Could the Iran War Cause a New Oil Crisis? | FT's Chief Economics Commentator Martin Wolf

Listeners can get 20% off Misadventures in Shipping subscriptions through April 17th here: https://edfin.substack.com/monetary Subscription includes access to Substack research pieces and private Twitter (X) account. ____ In this episode, Ed Finley-Richardson of the Misadventures in Shipping Substack joins Jack to break down how the Middle East conflict is creating unprecedented chaos (and massive profits) in the global shipping industry. With the ongoing disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz, global trade routes are being radically redrawn, forcing massive surges in spot market freight rates. Ed explains why smaller "MR" product tankers carrying refined fuels from the U.S. Gulf to Asia are currently minting fortunes, while very large crude carriers (VLCCs) prices are moderating after a surge that pre-dated the Iran War because of the aggressive actions of a certain Korean businessman. We dive deep into the specific tanker stocks positioned to capture this volatility, analyzing the fleets, corporate governance, and dividend potentials of major players like Frontline, International Seaways, and DHT Holdings. Listeners will learn about the counterintuitive economic forces unique to maritime trade, where logistical inefficiency directly drives margin expansion for shipowners. Finally, Ed lays out his "feeding frenzy" scenario—a potential massive logistical traffic jam that could occur if the straits reopen, proving exactly why books will be written about this generational shipping market. Recorded April 2, 2026. Pieces discussed from “Misadventures in Shipping”: “Bauxite (3): Why China is ‘locked in’ to Guinea as their main supplier” (March 14, 2026): https://edfin.substack.com/p/bauxite-3 “Hummus Fallout: A de facto Strait of Hormuz 'closure' is leading to a crescendo of panic” (March 6, 2026): https://edfin.substack.com/p/hummus-fallout “Atlantic MR Bonanza: Who Benefits Most?” (March 20, 2026): https://edfin.substack.com/p/atlantic-mr-bonanza-who-benefits “Iron Ore: Indexes, Inventories” (April 3, 2026): https://edfin.substack.com/p/iron-ore-indexes-inventories “DHT — How At Risk from Hormuz Fall-Out?” (March 10, 2026): https://edfin.substack.com/p/dht-how-at-risk-from-hormuz-fall “The Strait of Hormuz & Tankers (1)” (April 4, 2024): https://edfin.substack.com/p/hummus-fallout “VLCC S&P Rumor — 10 Vessels Sold” (January 7, 2024): https://edfin.substack.com/p/vlcc-s-and-p-rumor-10-vessels-sold “VLCC Period Charter Modeling” (February 26, 2026): https://edfin.substack.com/p/vlcc-period-charter-modeling Follow Ed Finley-Richardson on X https://x.com/ed_fin Follow Jack Farley on X https://x.com/jackfarley96  Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

This episode is brought to you by the Pictet AI Enhanced International Equity ETF ($PQNT):  https://etf.am.pictet.com/pqnt/?utm_campaign=usetf&cid=2715538577&utm_source=jfmv&utm_content=pqnt&utm_medium=podcast_02&utm_term=noterm Learn More about Pictet AI Enhanced US Equity ETF: https://etf.am.pictet.com/pqus/ In this episode of Monetary Matters, Bloomberg Chief US Economist Anna Wong explains why surging oil prices are unlikely to trigger a repeat of the 9% inflation seen in 2022. Wong argues that even if oil reaches $200 per barrel, headline CPI would likely peak near 6% before declining due to "base effects" and a lack of the excess consumer savings that fueled previous price spikes. She highlights the reality of "demand destruction," noting that sustained $100 oil would sap nearly $2,000 in spending power from the average American household. Despite these pressures, Wong does not view a recession as her base case, citing the offsetting support of expansionary fiscal policy and increased domestic production in the energy and defense sectors. The discussion also explores why the Federal Reserve should "look through" these commodity shocks, particularly as core PCE remains influenced by more persistent issues like the AI-driven memory chip shortage. Finally, Wong compares our current macro landscape to the 1970s, suggesting that while the situations "rhyme," a full repeat would require a much larger surge in government-driven demand. Recorded March 31, 2026 Follow Anna Wong on X https://x.com/AnnaEconomist Follow Jack Farley on X https://x.com/jackfarley96  Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

This episode is brought to you by Pictet’s AI Enhanced Equity ETFs Learn More about Pictet AI Enhanced US Equity ETF: https://etf.am.pictet.com/pqus/ Learn more about the Pictet AI Enhanced International Equity ETF ($PQNT): https://etf.am.pictet.com/pqnt/?utm_campaign=usetf&cid=2715538577&utm_source=jfmv&utm_content=pqnt&utm_medium=podcast_02&utm_term=noterm Join Max Wiethe on "Other People's Money" as he sits down with world-renowned performance coach Dr. Gio Valiante. Dr. Valiante has spent decades coaching elite performers, from PGA Tour champions like Jordan Spieth to legendary portfolio managers at Point 72 and Citadel. In this deep-dive podcast, Dr. Valiante pulls back the curtain on the psychology of the world’s most successful investors. He explains that top traders operate with the discipline and optimization of elite athletes—"investor athletes"—who must manage fear, detach from ego, and master their environment. Follow Dr. Gio: https://x.com/GioValiante Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR X https://x.com/opmpod Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 00:42 Pictet ETFs 00:55 Why Pods Took Over 03:04 Culture and Incentives Matter 05:19 Fear in Trading Explained 08:53 Embarrassment and Risk Aversion 12:03 Playing to Win vs Not Lose 13:21 Elite Funds Audit Process 14:34 Regret and Missed Trades 19:21 Pictet AI ETFs 20:56 Detaching from Short Term PnL 22:21 Weekends Recovery for PMs 24:15 Handling Weekend News Cycles 28:41 Regulation Favors Big Platforms 32:30 Spinoffs Vs Bootstrapping 33:29 Bootstrapped Edge 34:33 Leaving Pod Shop Reality 36:05 Situated Cognition Explained 37:55 Culture Sparks Ideas 39:43 Mandates and Opportunity Cost 41:17 Ego Identity and Seat 45:04 Capital Cycles Perspective 48:46 Entitlement Versus Humility 54:39 Performance Hierarchy 57:57 Why Hedge Funds Matter 01:00:18 Masters Picks and Wrap 01:01:54 Pictet AI ETFs

This episode is brought to you by the Pictet AI Enhanced International Equity ETF ($PQNT):  https://etf.am.pictet.com/pqnt/?utm_campaign=usetf&cid=2715538577&utm_source=jfmv&utm_content=pqnt&utm_medium=podcast_02&utm_term=noterm Learn More about Pictet AI Enhanced US Equity ETF:https://etf.am.pictet.com/pqus/ In this episode, Jack sits down with Leyla Kunimoto, founder of Accredited Investor Insights, to discuss her journey into private markets and the ongoing "democratization" of alternative assets. The conversation explores the rise of "evergreen" or semi-liquid structures, which allow retail investors to bypass the traditional "J curve" by deploying capital almost immediately. Leyla provides a detailed look at the current wave of redemption requests hitting major private credit funds like Cliffwater and Blackstone, explaining the mechanics of 5% quarterly caps used to prevent the fire selling of assets. She further breaks down the risks associated with Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs) and the rise of "shadow defaults" through payment-in-kind (PIK) interest toggles. The interview highlights why Leyla currently prefers publicly traded Business Development Companies (BDCs) over private ones, noting the potential arbitrage available when public shares trade at a significant discount to their net asset value. Finally, Leyla shares why she is far more bearish on private equity than private credit, citing the asset class's extreme opaqueness and junior position in the capital stack. Recorded March 29, 2026. Accredited Insight: Cliffwater Part 1: https://www.accreditedinsight.com/p/cliffwater-corporate-lending-fund Cliffwater Redemptions: https://www.accreditedinsight.com/p/cliffwater-corporate-lending-fund-d4c Follow Leyla Kunimoto on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/lkunimoto/ Follow Leyla Kunimoto on X https://x.com/LeylaKuni Follow Jack Farley on X https://x.com/jackfarley96  Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

Learn More About Unlimited HFGM Global Macro ETF $HFGM: https://unlimitedetfs.com/hfgm   Former Head of Sovereign Credit at PIMCO Lupin Rahman joins Jack to discuss sovereign debt and its peculiarities. She explains why its technicals can differ significantly from fundamentals, the growth of emerging market debt, and risks to consider when investing in these assets. Jack and Lupin also discuss the important conflict in the Middle East and what it means for markets across the world. As an expert in both sovereign debt and emerging markets, Lupin is an important voice to consider when assessing global fixed income markets. Recorded on March 16th, 2026.   Lupin Rahman’s Book https://www.amazon.com Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/jackfarley96 Follow Lupin Rahman on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/lupin-rahman/   Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

This episode is brought to you by the Pictet AI Enhanced International Equity ETF ($PQNT):  https://etf.am.pictet.com/pqnt/?utm_campaign=usetf&cid=2715538577&utm_source=jfmv&utm_content=pqnt&utm_medium=podcast_02&utm_term=noterm In this episode of Monetary Matters,  Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab’s Chief Investment Strategist, explains how 2026 presents an "analytically rich" environment where headline indices are currently masking significant underlying market stress. She notes that while the S&P 500 shows a modest drawdown, the average stock is seeing much steeper declines, reflecting a period of intense "rotation and churn" triggered by the war in Iran and a spike in oil prices. Sonders highlights a critical shift in investor behavior, where the previous year's preference for non-profitable speculative stocks has flip-flopped in favor of a "quality" factor centered on stable profitability and strong balance sheets. She draws parallels to the 1990 period, warning that the lack of alternate routes for oil through the Strait of Hormuz could lead to sustained economic demand destruction. Despite these geopolitical shocks, Sonders observes that forward earnings estimates for the tech and energy sectors remain surprisingly resilient, though she anticipates downward revisions as reporting season approaches. Ultimately, she reminds investors that in such a volatile cycle, "better or worse" as a leading indicator often matters more to the market than whether the data is objectively "good or bad". Recorded March 24, 2026. Pieces referenced: “Dire Strait: War's Impact on Stocks”: https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/dire-strait-wars-impact-on-stocks “Schwab Market Perspective”:  https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/stock-market-outlook “Smoke on the Water…Fire Under the Surface”: https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/smoke-on-waterfire-under-surface Follow Liz Ann Sonders on X https://x.com/LizAnnSondersFollow Liz Ann Sonders on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/lizannsonders/ Follow Jack Farley on X https://x.com/jackfarley96  Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Because these ETFs rely on an AI-driven model, the strategy may not perform as intended. International and U.S investments may involve additional risks such as currency, political, or regulatory developments. Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of the Funds before investing. The prospectus contains this and other important information and may be obtained by visiting www.pictet.com/etf. Read it carefully before investing. Distributed by Foreside Fund Services.

Learn more about Teucrium’s CORN ETF (CORN) here: https://teucrium.com/corn Nadia Martin Wiggen, Director at Svelland Capital joins Other People’s Money for a timely update on energy and shipping markets in light of the “5-day pause” Truth Social post that sent equity markets ripping higher and oil prices dipping lower. She explains why Svelland Capital believes May is the real timeline for controlling the Strait, how refining margins and refined product hoarding create a persistent bid for oil and gas, and how global energy supply chains have shifted with many ships sailing well outside of typical trade routes in their quest for alternative sources of oil. She also touches on how a protracted crisis would harm Asia, Australia, and emerging markets the most. Svelland Capital: https://www.svelland.com/ Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR X https://x.com/opmpod This episode is sponsored by the Teucrium Corn Fund (CORN). Download our free eBook, "Why Investors Are Increasingly Turning to Commodity ETFs," to explore the macro forces shaping commodity markets today. Download the eBook: insights.teucrium.com/why-investors-turning-to-commodity-etfs CORN Fund Page & Prospectus: www.teucrium.com/corn This material must be preceded or accompanied by a prospectus. The prospectus is available at https://teucrium.com/corn. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Commodities and futures generally are volatile, and instruments whose underlying investments include commodities and futures are not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For further discussion of these and additional risks associated with an investment in the Funds please read the respective Fund Prospectus before investing. CORN, CANE, SOYB, and WEAT are commodity pools regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The Funds do not track the spot price of corn, sugar, soybeans or wheat. These Funds, which are ETPs, are not a mutual fund or any other type of Investment Company within the meaning of the Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended, and are not subject to regulation thereunder. Teucrium Trading, LLC is the Sponsor for CORN, CANE, SOYB, and WEAT. PINE Distributors LLC is the Marketing Agent for CORN, CANE, SOYB, and WEAT and is not affiliated with Teucrium Investment Advisors, LLC and Teucrium Trading, LLC. Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 00:46 Reaction to Trump Announcement and State of the Strait 01:57 Strait Reality Check 05:53 Oil Flows and Bottlenecks 09:32 Asia Scrambles for Supply 12:55 China Refined Export Ban 14:01 Demand Destruction Thresholds 15:05 Military Path to Reopen 17:09 CORN Mid Roll 18:46 New Oil Price Floor 21:28 Broader Market Repricing 25:06 Shipping Rates and Europe Pull 27:33 Export Bans and Hoarding Spiral 30:11 US Refining Edge and Australia 34:37 LNG Shortfall and Europe Risk 41:00 Long Term Diversification 41:33 Trading Signals and Logistics 45:16 Most Vulnerable Products

Sponsor: Teucrium Corn Fund (NYSE Arca: CORN): https://teucrium.com/corn In this episode of Monetary Matters, StoneX Vice President Josh Linville explains how the Iran War and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have triggered a global fertilizer crisis that is currently crippling agricultural economics. With urea prices effectively doubling in just a few months, Josh warns that the market is facing a supply shock far more severe than the 2022 crisis because current grain prices aren't high enough to offset these surging input costs. The geopolitical bottleneck in the Persian Gulf has effectively sidelined three of the world's top ten urea exporters, removing enough nitrogen from the market to cover nearly the entire US corn crop. Beyond shipping delays, recent attacks on energy infrastructure in Qatar and Iran have caused structural damage that experts estimate could take three to five years to fully repair. This massive loss of production capacity, combined with a lack of global stockpiles, means the market must now find balance through aggressive demand destruction. Consequently, the price floor for critical fertilizers has likely been raised for the remainder of 2026, forcing farmers to make difficult choices about planting and yields. Join us as we explore the long-term implications for global food security and why the current "bleeding red" financial state of farming might lead to higher agricultural commodity prices. Recorded March 20, 2026. Follow Josh Linville https://www.stonex.com/en/market-experts/josh-linville/ Josh Linville on X https://x.com/JLinvilleFert Josh Linville on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/joshua-linville-9555a711 ______ This episode is sponsored by the Teucrium Corn Fund (CORN). Download our free eBook, "Why Investors Are  Increasingly Turning to Commodity ETFs," to explore the macro forces shaping commodity markets today.  Download the eBook: insights.teucrium.com/why-investors-turning-to-commodity-etfs  CORN Fund Page & Prospectus: www.teucrium.com/corn  This material must be preceded or accompanied by a prospectus. The prospectus is available at  https://teucrium.com/corn. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Commodities and futures generally are volatile, and  instruments whose underlying investments include commodities and futures are not suitable for all investors. Past  performance does not guarantee future results.  For further discussion of these and additional risks associated with an investment in the Funds please read the  respective Fund Prospectus before investing.  CORN, CANE, SOYB, and WEAT are commodity pools regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading  Commission (CFTC). The Funds do not track the spot price of corn, sugar, soybeans or wheat. These Funds,  which are ETPs, are not a mutual fund or any other type of Investment Company within the meaning of the  Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended, and are not subject to regulation thereunder. Teucrium Trading,  LLC is the Sponsor for CORN, CANE, SOYB, and WEAT.  PINE Distributors LLC is the Marketing Agent for CORN, CANE, SOYB, and WEAT and is not affiliated with  Teucrium Investment Advisors, LLC and Teucrium Trading, LLC.  Sources  • Fertilizer trade through Strait of Hormuz: International Fertilizer Association (IFA), Global Fertilizer Trade Data; USDA  ERS, Fertilizer Use and Price reports.  • Corn as heaviest nitrogen user: USDA Economic Research Service, Fertilizer Use and Price (most recent edition). • Input cost / margin impact and acreage-switching scenarios: Framing is conditional and analytical; not presented as  projections. Consistent with FINRA 2210(d)(1) standards for educational market commentary.  • Fund structure: Teucrium Corn Fund Prospectus (most recent effective date).  Marketing Agent: PINE Distributors LLC.  5324752

20% discount to annual subscription to Rory Johnston’s Commodity Context: https://www.commoditycontext.com/monetarymatters In this urgent episode of Monetary Matters Today, Jack sits down with Rory Johnston of Commodity Context to break down the unprecedented global oil shock caused by the ongoing war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. With 20 million barrels of daily flow disrupted and 9 million barrels of confirmed production shut-ins across the Middle East, Johnston warns that the market is facing a supply loss multiple times larger than the 2022 Russian invasion fears. They explore the timeline of global impact, the looming threat of operational shutdowns for Asian refineries, and why Johnston believes political de-escalation by President Trump is the only way to avoid $200+ oil and a global economic depression. Recorded March 19, 2026. Pieces discussed:  Oil & Iran War Context Weekly (W11) (March 13 2026) https://www.commoditycontext.com/p/ocw11w26 “No End in Sight,” March 12, 2026: https://www.commoditycontext.com/p/no-end-in-sight Oil and the Iran War Context Weekly (W10), March 6, 2026: https://www.commoditycontext.com/p/ocw10w26 North American Oil Data Deck (March 4, 2026):  https://www.commoditycontext.com/p/north-american-oil-data-deck-march-2026 “Strait to the Point on Iran (March 2, 2026)”:  https://www.commoditycontext.com/p/strait-to-the-point-on-iran Follow Rory Johnston on X: https://x.com/Rory_Johnston Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/jackfarley96  Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

Learn More About Unlimited HFGM Global Macro ETF $HFGM: https://unlimitedetfs.com/hfgm In this episode of Monetary Matters, Jack Farley and Max Wiethe are joined by Bob Elliott, Chief Investment Officer at Unlimited Funds, to discuss the economic fallout of the recent conflict and surging oil prices. Elliott explains that the massive spike in oil prices—which recently topped $110 for Brent and $150 in Oman—will inevitably reduce consumer spending power, fuel higher inflation, and drag down real economic growth. He argues that both the stock and bond markets are currently mispricing this risk, making a strong case for that both asset classes could struggle as yields rise. Furthermore, Elliott dismisses the Federal Reserve's 2026 inflation target of 2.7% as wildly unrealistic, warning that persistent inflation will keep the Fed from cutting rates anytime soon. Finally, Jack and Max preview their upcoming interviews with industry experts to further unpack the disruptions to global oil production, fertilizer supply chains, and shipping. Recorded afternoon of March 18, 2026, after FOMC meeting. Follow Bob Elliott on Twitter https://x.com/BobEUnlimited Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/jackfarley96  Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez