STUMP - Death and Taxes

A major mess in Westchester County, New York leads to a few comments on risk management — from the voter side as well as the Board of Elections side. We don’t yet know why there has been a malfunction in the process in Westchester County, but voting early instead of waiting until Election Day may be a better strategy for many going forward, don’t you think?Episode LinksUpdate (after recording audio): Looks like it was re-programming AFTER THE TESTING WAS DONEThe Croton Chronicle: Westchester County voting problems traced to programming issue, state officials say.3 Nov 2026, lohud.com: Westchester voting problems traced to programming issue, state officials sayThe New York State Board of Elections had identified no similar voting-equipment problems outside Westchester County as of Tuesday afternoon, a state election official said.Kathleen McGrath, the state board’s director of public information, said the Westchester problem stemmed from a change affecting a contest in one municipality after the county’s Election Day voting equipment had been prepared and tested. The change required an update to the county’s election programming.I will definitely be having a part two on this, because I HAVE THOUGHTS.Anyway, the ballot printers may be off the hook. North Salem NewsWestchester ballots rejected by scanners; voting continues3 Nov, last updated: 10:57am ETThe pre-printed Election Day ballots being used across Westchester County were produced by Phoenix Graphics, a Rochester-based company with a history of errors involving election materials. The company, whose election-printing operation is branded Phoenix Graphics Election Printing, describes itself as New York State’s largest supplier of ballot materials and says it serves 46 counties.Election officials have distinguished Tuesday’s pre-printed ballots from those printed on demand during early voting, when voters did not experience the same scanning problems.In 2020, Phoenix Graphics produced absentee ballot packages for Brooklyn voters that included return oath envelopes bearing other voters’ names and addresses. Approximately 99,000 packages from the affected print run were replaced at the company’s expense because officials could not determine precisely which packages contained errors. A subsequent New York City Department of Investigation inquiry found deficiencies in the company’s quality controls but no evidence of intentional interference with the printing or assembly process.In 2023, Phoenix Graphics acknowledged a separate error involving Nassau County voter information cards that incorrectly identified recipients as Democrats regardless of their actual party affiliations. Election officials said the underlying registration records remained accurate. The company attributed the mistake to human error and agreed to provide corrected cards at no cost to taxpayers.State campaign-finance filings also document contributions by Phoenix Graphics to organizations associated with both major parties. Between 2010 and 2020, reported contributions included $60,000 combined to two Monroe County Republican committees and $28,400 to the Monroe County Democratic Committee.The Westchester County Board of Elections has urged voters to remain in line and complete their ballots as directed by poll workers. Ballots that cannot be scanned are being secured in designated orange emergency ballot bags, which officials said will remain monitored and will be counted in accordance with election procedures.Westchester County Board of Elections: Statement (accessed at noon ET)2Published: 03 November 2026Your Vote Matters. Your Vote Will Count.The Westchester County Board of Elections (BOE) is aware of an issue involving paper ballots that is preventing voting machines from accepting ballots at polling locations throughout the County. The Westchester Board of Elections wants to reassure every voter that your vote matters, your ballot will be secure and your vote will be counted.The Board of Elections is in constant communication with New York State officials, Westchester County Government and poll workers to address this issue and ensure that voting continues with as little disruption as possible. In the meantime, voters should continue to complete their paper ballots as instructed by poll workers. Ballots will be placed in designated orange emergency ballot bags, which will remain secure and monitored. These ballots will subsequently be counted in accordance with applicable election procedures.We strongly encourage all voters to remain in line, exercise patience and, most importantly, cast their ballots.The BOE sincerely apologizes to voters and poll workers for the inconvenience this situation has caused, and the BOE recognizes the importance of a smooth and efficient voting process. They are taking every necessary step to address the issue as quickly as possible.Let us be absolutely clear: Every eligible vote will be counted. No voter should be discouraged from participating in this election because of this issue. Your voice matters. Your vote matters. Please stay in line and vote.Screenshot of Lawler tweet:WESTCHESTER COUNTY EXECUTIVE KEN JENKINS STATEMENT ON BALLOT ISSUES IN COUNTYNew York’s 17th District: WikipediaSTUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Get full access to STUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more at marypatcampbell.substack.com/subscribe

This is mainly a wonky look at trade-offs in Social Security reforms — some of the changes that can be made: payroll tax rates, maximum salary amount to be taxed, salary base for benefit credits, weights in the benefit formula — but at the highest levels, the trade-offs to be made in increasing taxes and in decreasing (or even increasing) benefits. Links are below to the American Academy of Actuaries, UPenn’s Penn Wharton Budget Model applied to Social Security reform, Andrew Biggs’s commentary using the Wharton model, and a recent Congressional hearing on the matter.Episode LinksAmerican Academy of ActuariesSocial Security Challenge! - try out different options to close the gap in Social Security sustainability in fundingMarch 2026: Reforming Social Security Sooner Rather Than LaterKey Points • Social Security’s combined trust fund reserves are projected to be depleted around 2034, when its income would be able to pay only about 80% of the benefits scheduled for its anticipated 81 million beneficiaries. • It is important that Congress immediately focus on this issue; delay narrows the viable options to those that rely on significant tax increases. If Congress does not act by 2034, we will be faced with:– An automatic 20% cut in benefits for those already receiving benefits, – An immediate increase in Social Security taxes of almost 25%, or – Some combination of benefit reductions and tax increases. • It is too late for benefit reductions on new beneficiaries to have much impact in avoiding the upcoming depletion.August 2026: Comments to Senate Committee on Finance on Social Security SolvencyHighlights from the 2026 Social Security Trustees Report: One-Pager PlacematCongressU.S. Senate Committee on Finance5 Aug 2026: Exploring Process Approaches for Addressing Social Security Solvency[video at link — starts at about 21 minutes in, btw]Member statements:Crapo Statement at Hearing on Process Approaches for Addressing Social Security Solvency “For decades, the Social Security Board of Trustees has recommended that Congress act quickly to address the program’s long-term financial challenges. According to the Trustees’ latest projections, the Old-Age and Survivor’s Insurance Trust Fund will be exhausted in late 2032. If Congress fails to act before then, incoming program revenues will be sufficient to pay only 78 percent of promised benefits. “Congress has a responsibility to protect and strengthen Social Security for current beneficiaries and future generations. The longer we wait, the more difficult this challenge will become. “The last comprehensive effort to improve Social Security’s solvency took place over 40 years ago and culminated in the Social Security Amendments of 1983. Those reforms were preceded by high-level bipartisan negotiations, informed and facilitated by the work of the National Commission on Social Security Reform, or what was known as the ‘Greenspan Commission.’ That process demonstrated the value of creating a forum where policymakers could work through difficult issues and build consensus on a bipartisan basis. “More than two decades later, I participated in another bipartisan effort to develop recommendations to address our nation’s long-term fiscal challenges, along with Senator Dick Durbin, the Democratic co-author of one of the process bills that will be discussed today. As part of its work, the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform, often referred to as the Bowles Simpson Commission, developed a bipartisan Social Security solvency plan. While the Commission’s recommendations ultimately did not receive the support necessary to move forward, its work has informed subsequent Social Security solvency discussions. “As Social Security approaches a pivotal moment, Members of Congress have proposed a variety of process reforms designed to facilitate bipartisan discussions and help develop lasting solutions. Today’s hearing will examine those approaches and consider what lessons can be drawn from past efforts. Wyden Warns Social Security Commission is Fast Track for Gutting Benefits The Trust Fund will be depleted before the end of the next presidential administration. Today Republican members of this panel will claim they have the solution: an unaccountable “commission” that will rubber stamp benefit cuts like increasing the retirement age. Every time Republicans get their hands on these sorts of ideas for Social Security, life gets worse for older people that count on it to get by. Thanks to Trump and the “Big Beautiful Bill,” the crisis is coming even faster, in 2032 instead of 2033. Senators elected this fall will be in office when Social Security becomes insolvent. Republicans started this fire, and now they are claiming they are the only ones who can put it out. The consequences of insolvency are severe: Americans who paid into Social Security out of every paycheck during their working years will no longer receive their full benefits. 1 in 4 seniors rely on their earned Social Security benefits for virtually all of their income. That number is even higher for people receiving disability benefits or kids who lost a parent. Trump and his MAGA allies gave huge tax breaks to billionaires and massive corporations last year, and that bill plundered Social Security to the tune of $168 billion. Don’t take it from me, that number comes from the Social Security actuary’s office itself. Here’s my bottom line: I want to work on a bipartisan basis to fix this problem and protect everyday retirees from missing out on their earned benefits in a little more than six years. We can do that by updating Social Security to reflect the economy of America today and ask billionaires to pay their fair share through the payroll and income tax. That’s it. I wish the Finance Committee was here to have that substantive debate. Instead, the concept being discussed today would act as a shortcut for Republicans to carry out their long sought goal of slashing Social Security benefits for retirees and raising taxes for the middle class. Colleagues, in my view, supporting a scheme like that would be a dereliction of duty for any member of Congress. This is the work we were sent to Congress to undertake. Handing off that responsibility to someone else is passing the buck. In the words of basketball great Allen Iverson, and I quote, “We’re talking about practice. Not a game. We’re talking about practice.” Instead of “talking about talking,” this body should get to work on finding a resolution to the Social Security solvency challenge and having that debate in public view. Democrats on this committee have put forward their ideas. Through our plans, Social Security can be secured indefinitely into the future without a single dime cut to a current or future retiree. That means no raising the retirement age, no cost-of-living haircuts, and no means-testing benefits. All we need to do is require billionaires, who have seen their wealth skyrocket to over $9 trillion this year while working people struggle with their grocery bills, to pay their fair share. Andrew BiggsThese are from his Substack:Little Known Facts: The two charts any Social Security reformer should understandLet me give the charts before the explanation(s):Penn Wharton AnalysisAndrew Biggs is using the Penn Wharton Budget Model: Seven Social Security Reform Packages: Effects on Growth and GenerationsThis is from 21 Sept 2026.Only Package F is keeping the tax rates the same in the Penn Wharton analysis.STUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Get full access to STUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more at marypatcampbell.substack.com/subscribe

While the state of Sen. Mitch McConnell’s health (and potential “is he alive/dead?” Schrodinger’s cat-like situation) plays out right now, I look at the real issue: there is no way to deal with incapacitated members of Congress. I look at prior situations in the Senate itself, and then I do go off on some tangents: historical situations where leaders’ deaths were covered up and more recent situations where a bad health situation was allowed to linger before the plug was finally pulled.Episode Links and TextOn Congressional Incapacitation26 Mar 2020, Bipartisan Policy Center: What If a Member of Congress Is Severely Incapacitated and Cannot Perform the Duties of the Job? Presidential incapacitation, either anticipated and short term or unexpected and longer term, can be handled by a transfer of power to the Vice President under the procedures of the 25th amendment.But if a member of Congress becomes incapacitated, there is no legal avenue to replace that person.Recently, many in Congress have been trying to deal with the issue of members unable to come to Congress, either due to sickness or quarantine, or because hygiene recommendations or logistical issues makes showing up at Congress difficult or impossible. A separate issue, however, is what to do if a member is so sick or severely incapacitated that they could not perform the duties of the job (either remotely or in person).Congressional history is filled with examples of members who have had severe, debilitating illnesses. Senator Karl Mundt of North Dakota suffered a stroke and was absent from the Senate for the final three years of his term. Illness forced Senator Carter Glass of Virginia to be absent from the Senate for nearly two years. In the case of Glass, citizens of Virginia petitioned courts to remove Glass from his seat, as it was effectively vacant. The court refused to take action.Never has a sitting member of Congress been removed from office due to incapacitation.Karl MundtU.S. Senate BiographyFrom 1948 until his retirement in 1973, South Dakota senator Karl Mundt was known as a fierce opponent of communism. As a member—and eventually ranking member—of the Committee on Government Operations and its Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, Mundt worked to expose communists in the government. In 1954 he chaired the Subcommittee on Investigations for the Army-McCarthy hearings, remaining loyal to Senator Joseph McCarthy. Mundt gained prominence with two major investigations into bribery allegations against officials at the Agriculture Department and the Pentagon. Mundt voted for cloture to end debate on the Civil Rights Act of 1964 after striking a deal with Republican Leader Everett Dirksen. Mundt also became one of the leading conservationists in the Senate, which earned him an award from The World Wildlife Fund in 1969. After he suffered a debilitating stroke in 1969, Senate leaders took the unprecedented step of removing Mundt from his committee assignments.Wikipedia: IllnessOn November 23, 1969, Mundt suffered a severe stroke and was subsequently unable to attend sessions of Congress, although he received extensive speech and physical therapy. His wife, Mary, led his staff in Mundt's place and refused calls for the crippled Senator to resign. Mundt was stripped of his committee assignments by the Senate Republican Conference in 1972, but he remained in office through the end of his term on January 3, 1973.[3] He did not seek reelection in 1972, and was succeeded in the Senate by Democrat James G. Abourezk.Carter GlassWikipedia: Family, decline, deathCarter Glass was a Methodist.[18] When he was twenty-eight, Glass married Aurelia McDearmon Caldwell, a school teacher. They had four children. She died of a heart ailment in 1937.[19] Glass remarried in 1940 at the age of 82. His second wife, Mary Scott, was his constant companion as his health began to fail over the next few years. They lived at the Mayflower Hotel Apartments in Washington, D.C. Starting in 1942, Glass began suffering from various age-related illnesses and could not attend Senate meetings after that time. However, he refused to resign from the Senate, despite many requests that he do so, and even kept his committee chairmanship. Many visitors were also kept away from him by his wife.[20]A confidential 1943 analysis of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee by Isaiah Berlin for the British Foreign Office stated that Glass[21]“...is very old and frail and something of a legend in the South. The fruit-growing interests of his State make him an opponent of the reciprocal trade pacts, but on all other questions he has loyally supported the President’s anti-Isolationist policy. He cannot have many years of active service before him.”Glass died of congestive heart failure in Washington, D.C., on May 28, 1946. He is interred at Spring Hill Cemetery in Lynchburg. His fellow sponsor of the Glass-Owen Act, Senator Robert Latham Owen, lies nearby.Gemini Conversation and ExcerptsLink to Gemini Conversation: https://share.gemini.google/i03cKVsS52d4A few items:McConnell leadership positions he still retains:While the Constitution provides no clear mechanism to force an incapacitated senator to vacate their seat, committee assignments and chairmanships are governed separately by party rules and Senate resolutions.Though he stepped down as the Republican Leader in January 2025, McConnell still holds several significant positions in the 119th Congress (2025–2026). As of July 2026, he holds the following roles:Full and Joint Committees* Senate Committee on Rules and Administration (Chair)* Joint Committee on Printing (Chair)* Joint Committee on the Library (Vice Chair)Subcommittees* Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense (Chair) — He also sits on the full Senate Appropriations Committee.* Agriculture Subcommittee on Food and Nutrition, Specialty Crops, Organics, and Research (Chair) — He also sits on the full Senate Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry Committee.Because committee business often relies on narrow party margins, his ongoing hospitalization is actively bottlenecking Senate operations. Without his vote, the Appropriations Committee is currently split evenly between Republicans and Democrats, which has stalled scheduled markups and temporarily blocked the advancement of defense spending bills for the 2027 fiscal year.Discussing a “25th Amendment” for Congress….The Current RealityWithout a new Constitutional Amendment, a sitting member’s seat only becomes officially vacant under three conditions:* Death* Voluntary Resignation* Expulsion (which has historically only been used for treason or severe criminal corruption, never for a medical crisis).LawfareBecause the Constitution gives each chamber the exclusive power to “be the Judge of the Elections, Returns and Qualifications of its own Members,” the Senate itself must recognize a vacancy before a state governor can act. If an incapacitated senator cannot resign, the Senate is effectively stuck at an impasse unless they are willing to attempt an unprecedented two-thirds expulsion vote.Me: Yes, I don't see any of the Senators, many of whom are aged themselves and may undergo extended hospitalization and return, voting for expulsion just due to medical incapacitation... which may also complicate any use of a Constitutional Amendment anyway. It seems it needs something where it comes from the state/constitutents Gemini:You’ve hit on the exact structural flaw in relying on the Senate to police itself. Expulsion was designed for treason or extreme corruption, not for a severe medical crisis. Because many senators are elderly and protective of their own institutional power, they have a vested interest in not setting a precedent of ejecting a colleague for health reasons.Because of that inherent conflict of interest, a Constitutional Amendment designed to address incapacity would likely need to bypass the chamber entirely and put the tr… Get full access to STUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more at marypatcampbell.substack.com/subscribe

April is the cruelest month in dropping all sorts of awareness topics on our heads: Autism, Cancer (various types - I covered testicular cancer earlier this month), financial literacy, and poetry… suppose we become “aware” of all this? What are we supposed to do with all this awareness and knowledge? Episode LinksPoemsT.S. Eliot, The Waste LandI. The Burial of the DeadApril is the cruellest month, breedingLilacs out of the dead land, mixingMemory and desire, stirringDull roots with spring rain.The Poetry Foundation, Poem Guide by Tyler Malone: The Waste LandThe initial declaration of The Waste Land—“April is the cruellest month”—is clear enough in meaning, even if it defies readers’ expectations. The opening is a subversion of the first lines of the General Prologue of Geoffrey Chaucer’s The Canterbury Tales.General Prologue of Chaucer’s The Canterbury TalesWhan that Aprille with his shoures soote,The droghte of March hath perced to the roote,And bathed every veyne in swich licóurOf which vertú engendred is the flour;Whan Zephirus eek with his swete breethInspired hath in every holt and heethThe tendre croppes, and the yonge sonneHath in the Ram his halfe cours y-ronne,And smale foweles maken melodye,That slepen al the nyght with open ye,So priketh hem Natúre in hir corages,Thanne longen folk to goon on pilgrimages,And palmeres for to seken straunge strondes,To ferne halwes, kowthe in sondry londes;And specially, from every shires endeOf Engelond, to Caunterbury they wende,The hooly blisful martir for to seke,That hem hath holpen whan that they were seeke.Translation of first 18 lines of the General Prologue, WikipediaWalt Whitman, When Lilacs Last in the Dooryard Bloom’d1When lilacs last in the dooryard bloom’d,And the great star early droop’d in the western sky in the night,I mourn’d, and yet shall mourn with ever-returning spring.Ever-returning spring, trinity sure to me you bring,Lilac blooming perennial and drooping star in the west,And thought of him I love.Autism AwarenessLivejournal postsApril 2026: Autism Awareness Month, April 2026April 2011: Autism Awareness Month and DiarmuidOct 2009: I come to praise the Fred S. Keller schoolSept 2009: Breakthrough!Aug 2009: Profile of the founder of D’s school, and a few detailsSTUMP postsMar 2014: Can Disney Films Teach Social Skills? - the sole post by my late husband StuJust as no two people are alike, the son in the article, Owen, and our son, D., are different in their disabilities. D. had no language loss — because he didn’t have language skills to lose. He spoke rarely but always sang songs he loved. D. didn’t withdraw from the world and has always been loving, cuddly and interested in any adult who gives him attention. I can go on but let’s focus on a commonality between the two. They love videos.Apr 2025: Aunt Betsey & Mr. Dick — from David Copperfield [Dec 2019]Mar 2021: Cuomo Killing the Disabled and the Elderly: This Time It’s PersonalCancerThe National Cancer Institute’s latest official SEER statistics — based on the November 2025 data submission (covering diagnoses through 2023) and publicly released in April 2026 via SEER*Explorer — confirm what many in insurance and benefits have sensed: early-onset cancers among adults under 50 are accelerating, even as overall age-adjusted cancer rates remain relatively stable with only a modest recent uptick.Other AwarenessApril: Financial Literacy MonthApril 2026 Financial Literacy Month Resources at MyMoney.govResources at Council for Economic EducationDec 2024: An Actual Murderer Among the Recently Commuted by Biden (a murderer involved with life insurance fraud)May 2022: Podcast episode — Don’t sell insurance to the MafiaMay 2022: Podcast episode - Fraudulent Life InsurersJun 2024: Podcast episode — Fraud and Embezzlement! How to Prevent and DetectDec 2024: Revisiting Fraud & Embezzlement Episode: Rita Crundwell and Biden CommutationMay 2022: Podcast episode — Don’t perpetrate financial fraud in spreadsheetsNov 2022: Podcast episode — FTX, Dickens, and Business FraudSTUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Get full access to STUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more at marypatcampbell.substack.com/subscribe

March is Problem Gambling Awareness Month (were you aware?) — and many people are becoming aware of an increasing problem with all sorts of gambling and betting being available 24/7, in easy reach, on our phones. People wrestling with gambling debts and gambling addiction are not a new phenomenon, as these have featured as major items in literature (which I mention)… and unfortunately, too many politicians have pointed to people’s attraction to gambling via lotteries in supposedly helping to fund governmental functions.Episode LinksNational Council on Problem GamblingFAQs: What is Problem Gambling?What is problem gambling?Problem gambling (sometimes referred to as “gambling addiction” or “gambling disorder”) is gambling behavior that is damaging to a person or their family, often disrupting their daily life and career. Anyone who gambles can be at-risk for developing a gambling problem. Gambling disorder is a recognized mental health diagnosis.Some warning signs of a gambling problem are:* Thinking about gambling all the time.* Feeling the need to bet more money and more often.* Going back to try to win your money back (“chasing losses”).* Feeling restless or irritable when trying to stop or cut down.* Feeling like you can’t control yourself.* Gambling despite negative consequences.* In extreme cases, problem gambling can cause bankruptcy, legal problems, losing your job or your family, and thinking about suicide.For more information on the American Psychiatric Association’s criteria for gambling addiction, visit DSM 5 at www.psych.org.Problem Gambling Awareness Month (PGAM)Problem Gambling Awareness Month is a nationwide grassroots campaign, held annually in March, that seeks to increase public awareness of problem gambling and promote prevention, treatment, and recovery services.PGAM Goals* To increase public awareness of problem gambling and the availability of prevention, treatment and recovery services.* To encourage healthcare providers to screen clients for problem gambling.Literary GamblingThe Old Curiosity Shop by Dickens at Project GutenbergChapter 29 excerpt to Chapter 30:The child sat by, and watched its progress with a troubled mind. Regardless of the run of luck, and mindful only of the desperate passion which had its hold upon her grandfather, losses and gains were to her alike. Exulting in some brief triumph, or cast down by a defeat, there he sat so wild and restless, so feverishly and intensely anxious, so terribly eager, so ravenous for the paltry stakes, that she could have almost better borne to see him dead. And yet she was the innocent cause of all this torture, and he, gambling with such a savage thirst for gain as the most insatiable gambler never felt, had not one selfish thought!On the contrary, the other three—knaves and gamesters by their trade—while intent upon their game, were yet as cool and quiet as if every virtue had been centered in their breasts. Sometimes one would look up to smile to another, or to snuff the feeble candle, or to glance at the lightning as it shot through the open window and fluttering curtain, or to listen to some louder peal of thunder than the rest, with a kind of momentary impatience, as if it put him out; but there they sat, with a calm indifference to everything but their cards, perfect philosophers in appearance, and with no greater show of passion or excitement than if they had been made of stone.The storm had raged for full three hours; the lightning had grown fainter and less frequent; the thunder, from seeming to roll and break above their heads, had gradually died away into a deep hoarse distance; and still the game went on, and still the anxious child was quite forgotten.CHAPTER 30At length the play came to an end, and Mr Isaac List rose the only winner. Mat and the landlord bore their losses with professional fortitude. Isaac pocketed his gains with the air of a man who had quite made up his mind to win, all along, and was neither surprised nor pleased.Nell’s little purse was exhausted; but although it lay empty by his side, and the other players had now risen from the table, the old man sat poring over the cards, dealing them as they had been dealt before, and turning up the different hands to see what each man would have held if they had still been playing. He was quite absorbed in this occupation, when the child drew near and laid her hand upon his shoulder, telling him it was near midnight.‘See the curse of poverty, Nell,’ he said, pointing to the packs he had spread out upon the table. ‘If I could have gone on a little longer, only a little longer, the luck would have turned on my side. Yes, it’s as plain as the marks upon the cards. See here—and there—and here again.’‘Put them away,’ urged the child. ‘Try to forget them.’‘Try to forget them!’ he rejoined, raising his haggard face to hers, and regarding her with an incredulous stare. ‘To forget them! How are we ever to grow rich if I forget them?’The child could only shake her head.‘No, no, Nell,’ said the old man, patting her cheek; ‘they must not be forgotten. We must make amends for this as soon as we can. Patience—patience, and we’ll right thee yet, I promise thee. Lose to-day, win to-morrow. And nothing can be won without anxiety and care—nothing. Come, I am ready.’‘Do you know what the time is?’ said Mr Groves, who was smoking with his friends. ‘Past twelve o’clock—’‘—And a rainy night,’ added the stout man.‘The Valiant Soldier, by James Groves. Good beds. Cheap entertainment for man and beast,’ said Mr Groves, quoting his sign-board. ‘Half-past twelve o’clock.’‘It’s very late,’ said the uneasy child. ‘I wish we had gone before. What will they think of us! It will be two o’clock by the time we get back. What would it cost, sir, if we stopped here?’‘Two good beds, one-and-sixpence; supper and beer one shilling; total two shillings and sixpence,’ replied the Valiant Soldier.Now, Nell had still the piece of gold sewn in her dress; and when she came to consider the lateness of the hour, and the somnolent habits of Mrs Jarley, and to imagine the state of consternation in which they would certainly throw that good lady by knocking her up in the middle of the night—and when she reflected, on the other hand, that if they remained where they were, and rose early in the morning, they might get back before she awoke, and could plead the violence of the storm by which they had been overtaken, as a good apology for their absence—she decided, after a great deal of hesitation, to remain. She therefore took her grandfather aside, and telling him that she had still enough left to defray the cost of their lodging, proposed that they should stay there for the night.‘If I had had but that money before—If I had only known of it a few minutes ago!’ muttered the old man.‘We will decide to stop here if you please,’ said Nell, turning hastily to the landlord.‘I think that’s prudent,’ returned Mr Groves. ‘You shall have your suppers directly.’Accordingly, when Mr Groves had smoked his pipe out, knocked out the ashes, and placed it carefully in a corner of the fire-place, with the bowl downwards, he brought in the bread and cheese, and beer, with many high encomiums upon their excellence, and bade his guests fall to, and make themselves at home. Nell and her grandfather ate sparingly, for both were occupied with their own reflections; the other gentlemen, for whose constitutions beer was too weak and tame a liquid, consoled themselves with spirits and tobacco.As they would leave the house very early in the morning, the child was anxious to pay for their entertainment before they retired to bed. But as she felt the necessity of concealing her little hoard from her grandfather, and had to change the piece of gold, she took it secretly from its place of concealment, and embraced an opportunity of following the landlord when he went out of the room, and tendered it to h… Get full access to STUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more at marypatcampbell.substack.com/subscribe

Paul Ehrlich died recently at the age of 93, best known as a Malthusian in a modern age of growth and then population decline…with no famines, except man-made ones. His best-known book was The Population Bomb, published in 1968, which was already wrong when it was published. It’s fine to attack the man’s ideas, as they were just plain wrong, he was told this when alive, and he had never admitted this. While not the only person with his ideas, he contributed to the suicide of expertise, by claiming authority in the face of his own falsity.Episode LinksMedia ObituariesNYT, 15 Mar 2026: Paul R. Ehrlich, Who Alarmed the World With ‘The Population Bomb,’ Dies at 93His best-selling 1968 book, which forecast global famines, made him a leader of the environmental movement. But he faced criticism when his predictions proved premature.Paul R. Ehrlich, an eminent ecologist and population scientist whose best-selling book, ‘’The Population Bomb,’‘ was celebrated as a prescient warning of a coming age of food shortages and famine but later criticized by conservatives and academic rivals for what they called its sky-is-falling rhetoric, died on Friday in Palo Alto, Calif. He was 93.His death, at a nursing facility in the retirement community where he lived, was caused by complications of cancer, his daughter, Lisa Marie Daniel, said.As a young professor of biology at Stanford University in the mid-1960s, Dr. Ehrlich was known for his absorbing lectures on evolution, in which he described what plants and animals faced on a planet stressed by industrial pollution and rapid population growth. He distilled those lectures into an article published in December 1967 in New Scientist magazine.Six months later, encouraged by David Brower, the executive director of the environmental group the Sierra Club, to write a book on the subject, Dr. Ehrlich published ‘’The Population Bomb.’‘ In 233 pages, he asserted that the planet’s condition began to deteriorate rapidly in the 1950s, when the rate of population growth exceeded the increase in food production -- or, as he put it, when ‘’the stork passed the plow.’‘ He called on couples to limit their families to one or two children.Witty, knowledgeable and not at all reticent, Dr. Ehrlich gained a huge audience on television, especially on ‘’The Tonight Show Starring Johnny Carson,’‘ which he appeared on roughly 20 times. His forecast of food riots in the United States and of imminent global famines caused by escalating population growth found a worldwide readership.One of the best-selling nonfiction books about the environment to date, ‘’The Population Bomb’‘ sold three million copies and transformed Dr. Ehrlich, who was 37 at the time, into one of the global environmental movement’s most recognized leaders. His influence motivated international governments to convene conferences on controlling population, and his message was heard in private homes across the industrialized world as couples conceived fewer children.Dr. Ehrlich expanded on his thesis in ‘’The End of Affluence’‘ (1974), which he wrote with his wife, Anne H. Ehrlich, who wrote or edited 15 books with him. The book forecast a ‘’nutritional disaster’‘ in the 1970s, predicting that ‘’before 1985, mankind will enter a genuine age of scarcity.’‘Such bold predictions, some of which turned out to be premature or in error, prompted rivals in business and academia to question the validity of his claims. In 1980, Julian Simon, an economist at the University of Maryland, challenged Dr. Ehrlich and two of his colleagues with what Stewart Brand, a founder of the Whole Earth Catalog, called ‘’one of the great revelatory bets.’‘Convinced that the growing population would make natural resources ever more scarce and thus drive up costs, Dr. Ehrlich accepted Mr. Simon’s challenge, betting that the prices of five key metals would rise in the 1980s. Mr. Simon believed that innovation would drive prices down.In 1990, Dr. Ehrlich and his colleagues conceded defeat and sent Mr. Simon a check for $576.07 -- an amount that represented the decline in the metals’ prices after accounting for inflation.WSJ, editorial, 17 Mar 2026: Paul Ehrlich, the Man Who Lost an Infamous BetThe Stanford biologist Paul Ehrlich, who died Friday at age 93, made his most important contribution to the world by losing a bet. It helped educate millions that his ideas about scarcity and human ingenuity were wrong.Readers of a certain age will recall that Ehrlich was one of the most celebrated public intellectuals of his time. His 1968 book, “The Population Bomb,” made him famous in an era of economic and political turmoil that led to public pessimism.The book’s opening lines capture his zero-sum Malthusian thinking: “The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death.” The idea that people having babies was impoverishing nations became an article of faith on the political left and most of the press. Untold horrors were committed by governments against their own citizens in the name of population control—most notably, China’s one-child policy.The great economist Julian Simon decided to put Ehrlich’s theories to the test. In 1980 he offered to bet on whether the price of five commodities would go down or up over the next 10 years. Ehrlich chose the five metals—chromium, copper, nickel, tin and tungsten—and took the bet.It was really a wager over human beings and free markets. If Ehrlich was right, and people were devouring the Earth’s resources, then the price of those resources would go up. If Simon was right, human beings would respond to shortages with ingenuity, and prices would, in the long term, go down. In 1990 Simon won the bet and Ehrlich paid up.First Things, Scott Yenor, 19 Mar 2026: Paul Ehrlich, False ProphetPaul Ehrlich, noted author of The Population Bomb, died last week. Few people have been so consequentially wrong as Ehrlich. Ironically, his name, translated from the German, means “honest, truthful, sincere.” It is remarkable how this PhD in butterflies and Stanford professor rose to such prominence, capitalizing on a wave of popular pessimism to attack civilization from the left.Ehrlich’s Population Bomb begins with an arresting line: “The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s and 1980s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. At this late date nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate . . .” Indeed, in the late 1960s, American society seemed to be coming apart. The threat of nuclear war loomed. Mass migration wore away borders. Disease spread. Ehrlich’s Population Bomb more caught the wave of alarmism than created it. The Rockefeller and Ford Foundations were already promoting population control across the world, especially in India and East Asia, in the early 1960s.Many ears heard Ehrlich’s prophecies. He appeared more than twenty times on Johnny Carson’s Tonight Show. During his 1980 appearance, Ehrlich praised Eastern European countries for reaching Zero Population Growth. Imitators arose too, most notably the Club of Rome’s Limits to Growth, a book published in 1972. Limits, a cultural marker of sorts, saw several MIT professors use computer models to prove that coming population explosion would lead to resource depletion and declines in agricultural and industrial output. The only bright spot would be the rebirth of humanity after its impending collapse.….Skeptics always dogged Ehrlich. Most famous was his bet with Julian Simon, the free-market economist and techno-enthusiast. I read Simon’s The Ultimate Resource as a young man. Like others at the time, he was more worried about the world’s impending labor shortage. Fewer laborers would mean less creativity. With more people, Simon thought, human ingenuity would flourish. There woul… Get full access to STUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more at marypatcampbell.substack.com/subscribe

I used someone else’s podcast on “resounding gongs or clashing cymbals” as a jumping-off point of where one should be focusing one’s efforts in the world… with a shift into some Lenten themes. Yes, there’s a heavy Christian flavor to this one, but it’s also a sneaky way for me to encourage you to consume Dickens in the form of excellent miniseries production (yes, really). And a finish up with saying if we must have Daylight Saving Time, why not use that “extra” hour of daylight in the evening to build community? Nudge nudge.Episode LinksPillar PodcastBonus episode for paying subscribers: Resounding gongs or clashing cymbalsMrs. JellybyQuoting from the 2025 post:Mrs. Jellyby is one of a network of charitable do-gooders, under the heading of Christian missionary work bother one of the main characters, Mr. Jarndyce. She and the others were a thinly veiled critique of various members of the charitable societies who had bothered Dickens once he was rich and famous.Mrs. Jellyby focused on an African tribe, and her mission is described thusly, from Chapter 4, “Telescopic Philanthropy”:We were to pass the night, Mr. Kenge told us when we arrived in his room, at Mrs. Jellyby’s; and then he turned to me and said he took it for granted I knew who Mrs. Jellyby was.“I really don’t, sir,” I returned. “Perhaps Mr. Carstone—or Miss Clare—”But no, they knew nothing whatever about Mrs. Jellyby. “In-deed! Mrs. Jellyby,” said Mr. Kenge, standing with his back to the fire and casting his eyes over the dusty hearth-rug as if it were Mrs. Jellyby’s biography, “is a lady of very remarkable strength of character who devotes herself entirely to the public. She has devoted herself to an extensive variety of public subjects at various times and is at present (until something else attracts her) devoted to the subject of Africa, with a view to the general cultivation of the coffee berry—AND the natives—and the happy settlement, on the banks of the African rivers, of our superabundant home population. Mr. Jarndyce, who is desirous to aid any work that is considered likely to be a good work and who is much sought after by philanthropists, has, I believe, a very high opinion of Mrs. Jellyby.”Note, the concept was they would take some of the “superabundant home population” — aka that “excess population” Scrooge notes in “A Christmas Carol” — ship them over to Africa, and then have those poor people work in African missions.….That is, she wants to ship off 50 — 200 poor families from England to Africa, supposedly to make their living by growing coffee (and Mrs. Jellyby herself consumes a great deal of coffee to power her letter-writing campaigns). They are also supposed to evangelize the people already living there to Christianity.Other “charitable” people appear, whether they are involved in the Africa scheme or not. Similarly, they abuse the responsibilities they have to their families and neighbors to supposedly do good to a larger sphere. In general, they engender resentment in their children and sometimes despair in their spouses (though, in some cases, the spouses are on board and completely smug about it all.)….The African king wanted to sell all the missionaries (all who survived the tropical diseases) into slavery for his personal benefit. After Mrs. Jellyby sighs, she moves on to women’s suffrage as her next cause, which wouldn’t be successful in the UK until well after her death. In the meantime, she has a disabled granddaughter she could have done much to help… but no, she has decided that it’s better to keep on writing letters.….But that is not nearly as grand as the “telescopic philanthropy” that is completely futile, as Mrs. Jellyby does not understand anything whatsoever about the people in Africa, what they want or need.Mrs. Jellyby could have been more effective by helping both her family and the poor who surrounded her in London, where she lived. What Esther Summerson was able to accomplish among different people directly contrasts with the futility of Mrs. Jellyby’s pile of messy letters.If Mrs. Jellyby had ordered her responsibilities properly, by her capabilities and knowledge, she could have done so much more good.Dickens AdaptationsBleak House2005 miniseries, Gillian Anderson as Lady Dedlock, Charles Dance as Mr. TulkinghornIMDB listing: Bleak HouseAmazon listing: Bleak HouseMartin Chuzzlewit1994 miniseries, Tom Wilkinson as Pecksniff, Pete Postlethwaite as Tigg Montague/Montague Tigg, Paul Scofield as old MartinIMDB listing: Martin ChuzzlewitAmazon listing: Martin ChuzzlewitUSCCB: Works of MercyCorporal Works of Mercy* Feed the hungry* Give drink to the thirsty* Shelter the homeless* Visit the sick* Visit prisoners and ransom the hostage* Bury the dead* Give alms to the poorSpiritual Works of Mercy* Instructing the ignorant* Counseling the doubtful* Admonishing the sinner* Comforting the sorrowful* Forgiving injuries* Bearing wrongs patiently* Praying for the living and the deadDST PostSTUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Get full access to STUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more at marypatcampbell.substack.com/subscribe

Two different pieces — one from the left, one from the right — showing that wishful thinking will not get the Democratic and Republican parties in the United States through the public finance difficulties brought about by demographic realities. No, I’m not talking about immigration (legal or illegal… which also won’t fix the problem.) By all means, tinker around the edges for now. Because hard choices are coming, whether people like it or not.Episode LinksNY Times op-ed, 23 Feb 2026, Nicholas Bagley and Robert Gordon: Mamdani Will Need to Change How He GovernsMayor Zohran Mamdani of New York, in his inaugural address, offered a pledge to create a government “where excellence is no longer the exception.” He now must do so while closing a $5.4 billion deficit, in a state where the governor rejects higher taxes on the rich.Big budget gaps are not uncommon in American cities. Nor is New York’s high cost of living — one reason that California, New York and Illinois top the list of states with declining populations over the past five years.If blue-state governors and mayors want to get serious about delivering excellent public services, they will need to do more than battle billionaire elites or embrace abundant housing and energy.They will have to push back against a core constituency within the Democratic Party that often makes government deliver less and cost more: unions representing teachers, police officers and transit workers.Bloomberg, Matt Levine, Money Matters, 26 Feb 2026: The DOGE Doubt TradeThis product exists. It is conventionally called a “bar bet.” You can walk into a bar in the right part of Texas, say “I’ll bet anyone $1,000 that Elon Musk won’t do the thing he said he’d do on the timeline he promised,” and someone will stand up and say “them’s fightin’ words” and take your bet. And you will negotiate the terms and odds and resolution method, and in six months you’ll check back in and he won’t have done the thing and you’ll make $1,000. And you will get to say to the Musk fan on the other side of the bet, “nyah nyah nyah nyah nyah,” which is what you really wanted.Of course there is a market structure problem, which is that you have to find the right bar and then laboriously negotiate the terms of the bet, so you can’t actually pour your life savings into Being Skeptical About Elon Musk’s Promises. Or you couldn’t until recently. But now we have prediction markets, which are centralized electronic exchanges, regulated by the US Commodities Futures Trading Commission, for coordinating bar bets. Here’s a Wall Street Journal story about a guy who can justifiably say “nyah nyah nyah nyah nyah”:Alan Cole put his life savings, all $342,195.63, into a prediction-market wager. … Until Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency came roaring into the nation’s capital last year, he was largely a plain-vanilla investor or, as he puts it, a “normal, conventional Wall Street Journal-reading adult.”But Musk’s boasts and his eager fans brought an unusual opportunity into the burgeoning U.S. prediction markets: People willing to bet that the world’s richest man would transform and shrink the federal government.Cole took the opposite position, one he didn’t see as a gamble at all. If federal spending in each quarter of 2025 exceeded federal spending in the fourth quarter of 2024, he would win big. …From Cole’s perspective, even if Musk cut government contracts and shrank the federal workforce—which he did—he couldn’t meaningfully dent Social Security and Medicare benefits. And that left no plausible path for cutting overall federal spending. ...The key feature of the prediction market offered on the Kalshi website was that it measured federal spending in annualized, seasonally adjusted nominal dollars. To win, Cole didn’t need spending to stay above a past projection. He just needed federal spending to go up, as it almost always does.He made like $128,000, or 37%. Notice the features of this product:* If you have a view like “federal spending will go up,” it is immediately obvious whether and to what extent the market incorporates that view: The market price just is the market’s expected probability of that happening.* This product reflects only one fact, whether federal spending goes up or not.* Investor psychology will affect the price at which you get into the trade — if Musk’s “eager fans” think he will cut federal spending, then you will pay a relatively low price for the spending-will-go-up contract — but not the price at which you exit, because the trade resolves: Eventually, spending either goes up or it doesn’t, there’s some resolution mechanism to establish the fact, and if it went up you get paid. Tom Gara wrote on Threads: “He knew that it’s basically mathematically impossible to reduce federal spending, but he also knew Elon fanboys are often morons.” With Tesla stock, that is a problem; with prediction markets, it’s an opportunity.It is the opposite of a stock investment.I guess the point I would make here is that this is still somewhat childish. The stock market exists to allocate capital to productive businesses, and those businesses are irreducibly messy. You do not decide how to allocate capital by understanding one isolated fact about a company’s business; you have to figure out which facts are important and then do your best to understand all of them. Financial markets are not bets on individual facts; they are bets on the economic consequences of those facts.Prediction markets are a “truth machine”; they let you isolate a fact and make money by being right about it. In many ways this makes them less useful: They don’t fund economic growth, and they are imperfect hedges to real economic risks. But sometimes they do give you the satisfaction of being right.WSJ, 25 Feb 2026: The Tax Nerd Who Bet His Life Savings Against DOGEWASHINGTON -- Alan Cole put his life savings, all $342,195.63, into a prediction-market wager. He insists he’s not really a betting man.Cole is a 37-year-old tax economist with Ivy League degrees, a mortgage and a young child. Until Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency came roaring into the nation’s capital last year, he was largely a plain-vanilla investor or, as he puts it, a “normal, conventional Wall Street Journal-reading adult.”But Musk’s boasts and his eager fans brought an unusual opportunity into the burgeoning U.S. prediction markets: People willing to bet that the world’s richest man would transform and shrink the federal government.Cole took the opposite position, one he didn’t see as a gamble at all. If federal spending in each quarter of 2025 exceeded federal spending in the fourth quarter of 2024, he would win big.….From Cole’s perspective, even if Musk cut government contracts and shrank the federal workforce -- which he did -- he couldn’t meaningfully dent Social Security and Medicare benefits. And that left no plausible path for cutting overall federal spending.“It’s almost like the government has, you know, 19 elderly employees for every actual employee,” Cole said.The key feature of the prediction market offered on the Kalshi website was that it measured federal spending in annualized, seasonally adjusted nominal dollars. To win, Cole didn’t need spending to stay above a past projection. He just needed federal spending to go up, as it almost always does.This was far different, he decided, than other prediction-market options. Some of those are equivalent to betting in the already efficient sports-gambling market. Others are susceptible to competition against people with insider knowledge, like gambles on whether Lady Gaga will appear during the Super Bowl halftime show.Cole gradually amassed more than 3% of one particular $12 million federal-spending prediction market. He spread risk across several sub-bets, structured so he landed in the red only if spending declined by more than $50 billion. He wasn’t betting against Kalshi itself, just against people betting on Musk.….The government … Get full access to STUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more at marypatcampbell.substack.com/subscribe

Getting back into podcasting by looking at the recent wealth tax proposals in California and the Netherlands. The Box 3 “reforms” have already passed in The Netherlands and to go into effect in 2028, and in California, the wealth tax is likely to be a ballot proposal to be put in front of voters this fall in 2026, but backdated to January 2026. I look at the proposals at a high-level, some initial responses, and what the actual goals of these taxes are.Episode NotesNetherlands Investment Tax: “Box 3”NL Times, 13 Feb 2026: Dutch parliament greenlights new Box 3 tax, set to take effect in 2028Despite considerable resistance, a large majority in the lower house of the Dutch parliament approved a new system for taxing the returns on assets, also known as the Box 3 tax. The new system, which taxes returns based on the actual increase in the value of assets, is set to take effect in 2028.The Dutch government had to change the Box 3 tax after multiple courts ruled that the current system is unlawful. The current system taxes assets based on fictive gains - how much the Tax Authority assumes assets have increased in value over the taxable period, based on past returns. The Tax Authority also calculated the tax based on an assumed distribution of assets across savings and other investments, called the “asset mix.”….The Tweede Kamer greenlighting the Box 3 reform is not the end of the issue. A majority asked the new Cabinet to, once the new system is implemented, change the way in which returns on things like stocks, bonds, and cryptocurrencies are taxed.The new system taxes the unrealized gains on these assets - the profits of investments that have increased in value, but haven’t been cashed out yet. Parliamentarians don’t like that this will result in people paying tax on money they don’t have yet. A majority, therefore, asked the government to come up with a way in which investors only pay tax on realized returns - money in their pocket once they sell the asset involved. They want the government to present that plan by Budget Day 2028 at the latest.The Box 3 reform is costing the government billions. Not only does it have to refund overpaid capital gains taxes, but affected taxpayers may also be entitled to interest on those repayments. The Ministry of Finance has not yet formally decided whether the interest—known as belastingrente in Dutch—will be paid.NTL Trust International, accessed 17 Feb 2026: Netherlands Box 3 Reform: Structural Shifts and the 36% TaxLiquidation ContagionBalaji Initial Post15 Feb 2026, X/Twitter: Text:LIQUIDATION CONTAGIONWealth taxes are even worse than you think. Any asset held by Californian billionaires or Dutch citizens is now at risk of experiencing forced liquidation pressure.So: it’s not just that you don’t want to hold assets as a Dutchman. You also don’t want a Dutchman to hold your assets. Because the logic of forced liquidation is contagion.Let’s think it through.(1) First, suppose there is an asset with a total market cap of $10,000, with 10 shares total, of which 1 share each is held by 10 different holders, all in the Netherlands. To simplify the math, assume the Dutch holders bought those shares at par, or close to $0.(2) Now suppose today is the unrealized cap gains tax day, and the share price is $1,000 per share. Each Dutch guy is hit with a 36% tax, and owes $360. The first guy sells his one share, gets $1,000, and pays $360 in tax while retaining $640.(3) But the first guy’s sale reduces the market price to $960 per share. So when the second guy sells, he only retains $600 after paying $360 in tax.(4) Now assume that by the 7th guy, all the selling has pushed the share price to collapse to $200 per share. This is a very reasonable scenario if 60% of the cap table has suddenly been dumped. Indeed it might go much lower.(5) At $200 per share, the 7th guy actually has to go into debt to pay the tax as he owes $360. He sells his one share, pays all $200 of the proceeds in tax. And still owes $160 more in tax.(6) The 8th, 9th, and 10th guys are even more screwed. By the time they sell, the price will likely have crashed to $100 per share or less. As with the 7th guy, even 100% liquidation will not cover their tax burden.(7) So we immediately see many negative things about the Dutch unrealized cap gains tax bill.(a) First, it will cause large simultaneous forced liquidations. Everyone must sell 36% of their stake near the same time.(b) Second, it may be literally impossible to pay if a critical mass of the cap table is all subject to it at the same time. In the example above it was 100% Dutch holders, but has it been just 60% the result would have been much the same: a collapse in the share price.(c) Third, that means it would be disastrous to have too many Dutch citizens (or Californian billionaires!) on the cap table. Their forced sales will crash your share price.(d) So, you might have to start mass blocking those resident in wealth-taxing jurisdictions from investing in your companies.(e) This in turn makes the poor Western European guy even poorer, as he gets locked out of high growth assets.To be clear: I really do feel bad for the formerly Flying Dutchmen, now Crying Dutchmen. They invented much of modern capitalism. They founded New Amsterdam, now New York. They’ve punched way above their weight. I wish them only the best.Nevertheless…they should prepare for the worst. This may be a tough century for Western Europe. The first ones out might get to freedom, while the slowest may be stuck behind a new Iron Curtain, spending a century paying off the debts their states incurred over the last century.Because the long run fruits of Western Keynesianism are the same as Soviet Communism, in the sense of wealth seizure and pauperization.I mean, if you knew the future, you wouldn’t want to co-own a farm with a Russian in 1916. For similar reasons, you might not want to co-own a share of stock with Dutch national in 2026. Or with anyone in a seizure-curious jurisdiction…which unfortunately includes much of Western Europe, Canada, and Blue America.You instead want assets that are not held by those subject to forced liquidations. Now, I grant that this is an unusual way to rank assets…Dutch holders considered harmful?!? Yet it might sadly be necessary to minimize your exposure to liquidation contagion.PS: guess which crucial stock is most held by the Dutch? ASML. So: this unrealized cap gains tax may not literally be a communist plot, but it would have the same effect.In the replies:Doesn’t tell you, of course, how one has to keep track of the investments one holds via ETFs/mutual funds via companies such as BlackRock. BlackRock, etc., “owns” these assets on behalf of OTHER people. “But it’s for a pension fund!”Which, again, is for OTHER people… but I assume pension funds are out of scope for this tax….. [maybe I shouldn’t assume… all governments are hungry for tax revenue]Cross-contamination of systems15 Feb 2026, Reddit: Box 3 in 2028: taxed on unrealized gains in NL and realized gains by US | how do people deal with this?Not copying the text — but keeping on with the having to liquidate assets theme to pay a wealth tax on UNREALIZED gains, but when liquidating, one REALIZES the gains…. which triggers REALIZED GAINS TAXES in other tax jurisdictions.WHUPSCalifornia Wealth TaxNYPost, 8 Jan 2026: Wealth tax threat prompts at least six billionaires to cut ties with California, as about 20 more mull exit: reportThe threat of a steep new wealth tax in California has reportedly prompted at least six billionaires including Larry Page and Peter Thiel to cut their ties with the state — and as many as 20 others could be heading for the exits.The half-dozen billionaires made their moves before New Year’s Da… Get full access to STUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more at marypatcampbell.substack.com/subscribe

Just some talk on why I fundraise for Movember, which I’ve been doing since 2017. I look at some of the programs funded by Movember. The need continues.Episode LinksHere are the places you can donate to the Movember Foundation, which supports men’s health, specifically focusing on prostate cancer, testicular cancer, and men’s mental health:* Mary Pat Campbell’s MoSpace – a place to donate at Movember itself* My Movember Facebook fundraiser – my officially linked fundraiser, if this works better for youAnd here’s a QR code if that works better for you:While prostate cancer was my initial impetus for supporting Movember, I support all of Movember’s causes, which include men’s mental health and suicide prevention.Some Movember-funded projectsIronman Registry - USAIRONMAN is an international, population-based registry of 5,000 men with advanced prostate cancer across ten countries. It seeks to understand clinical outcomes associated with management of advanced prostate cancer and understand the biological and clinical diversity of the disease.USA - Mass market, multi-platform public media documentary series & campaignThis project uses a mass market, multi dimensional campaigns to shift populations understanding, attitudes and intentions and ultimately improve health outcomes on a large scale. Focusing on Youth Mental Health we will be working in partnership with PBS to deliver a documentary series supported with educational, digital and in person elements delivered across the USA.Veterans and First Responders - United StatesTo improve the mental health/wellbeing and prevent suicide of first responders and veterans in Australia, Canada, Germany, Ireland, United Kingdom, United States and New Zealand. This will be achieved through funding research proposals aimed at building the case to develop and implement effective prevention programs and/or test new evidence-based programs.STUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Get full access to STUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more at marypatcampbell.substack.com/subscribe