169. 2025 State of play in the battery universe - Feb25

2024 has been another exceptional year for the battery industry. We have invited Aaron Wade to discuss the various technological and economic aspects of this rapidly expanding universe. Aaron is a rising star in the battery world. Not only is a key member of the Volta Foundation, but he is also Business Development Lead at Gaussion, a U.K. start up that improves charging capacities in batteries.The Volta Foundation just released its monumental 516 pages report, covering industry, technology, research, government policy, standards. It is a must read for anybody in the industry.Link to the Volta Foundation report: https://volta.foundation/battery-report-2024With Aaron, we talk about the pivotal role of China, the evolution of the supply chain (do we have enough minerals? Spoiler Alert: Yes), the chemistries, the form factors, recycling and second life. We discuss industry consolidation among the leading suppliers. We dive into the rise of LFP, the divergence between EV and ESS industries, and the expected evolutions of technologies (sodium ion, solid state, semi solid state), Finally we debate about the prices of cells, packs and systems.A great conversation to assess the current state of play in this ultra dynamic sector.------------------------  Beside the Volta Foundation, the 2 must read reports which came out a few weeks agoEmber when it comes to Electricity European Electricity Review 2025Nat Bullard when it comes to Climate and Decarbonisationhttps://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/european-electricity-review-2025/https://www.nathanielbullard.com/presentationsAaron Wade is the Business Development Lead for Gaussion, enhancing battery performance through magneto-enhancement, and a project director for the Volta Foundation. He was previously the head of battery costs at CRU, helping clients understand the ever changing world of battery cost and technology. Aaron has a PhD from University College London, researching the degradation of battery chemistries using X-ray imaging.  Gaussion develop magnetic-enhancement components as a bolt-on for all batteries, unlocking faster charging and longer lifetimes. The solution is chemistry and form factor agnostic, and can result in up to 6x faster charging and up to 8x longer lifetimes.   

While Gerard Reid was at Davos, schmoozing with world leaders, Laurent Segalen was invited by Luca Pedretti on the Pexapark podcast. They had a conversation around where to invest in the Energy Transition. Laurent has designed a typology of possible investments from the least desirable to the essential. 1)      Aspirational2)      Shoehorn3)      Compliance4)      Profitable5)      SalvationLaurent describes his numerous investments and how this framework has helped him deliver consequential returns.

As the price of gas and LNG (Liquified Natural Gas) becomes a key factor for the value of the world’s energy, we have decided to bring in a top gas expert to explain where the market is and how is it going to evolve.Seb Kennedy is a leading market analyst and Founding Editor of Energy Flux (www.EnergyFlux.news), an independent newsletter that analyses global gas and LNG markets through the lens of Europe's energy transition.We review the numerous phases that the market has faced since the beginning of the decade, COVID, post COVID, Russia-Ukraine. We delve into the incredible expansion of US Exports capacity, with 8 terminals now operational and a forecasted growth of another 50% by the end of the decade.We analyse how the market is inherently volatile, which make long term investment difficult but still inside a band. If the LNG gets too high, then consumers will switch; if it gets too low, then some capacity will be shelved.  We focus on Qatar, the world’s lowest cost producer, which will continue to grow no matter what. Seb anticipates a surplus in the coming years with massive extra capacities coming on the market from USA and Qatar. But the role of Iran and Russia, which hold the largest reserves, remain a huge uncertainty. Europe’s attitude towards LNG is a complex web of contradictions, between decarbonisation, security and affordability of supply, and global geopolitics.  In conclusion, a strategic source of energy, but difficult to apprehend.

For the first episode of 2025, Gerard and Laurent have the pleasure of welcoming Shanu Mathew. Shanu is a Senior Vice President at Lazard Asset Management and Portfolio Manager/Analyst on US Sustainable Equity.  We are going to analyse the performance of “Cleantech” Equities throughout 2024 and discuss what to expect for 2025. Let’s be honest: 2024 was an annus horribilis for “Core” Cleantech with major indices (S&P Global Clean Energy Index) down 20%. But 2024 was also an exceptional year for “Periphery” (or adjacent) Cleantech with companies like Siemens Energy and GE Vernova being star performers.Why such a divergence between “Core” and “Periphery”? What fundamentals are sustaining such trends? Beside interest rates, political uncertainties, competition of China, there are some green shoots that certain segments have better captured than others.And of course, we are talking about load growth and the rise of datacenters. A rising tide lift all boats, and Core Cleantech having been so much slaughtered in recent years due to past excesses, we foresee a positive rebalancing in 2025.Overall, a very vast panorama of how the market values the future of the Energy Transition.

Happy new year to all our listeners. It has become a tradition for the first episode of the year: Gerard, Laurent and Michael present their 2025 Predictions in the Energy Transition.Here are the predictions that were made a year ago.1) Stellantis will outsource its EV production in China2) Politics: Elections in 2024 could derail the Energy Transition3) Oversupply of everything energy related – Prices are going down4) Stronger top-down governance of Transmission and Interconnection5) The return of Clean Energy shares6) China will gain massive international market in Wind and EVs  Winner for best predictions is Michael Barnard, and the loser is Laurent (as usual)  And here are our 6 predictions for 20251) Oil production down in the US in 20252) Oil prices will hit 40USD/bl in 20253) Geopolitics, stressed supply chains and Energy bonanza will bring a more innovative and better world4) A bloodbath for Hydrogen in the Transportation sector5) Record installation of Solar (700GW), EVs (20m) and Batteries (200GWh)6) The end of all financial products labelled ESG, Climate and Carbon  We wish all our listeners an excellent year 2025 and we love you all.

Merry Christmas. This is our last Episode of the Year where Laurent and Gerard summarise what impressed them, surprised them and shocked them. AI, Hydrogen, Renewables, USA vs Europe vs China, Climate. What worked, what did not work.2024 is a year that will be remembered at pivotal in so many aspects. We salute our friends, our influencers and unveil our book of the year: “The coming wave” by Mustafa Suleyman, not purely about Energy, but about the digital transformation that is revolutionising the world.Laurent and Gerard wish our listeners wonderful year end celebrations and… Buckle up for 2025.

Gerard delivered a master class at TedXBerlin about the four forces driving the Energy Revolution Solar, Batteries, Electronics and China. It is called “Welcome to the Era of Energy Disruption”  An excellent introduction for tomorrow’s world.   You can watch Gerard on YouTube:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VXwGvLj4rak  

Just Climate is a 1.5bnUSD vehicle established by Generation Investment with the mission to invest in the highest impact solutions that can radically reduce or remove emissions. They occupy the “missing middle” between VC and PE-Infra allowing growth, FOAK and deployment. Their positioning comes on the heels of VCs such as Prelude Ventures, Energy Impact Partners or Breakthrough Energy Ventures.Laurent and Gerard invite its co-CIO, Shaun Kingsbury, the “inventor” of North Sea Offshore Wind when he was at the head of UK Green Investment Bank.We talk about the investment thesis and its portfolio. Steel? Cement? Electro-mobility? Gerard discusses the general environment when it comes to Climate Tech (not great) and wonders if the third wave of Green Investment is not hitting a wall after years of exuberance.Shaun concludes that there is no future for climate innovations if they don’t deliver attractive risk-adjusted financial returns. There will be short term bumps, but the long term is bright.

Northvolt, once the poster child of the European battery industry, shocked the world last month by filling for Chapter 11 in the United States. The Swedish battery start-up burned through billions of euros in capital from investors such as Volkswagen, Goldman Sachs, and others, with little to show for it. Laurent and Gerard conduct a postmortem on this debacle of epic proportions.With access to confidential sources within the company and its supply chain, they arrived at the same conclusions as Robin Zheng, CEO of CATL—the world’s leading battery manufacturer—who stated: “They have the wrong design, the wrong process, and the wrong equipment. How can they scale up? So almost all mistakes together.”The root causes of Northvolt’s failure? Hubris and culture. What’s next for the European battery industry? It’s time to face reality: partner with the best or risk failure.Northvolt’s collapse is a tragedy for its believers and a costly loss for investors. However, the industry continues to grow at a breakneck pace, and with pragmatism, there is a path forward. 

Deploying solar and heat pumps in the residential sector is all well and good, but many attempts to scale have unfortunately failed.Beyond the king Octopus, Simon Phelan and his company Hometree have managed to become an unlikely challenger in the deployment of the Energy transition inside home. And Simon has achieved this feat by flipping the system onto his head.Hometree is a company that offers its customers home emergency breakdown insurance, plus installations and financing for energy efficient hardware. The achievements of Hometree are truly remarkable: 100,000 homes covered, a network 5,000 engineers, 100mEUR VC raised (Legal & General, Blackrock), 400mEUR securitisation of behind the meter asset portfolio (Barclays and CPPIB).How has the Hometree system cracked the code of home energy decarbonisation?They don’t “push” a product or a technology, they “pull” the client towards the best decarbonised solution. It starts with insurance, making sure that your heating system always work and thus creating long term relationships with clients.Then comes the financing with fully wrapped solutions that lower the prices; the financing is then securitised to investors. And it is a good risk. Finally, having boots on the ground to serve clients to repair, maintain or build.The eco-system is so versatile and powerful that all Utilities are looking to partner with Hometree … in the secret hope of staying relevant against the Octopus juggernaut.  We call Hometree: “the Best of the Rest”.