Capital Thesis Podcast

Tobias Carlisle, founder and Managing Director of Acquirers Funds, joins Capital Thesis for a conversation on value investing, market valuations, and preparing for market downturns.Tobias discusses his approach to deep value investing, the importance of valuation and portfolio diversification, and how he identifies opportunities in undervalued businesses.We explore S&P 500 concentration, artificial intelligence, historically elevated market valuations, and the outlook for long-term equity returns. Tobias also explains how investors can prepare for market downturns and where he currently sees opportunities in overlooked sectors.Finally, Tobias reflects on investor psychology, the lessons of Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett, and the importance of maintaining discipline through market cycles.FOLLOW CAPITAL THESISSpotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/033WreqkyC5riEkudo1KxT?si=c1623b2dbcc1464dInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/capitalthesispodcast/X: https://x.com/francobauerle0TOBIAS CARLISLEAcquirers Funds: https://acquirersfunds.comThe Acquirers Podcast: https://www.youtube.com/@TheAcquirersPodcastCrash Test Dummy: https://link.amazon/B04hl5L95?utm_source=chatgpt.comTIMESTAMPS00:00 – Opening Preview00:30 – Introduction01:27 – Tobias Carlisle's Approach to Deep Value Investing06:35 – Why Valuation Matters More Than Business Quality10:31 – Portfolio Construction and Diversification13:32 – How to Identify and Avoid Value Traps19:15 – S&P 500 Concentration and the Impact of AI25:46 – Preparing for the Next Market Downturn31:30 – Why Market Timing Doesn't Work33:28 – Where Tobias Carlisle Sees Opportunities Today38:27 – The Importance of Share Buybacks39:41 – Warren Buffett, Sun Tzu, and Investor Psychology46:17 – Tobias Carlisle's Advice for Long-Term Investors51:14 – Closing RemarksDISCLAIMERThe views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the participants and are provided solely for informational and educational purposes. Nothing discussed in this episode constitutes financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice, nor should it be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell any security, financial instrument, or investment product.Capital Thesis and its host are not registered investment advisers. Guests may hold positions in securities, assets, or investments discussed during the conversation. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results.Listeners should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Bill Nygren, Partner and Co-Chief Investment Officer of U.S. Equities at Harris Associates and longtime portfolio manager of the Oakmark Funds, joins Capital Thesis for a conversation on value investing, market concentration, capital allocation, and where to find opportunities in today's markets.In this conversation, Bill reflects on his four decades at Harris Associates, the evolution of value investing, and his approach to identifying undervalued businesses. He explains how intangible assets have transformed traditional valuation methods, why management incentives and capital allocation matter, and the importance of taking a long-term, business-owner perspective when investing.We explore the growing concentration of the S&P 500, the risks associated with passive investing, and the implications of the artificial intelligence investment boom. Bill discusses why he is avoiding many AI infrastructure stocks, the uncertainty surrounding the sustainability of their earnings, and the opportunities emerging in overlooked companies trading at significant discounts to the broader market.Finally, Bill shares insights into the investment decision-making process at Harris Associates, the importance of constructive disagreement, and his advice for investors seeking to achieve long-term success through patience, discipline, and independent thinking.FOLLOW CAPITAL THESISSpotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/033WreqkyC5riEkudo1KxT?si=c1623b2dbcc1464dInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/capitalthesispodcast/X: https://x.com/francobauerle0HARRIS ASSOCIATESHarris Associates: https://harrisassoc.comOakmark Funds: https://oakmark.comTIMESTAMPS00:00 – Introduction01:21 – Bill Nygren's Journey Into Value Investing10:01 – How Value Investing Has Evolved16:27 – The Challenge of Valuing Intangible Assets18:26 – Why Long-Term Investing Requires Patience20:07 – Evaluating Management and Capital Allocation26:14 – The Hidden Risks of S&P 500 Concentration30:41 – How Passive Investing Creates Opportunities33:00 – Inside Harris Associates' Investment Process38:06 – Where Bill Nygren Sees Opportunities Today39:07 – AI Infrastructure and the Risk of Unsustainable Earnings41:08 – Finding Value in Overlooked Stocks42:29 – Why Value Investing Offers Portfolio Diversification44:11 – Will Excess Corporate Profits Revert to the Mean?44:51 – Bill Nygren's Advice for Long-Term Investors47:09 – Closing RemarksDISCLAIMERThe views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the participants and are provided solely for informational and educational purposes. Nothing discussed in this episode constitutes financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice, nor should it be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell any security, financial instrument, or investment product.Capital Thesis and its host are not registered investment advisers. Guests may hold positions in securities, assets, or investments discussed during the conversation. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results.Listeners should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Louis-Vincent Gave, Co-Founder and CEO of Gavekal, joins Capital Thesis for a conversation on artificial intelligence, China's economic rise, global capital allocation, geopolitics, and the structural challenges facing Western economies.In this conversation, Louis examines the mounting fiscal pressures facing Western governments, rising borrowing costs, and the shifting balance of economic power between China and the West.We explore the massive capital expenditures surrounding artificial intelligence, the risk of historic capital misallocation, China's growing technological competitiveness, and the implications for corporate profitability and global markets.Finally, Louis discusses how technological advances are transforming modern warfare and geopolitics, where investors can find opportunities, and the challenges of navigating an increasingly fragmented global economy.FOLLOW CAPITAL THESISSpotify: [https://open.spotify.com/show/033WreqkyC5riEkudo1KxT](https://open.spotify.com/show/033WreqkyC5riEkudo1KxT)Instagram: [https://www.instagram.com/capitalthesispodcast/](https://www.instagram.com/capitalthesispodcast/)X: https://x.com/francobauerle0FOLLOW LOUISX: https://x.com/gave_vincentGavekal: https://web.gavekal.comLouis' Book Recommendations: https://research.gavekal.com/content/essential-reading/**DISCLAIMER**The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the participants and are provided solely for informational and educational purposes. Nothing discussed in this episode constitutes financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice, nor should it be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell any security, financial instrument, or investment product.Capital Thesis and its host are not registered investment advisers. Guests may hold positions in securities, assets, or investments discussed during the conversation. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results.Listeners should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Carson Block, Founder and CEO of Muddy Waters Capital, joins Capital Thesis for a conversation on activist short selling, corporate fraud, quantitative strategies, passive investing, and the risks facing financial markets.Carson is one of the most influential figures in activist short selling. Through Muddy Waters, he has built a reputation for investigating corporate fraud, accounting irregularities, and financial misconduct across the U.S., China, and Europe. Over time, the firm has expanded beyond activist short selling into quantitative momentum strategies, junior mining investments, and other approaches to capital allocation.In this conversation, Carson discusses his career, from his early experience in investment banking and China to the investigation of Orient Paper that led to the founding of Muddy Waters.We explore how activist short selling works, how investors can identify corporate misconduct, and why distinguishing outright fraud from aggressive financial engineering matters when evaluating companies and structuring short positions.Carson also explains how Muddy Waters has evolved beyond its original strategy, including its quantitative momentum approach, junior mining investments, and the challenges of traditional fundamental investing in markets increasingly shaped by passive flows.Beyond individual companies, we examine how passive investing affects price discovery, why market structure may be becoming increasingly fragile, and how AI-driven labor disruption could affect retirement contributions, equity flows, and broader market stability.Finally, Carson reflects on what he has learned throughout his career, the challenges of generating returns through active investing, and what he would tell his younger self about how financial markets really operate.FOLLOW CAPITAL THESISSpotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/033WreqkyC5riEkudo1KxTInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/capitalthesispodcast/X: https://x.com/francobauerle0CHAPTERS00:00 Intro00:48 Carson Block Introduction01:21 Early Career & Why He Moved to China05:35 The Reality of China's Stock Market07:36 Investment Banking & Corporate Fraud13:58 Why Carson Went to Law School15:48 Building a Business in China21:01 Discovering Orient Paper28:12 The Report That Launched Muddy Waters30:49 Why Corporate Fraud Persists32:21 Outright Fraud vs. Financial Engineering35:06 The Challenges of Activist Short Selling39:49 Why Muddy Waters Expanded Beyond Short Selling43:29 Quantitative Momentum Strategies44:48 Passive Investing & Price Discovery47:29 Junior Mining Investments48:55 Lessons From Investing in Vietnam50:00 Why Fundamental Investing Has Changed50:55 AI, Job Displacement & Passive Flows53:06 What Could Trigger a Market Sell-Off?53:53 Carson's Biggest Lesson From Investing55:42 Closing—Capital Thesis features conversations with leading investors, economists, and capital allocators on markets, investing, and the forces shaping the global economy.Hosted by Franco Bauerle.DISCLAIMERThe views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the participants and are provided solely for informational and educational purposes. Nothing discussed in this episode constitutes financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice, nor should it be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell any security, financial instrument, or investment product.Capital Thesis and its host are not registered investment advisers. Guests may hold positions in securities, assets, or investments discussed during the conversation. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results.Listeners should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Paul Kedrosky, Partner at SK Ventures and MIT Fellow, joins Capital Thesis for a conversation on the AI investment boom, data centers, debt, the U.S.–China race, and what could ultimately break the current cycle.Paul is a longtime technology investor and entrepreneur, a Partner at SK Ventures, an MIT Fellow, and co-host of The Dick and Paul Show. His work focuses on the intersection of technology, capital markets, infrastructure, and economic systems.In this conversation, Paul explains why he believes the current AI cycle is unusually fragile, sitting at the intersection of technology, real estate, credit, and government policy.We discuss the massive buildout of AI data centers, rapidly depreciating computing infrastructure, falling token prices, rising debt obligations, and whether demand can grow fast enough to justify the capital being deployed.Paul also examines model commoditization, refinancing risk, and where value may ultimately accrue across the AI ecosystem.Beyond infrastructure, we explore the U.S.–China AI race, national security, and why a technology can be transformative without necessarily being a good investment.Finally, Paul discusses what could break first, where investors may find opportunities, and what investors should watch as the cycle develops.FOLLOW PAUL KEDROSKY:The Dick and Paul Show: http://www.youtube.com/@UC6mtvBoze8zQDxP3o-Ne7yA Paul Kedrosky: https://paulkedrosky.comFOLLOW CAPITAL THESISSpotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/033WreqkyC5riEkudo1KxTInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/capitalthesispodcast/X: https://x.com/francobauerle0CHAPTERS00:00 Intro01:00 Paul Kedrosky Introduction01:28 The Four Forces Behind the AI Bubble07:23 What Breaks First?10:00 Cracks in Data Center Debt & Treasuries12:25 Falling Token Prices, Debt & Refinancing15:06 China, Token Commoditization & Pricing Pressure16:17 Transformative Technology ≠ Good Investment17:23 Why AI Infrastructure Depreciates Differently21:03 The U.S.–China AI Race25:13 AI Risk & What Could Force the Race to Slow29:25 Anthropic, OpenAI & the IPO Capital Crunch34:17 Why Investors Ignore the Risks36:03 Where Paul Sees Investment Opportunities40:15 Which Hyperscalers Could Benefit From AI?43:22 Where to Follow Paul44:05 Closing—Capital Thesis features conversations with leading investors, economists, and capital allocators on markets, investing, and the forces shaping the global economy.Hosted by Franco Bauerle.DISCLAIMERThe views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the participants and are provided solely for informational and educational purposes. Nothing discussed in this episode constitutes financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice, nor should it be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell any security, financial instrument, or investment product.Capital Thesis and its host are not registered investment advisers. Guests may hold positions in securities, assets, or investments discussed during the conversation. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results.Listeners should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.

David Woo joins Capital Thesis for a wide-ranging conversation on global markets, artificial intelligence, monetary policy, and geopolitics.David is a Columbia PhD economist and former Bank of America Merrill Lynch strategist, where he led research across global interest rates, foreign exchange, emerging markets, fixed income strategy, and economics.In this episode, David explains why he believes the surge in AI-related capital spending and debt issuance is playing a major role in pushing long-term bond yields higher. He discusses the Federal Reserve’s reaction function, the divergence between core CPI and core PCE, tight credit spreads, and what could happen to the U.S. economy if the AI investment boom begins to unwind.We then turn to the U.S.-China AI race. David argues that Chinese AI models have closed the technological gap with the United States much faster than expected and explains why that could have major implications for U.S. technology valuations, AI profitability, trade policy, and the broader economy.The conversation also moves into geopolitics, including Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, Russia and Ukraine, Taiwan, and how David is thinking about hedging major tail risks across markets.CHAPTERS00:00 Intro01:00 David Woo Introduction01:36 What Is the Bond Market Telling Us?06:55 AI CapEx, Debt Issuance & Higher Yields10:03 Kevin Warsh & the Fed Reaction Function13:10 Why Core CPI and Core PCE Are Diverging18:12 Credit Spreads, Recession Risk & Market Complacency21:56 China’s AI Challenge to the U.S.25:37 Is the U.S. Losing the AI Race?26:10 Could the U.S. Ban Chinese AI Models?31:20 Gold, Oil, Options & Hedging Tail Risks32:55 Iran, Oil & the Strait of Hormuz40:30 Taiwan, Russia & Ukraine44:11 David Woo’s Advice for InvestorsCapital Thesis features conversations with leading investors, economists, strategists, and capital allocators on markets, macroeconomics, investing, and global affairs.Subscribe for future episodes.DISCLAIMERThe views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the participants and are provided solely for informational and educational purposes. Nothing discussed in this episode constitutes financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice, nor should it be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell any security, financial instrument, or investment product.Capital Thesis and its host are not registered investment advisers. Guests may hold positions in securities, assets, or investments discussed during the conversation. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results.Listeners should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Peter Berezin, Chief Economist at BCA Research, joins Capital Thesis for a wide-ranging conversation on the risks facing the AI cycle, the outlook for global equity markets, interest rates, commodities, and the global economy.Before joining BCA Research, Peter was a Senior Economist at Goldman Sachs and worked at the International Monetary Fund.In this conversation, Peter explains why record-high corporate profit margins could come under pressure as bottlenecks in the AI infrastructure buildout begin to ease. He breaks down the economics behind the enormous capital expenditures being committed to AI, including his estimate that the broader AI ecosystem could ultimately need to generate roughly $10 trillion in annual revenue to justify current levels of investment.We also discuss whether falling token prices and greater AI adoption can generate enough demand to offset declining prices, whether AI is producing the productivity gains markets expect, and which areas of the market could benefit even if the current AI trade becomes overextended.Beyond AI, Peter shares his perspective on Federal Reserve policy under Kevin Warsh, the implications of greater uncertainty around the Fed’s reaction function, oil prices and inflation, Japan and the yen, U.S. Treasury yields, private credit, Europe’s structural challenges, the outlook for U.S. markets, and why inflation-protected Treasuries are beginning to look increasingly attractive.Finally, Peter discusses one of the recurring mistakes investors make during market booms: believing they will be able to recognize the top and exit before everyone else.CHAPTERS00:00 Intro01:01 Peter Berezin Introduction01:24 Why the Long-Term Outlook for Equities Could Be Unfavorable04:03 When the AI Supply Bottlenecks Begin to Ease06:52 Falling Token Prices, Demand Elasticity & Jevons Paradox08:38 The $10 Trillion AI Revenue Problem11:06 Is AI Actually Raising Productivity?13:22 Where Peter Sees Value: Healthcare & Metals15:21 Gold, Silver & Scarcity16:19 Kevin Warsh, Fed Guidance & the Term Premium18:49 Will the Fed Raise Rates?19:55 Iran, Oil Prices & Inflation21:35 Japan, the Yen & U.S. Treasuries23:21 How Higher Yields Could Pressure Stocks24:45 Why Investors Never Get Out in Time27:33 Stress in Private Credit29:26 What Would Make Peter Bullish on AI?32:25 The Long-Term Outlook for Europe34:20 U.S. Politics, Taxes & Tech Regulation37:05 Why TIPS Are Becoming Attractive38:36 Peter’s Advice to Young Investors39:27 Closing—Capital Thesis features conversations with leading investors, economists, and capital allocators on markets, investing, and the forces shaping the global economy.Hosted by Franco Bauerle.DISCLAIMERThe views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the participants and are provided solely for informational and educational purposes. Nothing discussed in this episode constitutes financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice, nor should it be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell any security, financial instrument, or investment product.Capital Thesis and its host are not registered investment advisers. Guests may hold positions in securities, assets, or investments discussed during the conversation. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results.Listeners should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Former Jane Street quantitative trader and researcher Agustin Lebron joins Capital Thesis for a conversation on quantitative trading, artificial intelligence, market making, and how traders find edge in increasingly competitive markets.Agustin Lebron spent more than six years at Jane Street, where he worked as a quantitative trader and researcher across equities, futures, commodities, and options. He is also the author of *The Laws of Trading*, a book exploring decision-making, risk, and uncertainty through the lens of markets and trading. Today, Agustin is a Senior Research Scientist at EquiLibre Technologies, where he works at the intersection of artificial intelligence and financial markets, applying reinforcement learning to algorithmic trading.In this conversation, Agustin shares his journey into quantitative finance and what he learned during his years at Jane Street. We discuss how quantitative trading firms operate, how market makers manage risk, where trading edge comes from, and why technological and capital requirements have made it increasingly difficult for smaller firms to compete.We also explore the impact of artificial intelligence on trading and financial markets, whether AI could level the playing field or further strengthen the largest quantitative firms, and how increasingly automated and efficient markets are changing where edge can be found. Finally, Agustin discusses leverage, risk management, reinforcement learning in markets, the growing consolidation of quantitative trading firms, and the lessons from his career that shaped the way he thinks about markets and decision-making.00:00 Intro01:20 From Engineering to Jane Street03:21 Simulations vs. Real-World Trading05:50 AI, Infrastructure & Trading Consolidation08:34 Where Can Traders Still Find Edge?10:27 Leverage, Retail Trading & Risk Management13:42 AI and the Future of Market Efficiency16:04 Prediction Markets & the Gamblification of Trading18:35 Finding Edge in Gambling and Speculation19:26 Will AI Make Money Obsolete?22:33 Why AI’s Economic Impact May Take Decades25:02 Why Prop Firms Are Replacing Investment Banks27:20 The Laws of Trading & Lessons from Jane Street29:21 Poker, Engineering & Quantitative Trading32:49 Reinforcement Learning in Financial Markets34:46 Career Advice: Avoid the Status Game38:35 Passion, Quant Finance & Choosing the Right Career40:45 What Agustin Looks for in Candidates43:31 Closing Agustin Lebron’s book, *The Laws of Trading: A Trader’s Guide to Better Decision-Making for Everyone*:⁠https://www.amazon.com.⁠..Disclaimer: The content in this video is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. The views and opinions expressed by guests are their own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Capital Thesis Podcast. Nothing discussed should be considered a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or investment. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Capital Thesis Podcast and its guests are not liable for any losses or damages arising from the use of this content.

University of Pennsylvania PhD economist Marcos Buscaglia joins Capital Thesis for a conversation on interest rates, artificial intelligence, emerging markets, and Latin America's economic future.Marcos Buscaglia is the former Head of Latin America Economics at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, where he analyzed economies, markets, and policy across the region for global investors. He later founded Alberdi Partners, an economic and financial consulting firm focused on Latin America.In this conversation, Marcos shares his journey from earning a PhD in Economics at the University of Pennsylvania to becoming a leading economist covering emerging markets on Wall Street. We discuss his experience at Bank of America and Citigroup, how global investors think about Latin America, the role of interest rates and central banks, and the forces shaping emerging markets today.We also explore the impact of artificial intelligence on productivity, economic growth, and financial markets.Finally, Marcos discusses Argentina’s economic outlook, the reforms underway, the challenges that remain, and what will ultimately determine whether the country can achieve sustained economic growth and regain the confidence of global investors.00:00 Introduction00:38 From Argentina to a PhD at UPenn04:09 Breaking Into Wall Street: Goldman Sachs, Citi & Bank of America12:53 Why Interest Rates May Stay Higher for Longer17:59 The Fed, Kevin Warsh & the Future of Monetary Policy22:00 AI, Market Valuations & the Risk of a Bubble27:03 Are Emerging Markets Becoming More Attractive?30:51 Argentina’s Once-in-a-Generation Opportunity36:03 Investing in Latin America39:13 Beyond ESG: Markets, Democracy & Investing45:07 Are Investors Unknowingly Funding Autocracies?46:29 Closing ThoughtsDisclaimer: The content in this video is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. The views and opinions expressed by guests are their own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Capital Thesis Podcast. Nothing discussed should be considered a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or investment. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Capital Thesis Podcast and its guests are not liable for any losses or damages arising from the use of this content.

Harvard PhD economist Alberto Ades joins Capital Thesis for a conversation on global markets, artificial intelligence, Wall Street, and Argentina's economic future.Alberto Ades is the former Co-Head of Global Macro and Markets Research at Goldman Sachs, where he helped shape the firm's views on the global economy, financial markets, and investment strategy. He later became Managing Director at NWI Management LP, a multi-billion-dollar hedge fund.In this conversation, Alberto shares his journey from earning a PhD in Economics at Harvard University to becoming one of the most respected voices in global macroeconomics. We discuss his experience at Goldman Sachs, the evolution of financial markets, the role of central banks, and what investors should be watching in today's rapidly changing environment.We also explore the transformative impact of artificial intelligence, its implications for productivity, business, and capital allocation, and how technological change may reshape the global economy over the coming decade.Finally, Alberto discusses Argentina's economic outlook, his relationship with President Javier Milei, and the reforms that could determine the country's future trajectory.Disclaimer: The content in this video is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. The views and opinions expressed by guests are their own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Capital Thesis Podcast. Nothing discussed should be considered a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or investment. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.Capital Thesis Podcast and its guests are not liable for any losses or damages arising from the use of this content.