Risk and Return with Charlie Gasparino and Bob Sloan

S3 founder & managing partner Bob Sloan and Charlie Gasparino of Fox Business and the New York Post cover the headlines and data moving markets.This week: what the Democratic sweep in the midterms means for markets. Charlie shares what his Wall Street sources saw coming, why they expect both parties to keep moving to the extremes, and why AI could be the one issue where Republicans and Democrats agree, possibly the catalyst that pops the AI bubble. Bob explains why the market rallied 1,000 points: if AI spending slows, so does the pressure on interest rates. Plus why tariffs hit the working class hardest, and how campaign messaging decided the election.Then the data. Short sellers held their bets against aerospace and defense going into the vote, with short interest at a one-year high above 8% of float. They didn't cover in the late-October bounce, and defense is falling as Microsoft and Amazon rally. The neoclouds are down 38% since August, the worst of any AI buildout group, and Bob compares their debt-funded model to Japan's cross-shareholding web before its crash. Shorts and active managers are both adding, and Bob explains Apollo CEO Marc Rowan's line on the trade: either the 17% yield is right or the equity valuation is, but not both. CoreWeave reports next week with shorts up 34% since August 31, and five of its six reports have been followed by a drop. And at Core Scientific, CoreWeave's landlord, active managers have cut their stake ahead of their earnings Thursday. Plus Charlie on what the election means for Ukraine, possible cabinet changes, and why the White House is calling him about his criticism of tariffs.Chapters:(0:00) Intro(1:26) Wall Street saw the midterm sweep coming(5:18) Investigations ahead: crypto, Trump's businesses and AI(6:50) Cabinet changes and pushback on tariffs(7:58) What the election means for Ukraine(11:36) Texas, demographics and the night's biggest surprise(14:12) Tariffs as a tax on the working class(15:31) The brand of "free" and the Iran message(23:31) Why the market rallied 1,000 points(25:19) Campaign messaging in the social media era(38:25) Shorts held their defense bets into the midterms(39:32) Neoclouds lead the AI buildout selloff(41:29) Bob's Japan parallel for the AI buildout(43:29) Shorts vs. longs and Marc Rowan's "17% or $40 billion"(44:55) CoreWeave earnings preview(47:08) Core Scientific: longs thin out as shorts returnHosted by Bob Sloan, founder & managing partner of S3 Partners, and Charlie Gasparino of Fox Business and the New York Post.Visit: https://www.S3Partners.comFollow:Bob Sloan: https://x.com/BobSloanS3Charlie Gasparino: https://x.com/CGasparinoS3 Partners: https://x.com/S3PartnersNothing in this episode should be considered investment advice.

S3 founder & managing partner Bob Sloan and Charlie Gasparino of Fox Business and the New York Post cover the headlines and data moving markets.This week: how an AI "apocalypse" would actually play out in the markets. Charlie lays out why a correction is more likely to roll through segments than hit all at once, starting with the neoclouds that borrowed to buy chips, and Bob explains why the debt markets have caught up with that model. Plus Anthropic's S-1, why Charlie's sources say OpenAI follows with an IPO in the first quarter, and why big liquid names like Amazon and Intel are getting sold to make room in portfolios for the biggest IPOs in history.Then the data. Bob walks through the hedge fund sector map, where Tech and Health Care are being trimmed and Consumer Discretionary has the biggest short increase and biggest hedge fund long decline of any sector, a bet against the consumer. The biotech specialist trade that was up 45% by August got crowded and gave most of it back, and short sellers flagged the losers in June before the September unwind. The AI buildout trade is mostly red since August, with shorts now building against the companies that house, train and equip the data center workforce: Civeo, Target Hospitality, Boot Barn, Snap-on and Universal Technical Institute. And with the MLB season over, Bob reads the short interest in Atlanta Braves Holdings (BATRK) as a leading indicator on the lockout.Plus Charlie on the bipartisan college sports reform bill heading to the lame duck House, a midterms preview, and the 1986 Mets.Chapters:(0:00) Intro(1:16) How the AI apocalypse plays out by segment(3:36) Anthropic's S-1 and OpenAI's Q1 IPO(6:28) Selling Amazon and Intel to make room for the IPOs(10:24) Midterms: Fetterman as the fulcrum, Texas and Michigan(13:19) College sports reform in the lame duck session(26:15) Hedge fund sector map: trimming Tech and Health Care, shorting the consumer(29:20) The biotech specialist trade worked, then gave it back(31:50) Short sellers called the biotech losers(32:52) The AI buildout trade mostly red since August(35:31) Shorts are betting against the AI worker(36:26) The MLB season is over, the Braves trade isn't(41:16) The 1986 MetsHosted by Bob Sloan, founder & managing partner of S3 Partners, and Charlie Gasparino of Fox Business and the New York Post.Visit: https://www.S3Partners.comFollow:Bob Sloan: https://x.com/BobSloanS3Charlie Gasparino: https://x.com/CGasparinoS3 Partners: https://x.com/S3PartnersNothing in this episode should be considered investment advice.

S3 founder & managing partner Bob Sloan and Charlie Gasparino of Fox Business and the New York Post cover the headlines and data moving markets.This week: the CoreWeave panic, and who was actually selling. Bob walks through why the stock fell through the floor with passive money holding half of it, why the sellers were insiders and retail rather than institutions, and why technology specialist hedge funds leaving while generalists pile in is the bearish tell even as active longs keep buying. Plus why CoreWeave is still the least shorted of the neoclouds next to Nebius and IREN, why France has become one of the best short trades on the board with CAC 40 short interest up 10% since August and Renault’s S3 Active Long-to-Short ratio collapsing, as imports weigh on the French automaker.Plus Charlie on Meta’s new share class, which he reported on weeks ago, and why the short interest building since August pointed to a secondary ahead of the Anthropic IPO, what the S-1 has to say about price compression from open source models, why nobody can define what winning in AI actually means, and why beer stocks keep getting shorted as everyone wakes up to what alcohol does to sleep.Chapters:0:00 Intro0:25 Meta’s new share class and the secondary the shorts saw coming6:05 Anthropic’s S-1 and the open source price war8:19 What does winning in AI actually mean14:27 Workflow is a drug: why the cheapest model doesn’t win18:25 Meta earnings and smart money buying CoreWeave converts26:34 Beer stocks: Molson Coors, Boston Beer and dry Bob35:29 CAC 40 shorts, Chinese cars and Renault at one to one37:37 CoreWeave coverage lookback40:41 CoreWeave: passive owns half, insiders and retail sold43:14 Generalists in, specialists out45:24 CoreWeave is the least shorted neocloud46:44 Next week’s agenda and Charlie’s bubble column51:32 SpaceX, Tesla and the calls this show got right53:27 Midterms: Texas, Michigan and the tariff problem56:36 WrapHosted by Bob Sloan, founder & managing partner of S3 Partners, and Charlie Gasparino of Fox Business and the New York Post.Visit:www.S3Partners.comFollow:Bob Sloan: https://x.com/BobSloanS3Charlie Gasparino: https://x.com/CGasparinoS3 Partners: https://x.com/S3PartnersNothing in this episode should be considered investment advice.

S3 Partners founder & managing partner Bob Sloan and Charlie Gasparino of Fox Business and the New York Post cover the headlines and data moving markets.This week: the hedge moved from rates to credit spreads. Bob walks through why short interest in the investment grade ETF keeps climbing now that a 5% world looks as hard on high quality borrowers as it is on high yield, why long duration Treasury shorts have flattened out while both credit ETFs get pressed, and why shorts are selling airline stocks as a proxy for the price of oil while active long managers quietly build the other side of that trade. Plus Charlie on the first Columbus Day celebration ever held at the New York Stock Exchange and the Italian American financiers it honored, what David Zaslav does next now that the Warner Brothers sale to Skydance is done and how many people at the company got rich alongside him, and why the short interest building in Meta points to a monster secondary landing ahead of an Anthropic IPO.Chapters:0:00 Intro1:42 Columbus Day at the New York Stock Exchange2:54 Dick Grasso and the exchange he built4:03 Vinnie Viola, from Williamsburg to Virtu5:10 Ken Langone, Home Depot and NYU Langone11:48 How many people the Warner Brothers sale made rich12:37 Meta, the AI spend and a secondary in the wings17:25 Credit ETFs, shorts move into investment grade19:42 The hedge rotates from rates to credit spreads21:15 Airlines shorted as a proxy for oil23:34 What makes a stock a battleground27:36 Shipping, beer and alt energy next week28:20 A Columbus Day detour through The Sopranos33:39 WrapHosted by Bob Sloan, founder & managing partner of S3 Partners, and Charlie Gasparino of Fox Business and the New York Post.Follow: Bob Sloan: https://x.com/BobSloanS3Charlie Gasparino: https://x.com/CGasparinoS3 Partners: https://x.com/S3PartnersNothing in this episode should be considered investment advice.

Bob Sloan and Charlie Gasparino of Fox Business and the New York Post cover the headlines and data moving markets.This week: short sellers are covering the hyperscalers and pressing everything else. Bob walks through why short interest in the Nasdaq 100 keeps falling as the index rises while the Russell 2000 gets shorted harder, why Oracle has turned into a battleground stock with shorts and active managers both adding, and how the AI buildout trade turned in June with ten of the twelve buildout groups now lower.Plus Charlie on Bessent's bond market intervention flopping as the ten year sits at 5.3%, prediction markets booming their way toward a Supreme Court fight with the state AGs, and why the attacks on David Zaslav's payday from the Skydance deal miss how much money that sale made for everyone else at Warner Bros.Chapters:0:00 Intro0:44 Bessent's bond market intervention and the bond vigilantes3:20 A 5.3% ten year and a generation that never saw rates rise7:04 Prediction markets boom, and the state AGs circling9:30 Warner Bros goes to Skydance, and Zaslav's billion12:04 The part of the payday nobody wants to talk about16:00 Bezos, Blue Origin and a crowded IPO calendar21:45 Nasdaq 100 vs Russell 2000, shorts cover the winners24:30 The wake behind the hyperscalers, and Oracle as a battleground26:16 Energy, oil and gas works while the supply chain gets shorted28:19 The AI buildout becomes a midterm issue30:40 Smart money sours on Republican odds33:20 Do the polls overstate Democrats?36:30 Senate math and a Speaker Jeffries problem38:55 What a House flip would do to the hyperscaler trade43:00 WrapHosted by Bob Sloan, founder & managing partner of S3 Partners, and Charlie Gasparino of Fox Business and the New York Post.Follow:Bob Sloan: https://x.com/BobSloanS3Charlie Gasparino: https://x.com/CGasparinoS3 Partners: https://x.com/S3PartnersNothing in this episode should be considered investment advice.

Bob Sloan and Charlie Gasparino of Fox Business and the New York Post cover the headlines and data moving markets.This week: the AI data center buildout becomes a midterm wedge issue, and S3 data shows short sellers moving in behind it. Bob walks through which buildout sectors made money this year and which ones shorts are now pressing, why hedge funds short life insurers and BDCs when they want to bet against private credit, and what rising short interest in Nike and McDonald's says about the consumer. Plus Charlie broke the story that Warner Bros. was about to name a co-CEO, andthe announcement landed while they were still taping.0:00 Intro1:53 Paramount Skydance, Warner Bros and the California AG backing down7:17 Warner Bros management shuffle, and a scoop confirmed on air9:00 AI data centers turn into a midterm wedge issue12:10 Where the buildout money went, sector by sector15:46 Q3 flips: shorts start winning17:09 The short trade on a House flip23:34 Trade school stocks round trip24:49 How hedge funds short private credit without a market27:16 Nike, McDonald's and the consumer short trade30:50 Deficit math and the case for bonds39:15 WrapHosted by Bob Sloan, founder & managing partner of S3 Partners, and Charlie Gasparino of Fox Business and the New York Post.Follow:Bob Sloan: https://x.com/BobSloanS3Charlie Gasparino: https://x.com/CGasparinoS3 Partners: https://x.com/S3PartnersNothing in this episode should be considered investment advice.

Bob Sloan and Charlie Gasparino of Fox Business and the New York Post cover the headlines and data moving markets.This week: the AI data center buildout becomes a midterm wedge issue, and S3 data shows short sellers moving in behind it. Bob walks through which buildout sectors made money this year and which ones shorts are now pressing, why hedge funds short life insurers and BDCs when they want to bet against private credit, and what rising short interest in Nike and McDonald's says about the consumer. Plus Charlie broke the story that Warner Bros. was about to name a co-CEO, andthe announcement landed while they were still taping.0:00 Intro1:53 Paramount Skydance, Warner Bros and the California AG backing down7:17 Warner Bros management shuffle, and a scoop confirmed on air9:00 AI data centers turn into a midterm wedge issue12:10 Where the buildout money went, sector by sector15:46 Q3 flips: shorts start winning17:09 The short trade on a House flip23:34 Trade school stocks round trip24:49 How hedge funds short private credit without a market27:16 Nike, McDonald's and the consumer short trade30:50 Deficit math and the case for bonds39:15 WrapHosted by Bob Sloan, founder & managing partner of S3 Partners, and Charlie Gasparino of Fox Business and the New York Post.Follow:Bob Sloan: https://x.com/BobSloanS3Charlie Gasparino: https://x.com/CGasparinoS3 Partners: https://x.com/S3PartnersNothing in this episode should be considered investment advice.

Former CIA acting director Jack Devine is back on Risk & Return, six months after he called the Iran conflict almost move for move. This week he tells Bob Sloan and Charlie Gasparino why there is still no deal on the table, why Tehran thinks it has the upper hand heading into the midterms, and what he would do about it. Then it's Ukraine and the drone math that changed the war, a ten-year outlook where the US and China hold the only real AI power, and the ethics question Jack says the tech industry keeps dodging.Bob brings the data: hedge funds are shorting the data center supply chain as the Ohio Senate race turns into a referendum on AI buildout, the shipping trade cracked after last week's crowded long call, and JPMorgan has stopped publishing a baseline oil forecast. Plus a 1985 meeting with Admiral Poindexter and the Cuban Missile Crisis from under a college desk.Chapters0:00 Welcome2:35 Iran: no deal, and why Tehran thinks it's winning4:39 1985: "There aren't any moderates"6:40 Should the US finish the job?16:33 Ukraine: drones changed the math23:18 The next ten years: US, China and AI27:26 How to play oil, and what AI can't tell you30:24 JPMorgan gives up on an oil baseline31:42 The Ohio Senate race and the data center trade36:18 Can you stop AI?48:00 A Section 230 for AI?50:39 Jack's closing thoughts53:38 Shipping: the crowded long unwinds54:10 Supercarriers and the Panama portsFor more information on the data featured in the episode visit S3Partners.comRisk & Return is hosted by Bob Sloan, founder of S3 Partners, and Charlie Gasparino of Fox Business and the New York Post. Guest: Jack Devine, president of The Arkin Group and former acting deputy director of operations at the CIA.Follow:Jack Devine: @JackDevine_TAGBob Sloan: https://x.com/BobSloanS3Charlie Gasparino: https://x.com/CGasparinoS3 Partners: https://x.com/S3PartnersNothing in this episode is investment advice.

Bob and Charlie discuss why the loudest voices in the AI debate are the ones with the weakest hand, Larry Ellison's reversal on his Oracle stock sale, the fight over the Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery deal, and the return of San Pietro, plus S3 positioning data on shipping, oil and the Treasury curve.Shipping active longs up 94% on the year to $23.2B while short interest sat at 13-month lows. Shorts only started rebuilding in August.USO clears the top of its range with short interest 40% below peak. The trade is about supply now, not the conflict.Shorts piled into the belly of the curve in UST ETF products since June 12 while the long and short end stayed flat.Hosted by Bob Sloan, founder & managing partner of S3 Partners, and Charlie Gasparino of Fox Business and the New York Post.Chapters00:00 Opening02:00 AI hysteria09:27 Home of the brave10:44 A very well coordinated press event14:46 Larry Ellison's Oracle stock sale17:49 Paramount, Warner Bros. Discovery and the state AGs21:31 San Pietro, Wall Street's cafeteria24:45 S3 data: shipping's one-way bet27:24 Oil: the trade is about supply now30:59 Treasury ETFs and the belly of the curve35:40 Iran, gas prices and the midterms41:21 WrapFollow:S3 Partners: https://x.com/S3PartnersBob Sloan: https://x.com/BobSloanS3Charlie Gasparino: https://x.com/CGasparinoNothing in this episode should be considered investment advice. The hosts are not investment advisors.

On the 25th anniversary of 9/11, Charlie Gasparino and Bob Sloan set the data and headlines aside to share their firsthand accounts of that day. From the trading floor to Ground Zero, they reflect on the first responders, the lives lost, and why that morning still matters.Regular Risk & Return episodes return Wednesday, September 16th at 4pm.