The Imminent End of the Ukraine War?

Following Donald Trump’s election victory, we ask if this could be the beginning of the end of the fighting in Ukraine. President-elect Trump has famously claimed he can end the Ukraine war in a day. While there is skepticism about this claim, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has recently indicated that Russia’s war in Ukraine will end ‘faster’ when Trump re-enters the White House. But what would a deal to stop the fighting look like, and what will the implications of a ceasefire be for Ukraine, the Euro-Atlantic community and Russia? Host Neil Melvin sits down with Professor Mark Galeotti, Senior Associate Fellow at RUSI and Director of Mayak Intelligence, and Andriy Zagorodnyuk, the Chairman of the Ukrainian Centre for Defence Strategies think-tank, to answer such questions and more.

As Russia turns to Pyongyang for reinforcements against Ukraine, we explore the events that have shaped North Korea as a security actor. Following the stalling of the ‘Six Party’ talks about North Korea’s nuclear weapons programme in 2008, the country attracted little international attention until 2019 and Donald Trump’s ultimately fruitless attempts to unlock the relationship through summit diplomacy. During the Biden administration there have been few initiatives towards North Korea; Washington has focused instead on strengthening the relationship with South Korea and other regional allies. As the war in Ukraine has dragged on, Russia has increasingly turned to North Korea for weapons and, more recently, also troops. In this episode, host Neil Melvin is joined by Dr Philip Shetler-Jones, Senior Research Fellow at RUSI, and Ha Chae Kyoun (CK), former visiting fellow at RUSI under the Korea Foundation project, to discuss the implications of North Korea’s involvement, and how other countries are responding. This episode is brought to you as part of the Korea Programme, sponsored by the Korea Foundation.

The world order is being challenged by new organisations and initiatives designed to sideline existing Western-led institutions. The latest summit of the group of states known collectively as the BRICS is a case in point. Originally involving Brazil, Russia, India and China, with South Africa joining later, the group has now expanded to bring in new members, including Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia and the UAE, with a long waiting list of other potential members building up. Often seen as a ‘talking shop’, the BRICS has been given a new strategic purpose by Russia and China as a mechanism to challenge US-led alliances and global institutions. But the BRICS is not the only international format to emerge in recent years. And Brazil, together with India, has been uncomfortable with China and Russia’s efforts to turn the BRICS into an anti-Western bloc. In this episode, host Neil Melvin is joined by Dr Philip Shetler-Jones, Dr Burcu Ozcelik and Callum Fraser from the International Security team at RUSI to discuss what sort of organisation the BRICS is becoming as efforts are made to consolidate its activities and expand its membership. Can a new international order emerge from the current ferment?  

One year on from Hamas’ 7 October attack on Israel, we look at the current state of the conflict in the Middle East and its future trajectory. Last week marked the one-year anniversary of the horrific Hamas attacks on 7 October. There are still no indications of how and under what conditions the war will end. To the contrary, all indications are that the region is on the precipice of a wider and deadlier war. The second in our series on the evolving crises in the Middle East, this episode will aim to explore the situation on the ground and the implications for geopolitical and geoeconomic relations inside the region, as well as the Middle East’s relations with external actors. Host Neil Melvin is joined by RUSI Senior Research Fellow Burcu Ozcelik and RUSI Senior Associate Fellow Michael Stephens to discuss what has changed in the region since Iran’s ballistic missile attack against Israel on 1 October 2024. How should we interpret Israel’s strategic objectives as it expands its military campaign against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon? What is Israel’s likely long game in Lebanon? And do the US or the UK have any real influence over Israel’s military decision-making and the course of the spiraling conflict?

Two years on, how has Japan progressed with its planned national security reforms, and how is it adapting to regional security challenges? In December 2022, Japan announced plans to almost double its defence budget and acquire a new set of strike capabilities. The context for that decision was a sense of rising danger and a need to be prepared to assume a larger defence burden. The plans progressed under the leadership of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, but he has now been replaced in this post. Shigeru Ishiba, Japan’s new prime minister, inherits a set of circumstances at home and abroad that will challenge this defence pivot. In this episode, host Neil Melvin is joined by RUSI Senior Research Fellow Philip Shetler-Jones to discuss the original motivation behind these reforms, as well as what progress has been made. What sort of domestic debate is there in Japan on foreign and security policy? And will Japan be able to deliver on its ambitious plans? This episode is sponsored by the Embassy of Japan.

As tensions continue to rise in the Middle East, we launch a new mini-series dedicated to understanding the dynamics shaping the region. We are launching a regular new series of episodes of Global Security Briefing designed to foster a better understanding of the current situation in the region, entitled ‘The Middle East in Crisis’, which aims to review and provide analysis on the unfolding political, economic and security dynamics reshaping the region.  After months of tensions, including the detonation of electronic communication devices used by Hezbollah across Lebanon and Syria, Israel now appears to be on the verge of an all-out war with Hezbollah in Lebanon. Almost a year on from the 7 October attacks, de-escalation efforts appear exhausted and violence is broadening. In this episode, host Neil Melvin is joined by RUSI Senior Research Fellow Burcu Ozcelik and Senior Associate Fellow Michael Stephens to take stock of the current situation and explain the dynamics driving the current multifront crisis.   

In this edition, we will be returning to Russia’s war against Ukraine as both sides increasingly look towards another winter of fighting. Since the autumn/winter of last year, there have been further swings in the war as Russia launched a long offensive and Ukraine suffered a lack of weapons due to political deadlock in the US Congress and a shortage of manpower. More recently, in a surprise operation, Ukraine has launched a successful incursion into Russia itself – seizing territory in Kursk – and it has continued to inflict damage on Russian naval forces in the Black Sea and developed the ability to attack targets further inside Russia. In August 2024, Russia renewed its attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure ahead of the winter. It is clear that the war is continuing to evolve, what were red lines are being crossed, and the enormous cost in lives and damage continues to mount. But where does the war stand overall now? More than 30 months into the conflict, is there any sense that one side is closer to winning, and how has Ukraine’s dramatic incursion into Russia’s Kursk region affected the war? This week, host Neil Melvin is joined by Professor Mark Galeotti, Senior Associate Fellow at RUSI and Director of Mayak Intelligence.

This episode of Global Security Briefing explores NATO's interest in China and the Indo-Pacific amid ongoing security challenges in Europe. At last month’s NATO summit in Washington, DC, China was identified as a ‘decisive enabler’ of Russia’s war against Ukraine. It was also noted that China ‘continues to pose systemic challenges to Euro-Atlantic security’. Many argue that the principal need is for NATO to concentrate on Europe. This is not just because of the Russo-Ukrainian war, but also because the US is focusing on China as its principal adversary, which will likely lead to Washington shifting more of the burden for European security to European allies. The construction of a ‘European pillar of NATO’ that can deter Russia is already a tall order. Is it realistic for Europeans to get involved in security issues on the other side of the world on top of that? And why are Asian countries interested in being linked more closely to NATO? This week, host Neil Melvin is joined by Dr Philip Shetler-Jones, RUSI Senior Research Fellow for Indo-Pacific Security, to answer these questions and more. This episode is brought to you as part of a research initiative at RUSI that looks at evolving transatlantic cooperation on China supported by the Carnegie Corporation of New York.

Concluding our series on how the UK’s new Labour government is approaching key foreign policy questions, we turn to the Middle East. It is in the Middle East that Labour’s ‘progressive realist’ foreign policy will be most tested – especially in the context of the Israel-Palestine conflict.  Signalling the importance of the Middle East to the new government, Foreign Secretary David Lammy visited Israel and the Palestinian Territories just over a week after Labour’s election victory. The UK’s distinct regional profile has faded in recent years as London has approached the Middle East in broad alignment with the US and focused on concluding trade deals rather than pursuing high-level diplomatic engagements. Will the UK under a Labour government seek to carve out a more distinct regional approach and play a more prominent role in the Middle East? Host Neil Melvin is joined by Dr Burcu Ozcelik, RUSI Senior Research Fellow for Middle East Security, and Dr Michael Stephens, RUSI Senior Associate Fellow, to answer this and more.

Current UK China policy is defined by the three main concepts of protecting national interests, aligning with allies and engaging with China on key matters such as climate change where possible. But how are these approaches coordinated and prioritised? The previous UK government was prepared to live with the ambiguity inherent in this approach, arguing that complexity of relations with China demanded a policy which takes into account the divergent and simultaneous trends in UK–China ties. But while in opposition, Foreign Secretary David Lammy articulated his party’s intention of conducting ‘a full audit across Whitehall of our relationship with China so that we can set the direction and a course’. In this episode, host Neil Melvin is joined by RUSI Senior Associate Fellows Isabel Hilton and Andrew Cainey to discuss how Labour will approach the balance between security, values, economic interests and environmental concerns and the difficult trade-offs inherent in dealing with China.