The Macro Memo - global trends briefing for boards & directors: COP28 / where next for sustainability? US, Europe & business in China; interest rate predictions for US, UK & Europe

The EU faces little choice but to act on recommendations from a high level report that it needs to invest €750m to €800m a year to head off economic “decline” in the trading bloc, according to a leading economist.George Lagarias, the chief economist at professional services firm Forvis Mazars, says there will be difficulties negotiating the investment funds as a “common” pot of borrowing, particularly against claims that it could threaten the national sovereignty of EU member states. But, Lagarias warns, European leaders have no choice, despite the downside risks.“Will Europe get there? As an economist, I don’t think it has any other choice. Eventually, that’s where things lead us,” Lagarias said.Lagarias makes his comments in the latest episode of The Macro Memo, a Board Agenda podcast exploring global economic developments.The podcast also reflected on the coming budget—the UK’s first under the new Labour government—due to take place on 30 October.Lagarias noted that the chancellor Rachel Reeves would need one eye on “extremely jittery bond markets” which “definitely raises the level of difficulty”.The Reeves budget faces having to address budget black holes, sluggish growth and the need to repair public services.Tune in to the latest episode of The Macro Memo podcast for analysis and insight about the impact of upcoming events on business and the economy, in partnership with Forvis Mazars.

 How will the result of the US election outcome affect geo politics? Is the Fed on the brink of its first rate cut? How has it got there? What implications does it have for the US economy? What are the implications for the global economy? What will the impact be on trade? Is Keir Starmer building bridges to the EU and can he really soothe trade relations? Is it just confidence building or are there hard agreement to be reached? All this and more in this episode of Board Agenda's podcast 'The Macro Memo' in association with Forvis Mazars. 

This episode of the Macro Memo podcast explores the impact of elections on business and economics, focusing on the European elections, the French election, and the upcoming UK general election. Business leaders expect a “volatile” time as they manage the fall out from high inflation during a time of political uncertainty as elections play out in the UK, the US and in Europe. The warning came from Mark Kennedy, a partner at Forvis Mazars, on Board Agenda’s Macro Memo podcast.He was reflecting on the way business adapted to high interest rates and inflation and how those lessons will inform their approach now as rates remain high. "Business leaders are very rational. They've done the analysis and said, 'This is going to be volatile for a while."France is about to stage National Assembly elections and the US will go through presidential elections in November. European election have just seen shift to the right. The UK goes to the polls on 4 July with pollsters expecting a win for the Labour Party. George Lagarias, chief economist with Forvis Mazars, said what investors would really need to see is resolution of the trade frictions cause by Brexit and a more predictable business environment. Lagarias said “I think Britain’s strength is boredom. No offence because boring means predictable. Boring means legal systems where laws and regulations are not changed too often. That is much needed by business.”Lagarias also said a shift to the right in Europe could cause issues for trade. “The more we stray from the centre, the more we stray from mainstream politics, the more problems get out of hand".Tune in to the latest episode of 'The Macro Memo' podcast for analysis and insight about the impact of upcoming elections on business and the economy. 

A great wave of regulation is washing across business: capital rules for banks, cyber security and sustainability reporting mean corporate leaders appear to be in a new age of oversight. What’s driving this rule-making overdrive and how should business respond?Mark Kennedy and George Lagarias of Mazars, and Gavin Hinks of Board Agenda—also ask why London is struggling as a centre for IPOs and, with the Paris Olympics just around the corner, we ask whether showpiece events can really boost finance and economics?Those are some the big issues under discussion in this month’s Macro Memo podcast as it explores the international business landscape.All this and much more in Board Agenda’s podcast series, The Macros Memo, the global trends briefing for boards and directors. You can access the podcast via Apple, Spotify and wherever you get your podcasts. Don’t forget to hit subscribe.

The global economic landscape appears to be going through a form of fragmentation. There are growing tensions between the US and China over “dumping” of industrial products; the German economy is in “troubled waters”; France has revised down its growth; and the UK has sunk into recession (though could emerge quickly). Yet the largest developing world economies continue to do grow at a clip. What’s driving the differential performance? And how should business respond?These are among the big questions tackled in this month’s The Macro Memo podcast, as it considers an evolving economic environment.The team—Mark Kennedy and George Lagarias of Mazars, and Gavin Hinks of Board Agenda—also consider the maturing, or more realistic, view of artificial intelligence and its prospects, and examine what European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen (pictured) could do to improve EU competitiveness.

The Macro Memo podcast looks ahead at prospects for 2024. Some observers think the inflation crisis is close to resolution. But is it? And what are the implications for business and, most importantly, interest rates.  Those are some of the big questions tackled by The team—Mark Kennedy and George Lagarias of Mazars, and Gavin Hinks of Board Agenda, who also look at the risk of trade wars and whether the EU’s concern with Chinese electric cars reflects bigger issues.Lastly, this episode looks at labour markets and how companies will cope with a global shortage of skills, a big theme of the World Economic Forum’s meeting this year in Davos.

COP 28 is underway in Dubai but what responsibility do business leaders have for beating climate change? How will trade benefit from from US and European efforts to improve relations with China? And can companies in the EU, and elsewhere, expect an interest rate cut for Christmas? Mark Kennedy, partner and member of Mazar’s group executive board, alongside George Lagarias, Mazars’ chief economist, offer their thoughts on global trends to Board Agenda’s Gavin Hinks in this edition of Macro Memo.

 What does Jeremy Hunt’s Autumn Statement hold for UK business and what will it do for the economy? How is global trade affected by conflict and geopolitical uncertainty? And can companies play a role in making sure artificial intelligence is safe, or is the world heading for a Terminator-style melt down? Mark Kennedy, partner and member of Mazars’ group executive board, alongside George Lagarias, Mazars’ chief economist, offer their analysis of global trends to Board Agenda’s Gavin Hinks in this episode of Macro Memo.