Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen

Henry warned Republicans they were in for a terrible night—and called it close!—but how could anyone have anticipated an electoral massacre of such proportions? Henry's got a short rant to go over what we know so far and to consider some of the popular takes on what went wrong.We're taking a week off, but Beyond the Polls will be back after that to get an early start on assessing the road to '28.

Midterms are just days away, so it's busy season for everyone in the election prediction biz. This week, there's no rant and no ads; just Henry and a couple of sleep-deprived friends to help you get your bearings ahead of another high-stakes cycle. First up is Sean Patrick Maloney—former U.S. Ambassador to the OECD and the CEO of the Coalition for Prediction Markets. He joins to explain the derivative markets that have shaken up polling. Next, Cook Political's Jessica Taylor surveys the Senate seats swinging in the balance. And lastly, Scott Braddock of The Quorum Report drops in to discuss the uncharacteristically tight races in Texas. Be sure to follow Henry on X to catch his Election Night livestream! We'll be up reporting the returns from poll closures on the Atlantic and remain until the Alaskans have their say.

There's no getting around the fact that Republicans are unpopular these days and that they're in for an unpleasant midterm. But should we really believe the flood will reach the Midwest or Rust Belt districts that elevated President Trump to double-digit margins? Patrick Rufini, founding partner of Echelon Insights, doesn't think so. He sits down with Henry to make his case. Plus, Henry draws an important distinction between the lead and the level of predicted vote share to explain why all 2-point edges should not be considered equal. And for today's ad of the week, he examines the viral attack and response in the especially fierce battle for Ohio between Vivek Ramaswamy and Amy Acton.Can't get enough of Henry's election analysis? Subscribe to his free weekly newsletter, "Margin of Victory," for invaluable insights every Wednesday. 

The midterms are just weeks away, and Democrats are still enjoying a historically large lead in the generic congressional ballot. In response, the president is jetting about to rally support in key states. However, unlike the boldly expansive campaigns of MAGA ascendancy, his visits to safe districts reveal a defensive strategy aimed at mitigating losses. Henry rants his way through this development and draws attention to others that casual observers might miss, as he comes closer to finalizing his big election prediction.Plus, we look at two ads that bet it all on Independents. Stay tuned till the end for Henry's thoughts on late pitches for these ambitious campaigns to flip a Minnesota Senate seat and Montana's 1st Congressional District.Follow the midterms like a pro! Subscribe to Henry's weekly newsletter, "Margin of Victory," for invaluable insights every Wednesday. 

There's good news and bad news, Toto: We are still in Kansas, but it's not the safe state we'd grown used to. With the midterms less than a month away, and reports confirming the GOP's move to divert funds to tightening races in the agricultural belt, Henry opts to fly solo this week to survey the windswept field ahead of the battle. Considerable movement has occurred in response to the president's bold maneuvering after returning to office, particularly among the Independents and MAGA-lite Republicans who helped elect him. But is a complete leveling inevitable? Not so, says Henry, who offers a lesson from the 2022 midterms that Republicans have curiously left on the table so far. Plus, Michigan Senate candidate Mike Rogers has a new ad that reveals an important detail about this cycle's swing state playbook. Can't wait til Thursday for Henry's election insights? Subscribe to his weekly newsletter, "Margin of Victory," for an early look at his latest thoughts on the approaching midterms.

Americans are often in a hurry, always looking for ways to save time. Yet back in the olden days, whenever Americans held an election, the public had to wait until every ballot was tallied before an official announcement of the results. Though that remains the method for squeaker contests, election-day reporting outlets strive to stay ahead of the curve wherever possible. Enter the exit pollers. Henry sits down with Joe Lenski, Executive Vice President of the survey research firm SSRS and co-director of The Voter Poll. Joe's here to explain how his team goes about sampling actual ballot-casters so the American people can get quicker (yet still accurate) calls on election night. Plus, keeping predictive power in mind, Henry reverse-engineers the generic ballot from the past three midterm elections to gauge who will win the House tug-of-war in November. And we take in Susan Collins' clever pitch to her Red Sox country voters about Yankee Chuck Schumer's attempts to influence the contest in Maine.Catch Henry's latest PostOpinions piece to see his midterm model. While you're there, subscribe to his weekly newsletter, "Margin of Victory," for invaluable insights every Wednesday. 

The polling business has undergone profound changes since the start of the 21st century, especially in its response to new technology and the altered habits of potential respondents. We often hear from representatives of the media or university end of polling, but today Henry sits down with a guest who has skin in the game: professional political pollster Jon Lerner. The two discuss how these new entrants have changed the playing field, address the live question about the relative value of modeling, and consider alternative methods for addressing demographically uneven response rates. Plus, Republican candidates are publicly breaking with Trump in political advertisements and Henry rants about why they're doing so and what this portends. And speaking of ads, we've got a trio sampler of effective approaches to kick off general election season: one positive, one negative, and one that's just plain funny.To stay on top of campaign season, sign up for Henry’s weekly "Margin of Victory" newsletter. You'll receive indispensable insights every Wednesday for the price of...free!

After last week's tour of competitive House races, it's time to look to the Senate battlegrounds. Though nobody can predict the future, our friend Kyle Kondik brings his Sabato's Crystal Ball to assess this cycle's key toss-ups, leans, and tight holds—the races that will decide who controls the upper chamber. He and Henry dart about the map to consider the latest on the campaigns in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Maine, Iowa, Ohio, Texas, and Alaska. Plus, since we live in an era of models rather than polls, Henry advises on how to look under the hood for a firm's methodology before cranking up to take the results to the bank. Be sure to sign up for Henry’s "Margin of Victory" newsletter for his election insights every Wednesday!

The primaries are nearly finished, and Labor Day is behind us—that means it's officially midterm season! To mark the occasion, Henry catches up with Cook Political Report's Erin Covey to discuss the races that look competitive now in mid-September and how she'll gauge contests as we approach November. From consideration of surprising events and the movement of outside expenditures, Henry and Erin dive deep into the circumstances that might yield a good election return for either party in a midterm that's more of a toss-up than polls might suggest. Henry has tonight's RNC midterm convention in mind as he rants through the kind of messaging Republican candidates should adopt for this unfavorable cycle. Plus, he thinks through one of the great puzzles of the current system: If the parties are increasingly doing the heavy lifting on ballots, what should we make of the record sums being spent on candidates?

With all due respect to grammarians, when we at Beyond the Polls think of New Hampshire, hard facts and rock-solid political analysis from our friend Dante Scala are foremost in mind. In anticipation of Tuesday's Democratic primary, he and Henry discuss the tectonic political shift in the Granite State now that Jeanne Shaheen is retiring—along with the new presidential primary ordering that has pushed New Hampshire back in the Democratic Party's queue. Plus, Henry looks ahead to the midterms, finds a map made relatively favorable to Republicans, and warns Democrats aiming to take the House about the unique challenge they face. And he homes in on an ad in the New Hampshire 01 primary where Maura Sullivan accuses opponent Stefany Shaheen of nepotism. Be sure to sign up for Henry’s weekly newsletter, Margin of Victory, for his election insights every Wednesday!