M&A deal reshuffles the senior gold mining sector

The gold market is spinning its wheels, caught in a stalemate, which could create some profit-taking among investors and weigh on prices in the near term, noted mining audiences manager Michael McCrae. On Saturday McCrae recorded Kitco Roundtable. Heading into the weekend, markets continue to digest the disappointing nonfarm payrolls numbers. The U.S. economy created 175,000 jobs last month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The monthly figure missed expectations as economists were looking for job gains of 238,000.At the same time, the unemployment rate increased, and wages didn’t rise as much as expected.This was initially good news for the gold market, and prices briefly popped; however, in a fatigued market, many traders used the rally to sell. The gold market has managed to hold support above $2,300 an ounce, but it is ending the week with a roughly 1% loss.After its massive $400+ rally, the gold market continues to consolidate and trend lower as sentiment normalizes. The focus again turns to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and interest rates.According to analysts, gold investors need more clarity from the Federal Reserve as a rate cut this summer becomes increasingly unlikely.

Given higher than expected inflation print this week, the Federal Reserve is less likely to lower interest rates. On Friday mining audiences manager recorded Kitco Roundtable. Gold investors could see higher volatility next week as the Federal Reserve is expected to signal it will not be ready to lower interest rates before the summer.The weakness comes as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge – the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index – showed that inflation remains higher than preferred, rising 2.8% over the prior year in March, above estimates for 2.7% On Wednesday the Fed will make an interest rate announced followed by a press briefing by U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.Mid week Bloomberg reported that BHP Group has made an unsolicited offer for Anglo American. BHP Group is the world's largest diversified miner with a market cap of about $150 billion. The deal could equal $39 billion making it one of the largest mining deals in decades. BHP is interested in Anglo American's copper assets. Anglo American is expected to produce 730–790 kt of copper in 2024 mostly due to operations in Chile and Peru.

With Middle East conflict unwinding, a focus on the Fed could slow gold's momentum. On Saturday mining audiences manager Michael McCrae recorded Kitco Roundtable. For now, the Israel-Iran conflict seems to have tamped down, which removes some safe-haven demand for gold and puts renewed focus on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.This week Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell surprised markets with a brief hawkish comment. While speaking at an event in Washington, D.C., Powell said that after the release of hotter-than-expected inflation data, the central bank has less confidence it is ready to cut interest rates. A June rate cut is basically off the table, and markets only see a 50/50 chance of a July rate cut.In mining news the Biden Administration denied the building of an access road to Triology Metals' base metals project in central Alaska. The the Upper Kobuk Mineral Projects is a joint venture with South32 50/50. Triology dropped about 25% for the week.

Gold jumped another 5% this week with June gold futures hitting $2,350 an ounce.On Saturday mining audiences manager Michael McCrae recorded Kitco Roundtable. Copper was also on fire, which were up 4.6% for the week to close above $4.20. The copper miners are up 20% year to date and trading at a 52 week high. Gold miners are up just 10% year to date, according to the GDX. U.S. job growth blew past expectations in March and wages increased at a steady clip. However the strong job numbers suggest that the Federal Reserve will put off a rate hike to later this year.

Metals could get a lift with the Fed signaling that it wants to cut interest rates, note mining audiences manager Michael McCrae.On Saturday McCrae recorded Kitco Roundtable.Gold ended the week flat with spot at $2165.The metal did spike mid-week. The Federal Reserve has given the all-clear to gold after signaling it still wants to cut interest rates three-times this year, even as inflation remains above the 2% target.In mining news Calibre Mining (TSX: CXB) announced a C$100 million bought-deal financing at a price of $1.68 per common share of Calibre. Calibre is a mid-tier gold producer with operations in Newfoundland & Labrador in Canada, Nevada and Washington in the U.S., and Nicaragua.Digging Deep: https://www.buzzsprout.com/2326395Green Rush: https://www.buzzsprout.com/2326398

Copper gained nearly 6% this week to trade above $4 pound, noted mining audiences manager Michael McCrae. On Saturday McCrae recorded Kitco Roundtable. Copper got a boost with news that potentially less metal will be available. According to Reuters, China announced that it was cutting production at some loss-making copper smelters. Copper bulls see years of low prices along with diminishing production as a good sign for the metal when the energy transition theme fully kicks in. The lithium sector looked bullish with big financings announced. Lithium Americas received a record $2.2 billion loan from the US Department of Energy (DOE) to finance the construction of processing facilities at Thacker Pass in Nevada. Liontown Resources (ASX:LTER) announced this week a A$550 million debt facility to fund the company's Kathleen Valley lithium project through first production and ramp-up to the 3Mtpa base case.

Gold's run is having limited benefit for gold miners, noted mining audiences manager Michael McCrae. On Saturday, McCrae recorded Kitco Roundtable. After an impressive seven-day rally, which pushed prices to an all-time high of $2,203, the gold market could see some consolidation in the near term, writes editor Neils Christensen. Profit taking and the lack of any near term catalysts could dampen gold's run going forward. Gold's run has had muted impact upon gold equities. Although gold companies are up 9% this month, they are still down for the year and more than half their all time high early last decade. According to a report by Reuters, the Romanian government said on Friday it won an arbitrage trial filed by Canada's Gabriel Resources (GBU.V). The company planned to build Europe's largest open pit gold mine in the western Romanian town of Rosia Montana.Gabriel Resources had sought at least $4.4 billion in damages from Romania.

Both copper and gold were higher this week with signs that the Fed may be easing as soon as June. On Saturday mining audiences manager Michael McCrae recorded Kitco Roundtable with correspondent Paul Harris.

Gold recovered after tumbling mid week due to a hotter than expected CPI number, noted mining audiences manager Michael McCrae. On Saturday McCrae and Kitco correspondent Paul Harris recorded Kitco Roundtable. On Tuesday the Labor Statistics said that its Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in January, higher than the Consensus forecasts of 0.2% increase. Markets tumbled and gold dropped below the 2000 level.The week started with a tragic mine accident in Turkey. SSR Mining suspended production at its Copler mine after a landslide resulted in at least nine miners missing.

New Gold announced a big production update this week, noted mining audiences manager Michael McCrae. On Saturday, McCrae recorded Kitco Roundtable with correspondent Paul Harris.New Gold reported that consolidated gold production is expected to increase by approximately 35% from 2023 to 410,000 to 460,000 ounces in 2026 driven by increasing production profiles at both Rainy River and New Afton as growth projects are completed in the near-term. The company still sold off in a down market for gold miners, off 6% for the week to $1.58 a share. New Gold is a Canadian-focused intermediate mining Company with a portfolio of two core producing assets in Canada, the Rainy River gold mine and the New Afton copper-gold mine. The other precious metal, silver, shows promise. According to Christopher Vecchio, Head of Futures & Forex at Tastylive.com, the metal is near a year low. It also does well during periods of volatility. The U.S. is heading into an election year. The congress is also setting up for a budget fight.