RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness North America

In this week's episode, Eric Gibson and Al Griffin discuss the latest findings from the RaboResearch North American agribusiness quarterly (ABQ), a report that analyzes approximately 20 segments across the North American food and agribusiness value chain. This episode features a recording of the latest ABQ Deskside Briefing, with several of the report's authors sharing their perspectives on key market developments and emerging trends. The discussion highlights an agribusiness sector that remains fundamentally stable but faces growing pressure from rising costs and geopolitical uncertainty. Demand remains resilient in key areas such as soybeans, dairy proteins, and consumer food spending, while higher transportation expenses and input costs are emerging as major challenges to profitability heading into 2027. The key takeaway: Supply shortages are not the primary concern today. Instead, the story is increasingly about margin pressure and the industry's ability to manage rising costs. Members of the team featured in this recording include: Eric Gibson, Crop Production Sustainability Analyst Al Griffin, Senior Data Analyst Steve Nicholson, Head of Crops Sam Taylor, Farm Inputs Analyst Xinnan Li, F&A Supply Chain Analyst Steve Rannekleiv, Food & Beverage Analyst Lucas Fuess, Dairy Analyst Time stamps: 0:00 – Welcome and introduction, Eric Gibson 00:10 – Introducing the North American agribusiness quarterly, Al Griffin 07:23 – Consumer foodservice outlook, Stephen Rannekleiv Consumer financial health continues to improve, supporting restaurant spending. Restaurant sales growth is being driven more by price increases than traffic growth, with traffic remaining relatively soft. Health and wellness trends continue to shape food demand, benefiting protein-focused and health-oriented concepts while pressuring some traditional fast-food categories. 12:02 – Logistics outlook, Xinnan Li Trucking rates have rebounded sharply and are now the biggest freight cost concern for agribusiness. Ocean freight rates have strengthened, but structural vessel oversupply should limit upside. Tariffs, geopolitical disruptions, and supply chain bottlenecks continue to create volatility across global logistics. 24:07 – Dairy outlook, Lucas Fuess US dairy production continues to expand, driven by significant herd growth. Beef-on-dairy calf values have become a critical source of dairy farm profitability. Cheese and butter markets remain under pressure, while whey protein demand continues to support higher prices. 26:15 – Farm inputs outlook, Samuel Taylor Fertilizer markets remain tight, particularly phosphates, while ammonia pricing risks are building. Crop protection chemicals, seed, and other input categories are expected to see continued inflation into 2027. Diesel and overall input cost inflation are expected to place additional pressure on grower margins next year. 36:01 – Grain & oilseed outlook, Stephen Nicholson Corn markets remain well supplied, with prices likely staying within established trading ranges absent a significant yield reduction. Soybeans continue to benefit from strong export demand, robust crush margins, and strength in soybean meal and oil markets. Key risks include weather uncertainty, Russia-Ukraine export disruptions, and rising production costs across the farm sector.   If you have questions or topics you would like us to consider for a future episode, please contact us at [email protected]. Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast. 

In this week's episode, Steve Nicholson, Head of North American Crops with RaboResearch, discusses Northern Hemisphere crop conditions, grain and oilseed markets, and emerging global risks with RaboResearch colleagues from around the world including:   Lief Chiang, Senior Industry Analyst, Asia  Vito Martielli, Senior Grains & Oilseeds Analyst, Europe  Owen Wagner, Senior Grains & Oilseeds Analyst, North America  While geopolitical risks, including impacts from the Middle East, remain part of the discussion, the conversation focuses on China-US trade developments, growing weather risks across key agricultural regions, and signs that strengthening demand could provide support to commodity markets.  Time stamps:   0:08 – Introduction, Steve Nicholson, Head of North American Crops with RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness  0:33 – China and Asia – Lief Chiang, Senior Industry Analyst China corn and soybean crop conditions Weather risks across Asia and emerging El Niño concerns China-US trade relations and soybean imports Crop protection and fertilizer export outlook  14:16 – Europe – Vito Martielli, Senior Grains & Oilseeds Analyst Impacts of Europe's heat wave Wheat production outlook Russian and Ukrainian crop update Corn market concerns in France and the EU Rising import demand and trade opportunities Ukraine's continued export resilience  23:05 – North America – Owen Wagner, Senior Grains & Oilseeds Analyst US corn and soybean crop conditions Field observations and regional variability Southeast US production challenges China-US soybean demand outlook Whether grain markets are finding a bottom Global supply risks and demand recovery A look ahead at input costs, weather, and market opportunities  40:45 – Wrap up and conclusion  If you have any questions you would like for us to consider, please send them to [email protected].   Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast.   

In our latest episode, Sam Taylor, Farm Inputs Analyst with RaboResearch, is joined by Justin Ratcliffe, Principal Analyst for Fertilizers at CRU North America, to explore the near-term outlook for global fertilizer markets. Justin leads CRU's North American fertilizer coverage, focusing on pricing, market intelligence, and strategic insights across nitrogen, phosphates, and potash. Geopolitical disruptions and shifting trade flows continue to shape markets, while affordability pressures and evolving supply dynamics are driving divergence across nutrients. Nitrogen prices have softened amid strong imports and cautious demand, while phosphate markets remain constrained by tight supply and elevated sulfur costs. The discussion highlights how these dynamics are creating ongoing volatility and uncertainty, with implications for global agricultural productivity over the next 12–24 months. Time stamps 00:00 – Welcome and introduction 02:30 – Nitrogen reset: geopolitics, supply influx, and demand hesitation drive price correction 12:25 – Nitrogen price outlook 13:50 – Phosphates: tight supply vs. affordability constraints 19:35 – China and supply risk: export uncertainty and tight sulfur supplies 27:25 – Potash: stability and affordability support steady demand 30:00 – Forward risks: policy shifts and "black swan" events with limited market impact amid growing resilience 33:30 – Closing remarks and Kansas City BBQ If you have any questions you would like for us to consider, please send them to [email protected].   Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast. 

In this episode, members of the global RaboResearch team provide a brief update on grain and oilseed markets and production across some of the Southern Hemisphere's largest growing regions, including Australia, Southern and Southeast Asia, and South America. Amid ongoing concerns around the Iran conflict and its impact on energy and agricultural inputs, our analysts discuss how these pressures are affecting regional production and profitability, and how impacts may evolve into the second half of 2026. At the same time, the lingering threat of El Niño could introduce additional stress across key growing regions and global trade flows. These combined factors are already driving shifts in crop mix and planted area for the current season, with important implications for 2027 and beyond. Time stamps: 00:00 – Steve Nicholson, Head of North American Crops: Welcome. 00:32 – Vitor Cacula Pistoia, Senior Analyst – Grains & Oilseeds, Australia: Iran conflict impacts on inputs and diesel, margin pressure, and El Niño risk. 5:14 – Oscar Tjakra, Senior Analyst – Southern & Southeast Asia: Palm oil outlook, El Niño risk, and the Iran conflict's impact on Indian production. 11:13 – Marcela Marini, Senior Analyst – Grains & Oilseeds, South America: Brazil production outlook, cost pressures, and potential planted area adjustments. 18:00 – Wrap-up and conclusion Be on the lookout for our next episode, featuring regional updates for the Northern Hemisphere including China, Europe, and the US. If you have any questions you would like for us to consider in our discussion, please send them to [email protected]. Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast. 

RaboResearch's Farm Inputs Analyst Sam Taylor discusses the ever-complex topic of US fertilizer supplies and production with CRU Group's Head of Market Intelligence, Chris Lawson. As farm profitability is reaching historic lows and inputs remain high, a great amount of attention has been placed on fertilizer's role in farm economics. With growing political pressures to increase self-sufficiency, a number of other barriers remain constant in the ability to significantly increase domestic production of nitrogen, phosphorus, and potash. In recent news, the Trump administration has announced efforts to drastically increase capabilities and support, aiming to lessen the demand for fertilizer imports by accelerating domestic capacity. At the same time, multiple input companies and other sources would suggest curtailment in domestic production is the short-term reality. Efforts to boost US fertilizer supply may have no choice but to rely on imports. However, opportunities exist with the right partners – namely the US' neighbors to the north and south. Chris Lawson serves as Head of Market Intelligence at CRU Group, providing pricing and consultancy guidance for the organization. With his Australian farming background, Chris is well-rooted in agriculture and understands the sector's cross-value chain needs. Time stamps: 1:38 – Introducing Chris Lawson, CRU Group 2:30 – Can the US realistically boost fertilizer production over the next two to three years? 4:10 – Why nitrogen is the best opportunity for the US to reduce its trade deficit on fertilizers 11:52 – Phosphates: production curtailment in the short-term, but what about long-term production in the US? 18:05 – Exploring raw materials outside of the US and potential alternatives for traditional mining sources 22:10 – Can strategic reserves offset the highs and lows of production and cost cycles? 24:50 – Strategic partnerships and trade are a necessary requirement to ensure input availability moving forward, particularly with potash 25:50 – North American solutions vs. exclusively US production and supply 28:00 – Wrap-up and conclusion If you have any questions you would like for us to consider in our discussion, please send them to [email protected].   Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast. 

Welcome back to the North America Agribusiness podcast channel. Did you miss us? We're starting up a new series, focused on production and markets for North American crops, ranging from commodities in the Midwest to specialty crops in California. In this episode, the RaboResearch North American Crops team discusses how the conflict in Iran is impacting global crop production – and what that means for North American agriculture. But first, we would like to introduce you to our team. Focusing on all things crops, from grains and oilseeds to stone fruits and berries, we bring current and timely insights along with in-depth overviews of the research we are conducting, as well as what we are hearing across the agri-food value chain. In today's episode, we are excited to introduce our six-member team and some of the research we're working on. Our team includes: Steve Nicholson, Head of Crops, North America David Magaña, Senior Fresh Produce and Tree Nut Analyst Sam Taylor, Executive Director, Farm Input Analyst Owen Wagner, Senior Grains and Oilseeds Analyst Al Griffin, Senior Data Analyst Eric Gibson, Crop Production Sustainability Analyst Over the coming weeks, we will further explore research topics ranging from the competitiveness of North American crops and value drivers to specialty crop opportunities and soil health. Check back every couple of weeks to see what our team and other members of RaboResearch have in store. Time stamps: 01:00 – Meet the North American RaboResearch Crops Team 12:45 – Research we are currently focusing on and will cover in future episodes 35:15 – Impacts of the Iran conflict on crop production and farm inputs in 2026 and into 2027 43:58 – Conclusion, until next time! If you have any questions you would like for us to consider in our discussion, please send them to [email protected].   Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast.

The RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness global grains and oilseeds team is back with an update on what's driving global markets and trade this summer.

Tune in as Rabobank's global team of grain & oilseed analysts join Global Strategist Steve Nicholson for their quarterly review of global G&O markets.  

2023 ends and 2024 begins with an unusual number of unknowns in commodity markets and across the industry. RaboResearch grain & oilseed analysts Steve Nicholson, Andrick Payen, and Owen Wagner sort through the clutter and try to bring order to the year-end jumble. In the second half of the episode, Steve talks to Brazil-based RaboResearch farm inputs analyst Bruno Fonseca about one area that's actually more settled than a year ago – farm inputs.

Global Strategist for Grains & Oilseeds Steve Nicholson polls his colleagues around the globe for their thoughts on the biggest developments in the sector this year and what to watch for in the year ahead.