this podcast, Paul Cavey discusses the various cyclical and structural themes that are influencing the economic outlook for China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. He explains why he thinks that the overall deflationary forces within the Chinese economy may be easing and why there is scope for some cautious optimism about China’s economic outlook relative to the current downbeat consensus expectations. Paul then highlights the key issues that are impacting on the main currencies in the region, noting the significance of the weakness of the Chinese renminbi and the Japanese yen in recent years. He goes on to discuss the two shocks that have had an impact on Japan’s economy, the US tariff shock and the pick-up in the annual rate of Japanese inflation. He assesses what these shocks could mean in terms of the policies of the new prime minister, with respect to Japan’s interest rates and the exchange rate, given the more stimulative stance of fiscal policy. Paul then discusses the impact of the global A.I. trend on the regional semiconductor sector in general, and on the Taiwanese economy and the South Korean economy in particular.   Paul Cavey has been analysing the economies of East Asia, with a particular focus on China, for over 25 years. Previously Paul was the Chief Regional Economist at several leading firms, notably the Economist Intelligence Unit, Macquarie Securities and Wellington Management. East Asia Econ provides high-quality analysis of macro and market issues in China, Japan, Korea and Taiwan.