Arvind Krishna & Nikesh Arora: Quantum Threat, Open vs Frontier AI, AI Cyber Warfare & SaaS Collapse

(0:00) Arvind Krishna & Nikesh Arora talk about Quantum Computing's Threat to Encryption (9:07) Open Weight vs. Frontier AI Models (18:07) AI and Cyber Warfare (21:14) AI Regulation and the Global AI Arms Race (30:32) Vertical Integration and Software Consolidation   Follow Nikesh: https://x.com/nikesharora   Follow Arvind: https://x.com/ArvindKrishna   Follow the besties:  https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg   Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod   Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod   Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@allin   Follow on LinkedIn:  https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod   Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg   Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect   #allin #tech #news  

(0:00) Dylan Field joins the show: Figma's origin story and mission (3:16) Adobe's $20B deal blocked: inside the antitrust fight (12:29) Is AI killing SaaS? Frontier Companies vs. Figma, the "SaaS apocalypse" (18:52) Creativity in the AI era: why taste and boldness win (36:02) Human agency, AI's promise, and what comes next   Thanks to our partners for making this possible! As wealth grows, complexity compounds. Between investments, tax strategy and estate planning, coordinating it all can feel like a full-time job. Creative Planning can help with the heavy lifting. Learn more at: https://CreativePlanning.com/AllIn With over nine million acres protected across all fifty states, The Conservation Fund secures the irreplaceable lands we love. Learn more at http://conservationfund.org    Follow Dylan: https://x.com/zoink   Follow the besties:  https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg   Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod   Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod   Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@allin   Follow on LinkedIn:  https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod   Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg   Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect   #allin #tech #news  

(0:00) Ben Horowitz fills in for Friedberg! (2:18) CoreWeave's debt selloff: did the AI bubble just pop? (31:14) AI's deflationary impact: decompiled software (45:44) Anthropic's investor day gets mixed reactions (1:03:45) Psyop Corner: Anthropic warns about self-replicating models on IoT devices (1:22:19) Understanding Bill Gates the Doomer Follow Ben: https://x.com/bhorowitz Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@allin Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://x.com/chamath/status/2110128893680378299 https://www.google.com/finance/quote/CRWV:NASDAQ https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/article/yikes-coreweave-stock-tanks-on-bond-yield-woes-ceo-blames-market-acting-irrationally-203838274.html https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/10/14/coreweave-falls-10-as-bond-yield-touches-15-and-elon-musk-says-yikes-nebius-drops-6-oracle-slips https://polymarket.com/event/coreweave-announces-bankruptcy-by https://x.com/FearedBuck/status/2109443893955567694 https://polymarket.com/event/ipos-before-2027 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-14/anthropic-revenue-jumps-to-16-8-billion-in-quarter-before-ipo https://www.anthropic.com/research/self-replicating-ai https://www.anthropic.com/news/detecting-and-preventing-distillation-attacks https://x.com/DavidSacks/status/2109849209742450696 https://www.anthropic.com/research/distillation-defenses https://x.com/brian_armstrong/status/2109412046244913643

(0:00) Billy Evans joins Friedberg (3:38) How they met, Elizabeth the person vs the headlines, indictment (11:02) Life on trial, having a child, where she went wrong in fundraising (19:28) Understanding the verdict, sentencing, and the mistake of staying silent (26:09) Elizabeth calls from prison, her life in jail (31:34) Why they did the documentary with Nathan Fielder (35:47) The road home, restitution math, why his new company is not Theranos 2.0 Thanks to our partners for making this possible! IREN is a vertically integrated AI Cloud platform, delivering data centers, compute and software for AI training and inference. https://iren.com/ Oracle connects the data, applications, and infrastructure that turn AI into business outcomes—with the flexibility, choice, and control to optimize as AI evolves. http://oracle.com/ai EY helps tech innovators scale from startup to exit to megacap. You build the future. We'll handle the rest. http://www.ey.com Meta believes the future is for everyone. We're focused on giving every person the tools to reach their full potential and making sure the benefits of technology are distributed to all. http://www.meta.com Keel Infrastructure owns the power, land, and connectivity that HPC and AI run on - backed by secured energy assets and established grid interconnections across North America. https://keelinfra.com/ Airwallex - Agentic Global Business Accounts. Open local accounts in 70+ countries to accept payments, earn yield, pay globally, and manage spend. http://airwallex.com PayPal has been revolutionizing commerce globally for more than 25 years. Creating innovative experiences that make moving money, selling, and shopping simple, personalized, and secure, PayPal empowers consumers and businesses in approximately 200 markets to join and thrive in the global economy. For more information, visit https://www.paypal.com Google for Startups connects founders with the right people, products, and best practices to help startups build faster and go further. https://startup.google.com/ Explore ideas, industries, and technologies worth understanding with Chamath every week on Learn with Me: https://research.socialcapital.com/allin Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@allin Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg

(0:00) Martin Shkreli joins the Besties! (0:55) Why quantum computing is a one-trick business and why he's betting against it (7:42) The drugs big pharma sells too cheap and his journey from hedge fund trader to pharma (11:37) AI, drug discovery, and who actually wins (21:32) Brilliance and rule-breaking, the gifted-kid trap & what prison taught him   Thanks to our partners for making this possible!   IREN is a vertically integrated AI Cloud platform, delivering data centers, compute and software for AI training and inference. https://iren.com/   Oracle connects the data, applications, and infrastructure that turn AI into business outcomes—with the flexibility, choice, and control to optimize as AI evolves. http://oracle.com/ai EY helps tech innovators scale from startup to exit to megacap. You build the future. We'll handle the rest. http://www.ey.com   Meta believes the future is for everyone. We're focused on giving every person the tools to reach their full potential and making sure the benefits of technology are distributed to all. http://www.meta.com   Keel Infrastructure owns the power, land, and connectivity that HPC and AI run on - backed by secured energy assets and established grid interconnections across North America. https://keelinfra.com/   Airwallex - Agentic Global Business Accounts. Open local accounts in 70+ countries to accept payments, earn yield, pay globally, and manage spend. http://airwallex.com   PayPal has been revolutionizing commerce globally for more than 25 years. Creating innovative experiences that make moving money, selling, and shopping simple, personalized, and secure, PayPal empowers consumers and businesses in approximately 200 markets to join and thrive in the global economy. For more information, visit https://www.paypal.com   Google for Startups connects founders with the right people, products, and best practices to help startups build faster and go further. https://startup.google.com/   Explore ideas, industries, and technologies worth understanding with Chamath every week on Learn with Me: https://research.socialcapital.com/allin   Follow the besties:  https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg   Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod   Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod   Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@allin   Follow on LinkedIn:  https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod   Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg   #allin #tech #news

(0:00) Bestie intros! (2:53) Anthropic believes Claude might be conscious: a new religion? Lobbying the Pope, alignment risks, model welfare (38:28) OpenAI's math breakthroughs and community backlash (1:02:03) Riots in France, Friedberg's socialism metric, bond market (1:21:41) Grok Bot goes headless, OpenAI launches Dots, is IP worthless? Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@allin Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/29/us/anthropic-claude-morals-ai.html https://www.anthropic.com/constitution https://x.com/andrewcurran_/status/2108244808494154089 https://www.economist.com/the-world-in-brief/2026/10/03/388af69b-8327-40a3-af5a-13c0ede56800 https://www.lesswrong.com/users/eliezer_yudkowsky https://www.amazon.com/Anyone-Builds-Everyone-Dies-Superhuman/dp/0316595640 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roko%27s_basilisk https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/06/science/openai-math-problems.html https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/openai-unleashes-hundreds-more-math-results-upon-a-field-already-in-shock/ https://terrytao.wordpress.com/2026/10/07/ahm-statement-on-openais-october-6-release-of-mathematical-documents https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=10169 https://x.com/imjustnewatai/status/2107601711032373333 https://x.com/skdh/status/2107848423726555204 https://x.com/friedberg/status/2107856770609844491 https://www.dw.com/en/france-trade-unions-join-students-in-major-demonstration/a-79560273 https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/02/world/europe/france-schools-protests-unrest.html https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/08/business/france-bond-yields.html https://x.com/LucAuffret/status/2108217923101683737 https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election https://polymarket.com/event/another-fed-rate-hike-in-2026 https://x.com/nikitabier/status/2108262529571144176

(0:00) Bestie intros! (2:01) Trump's Super Intelligence Summit: Behind the scenes and how the accord was created and signed (17:57) Cybersecurity arms race, data center national security, America.gov, coordinated doomer messaging (45:22) Recent economic data: GDP, jobs, diesel, inflation, rates, manufacturing, poverty, and more (1:00:24) Midterm predictions, 2028 look ahead (1:09:28) Media coverage of attempted terrorist hijacking Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@allin Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://x.com/WhiteHouse/status/2105292669303791687 https://www.wsj.com/economy/the-ai-build-out-is-becoming-the-biggest-economic-bet-in-u-s-history-c60716dd https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-second-quarter-gdp-revised-higher-amid-robust-consumer-spending-2026-09-30 https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/data/gdpnow https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2026/payroll-employment-rose-162000-in-august-2026.htm https://www.wsj.com/opinion/u-s-economy-gdp-commerce-upward-revision-aee8692e https://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/chicago-pmi-surges-signals-robust-manufacturing-expansion-93CH4925362 https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-inflation-rises-less-than-expected-august-consumer-spending-surges-2026-09-30 https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/oct/01/crude-oil-exports-strait-of-hormuz-transport-gulf-region-diesel https://polymarket.com/predictions/midterms https://x.com/OliaOnX/status/2105333178814832963 https://x.com/NYTimesPR/status/2105328158379856153

(0:00) Jake Paul joins the Chamath! (6:41) Turning an audience into businesses, the boxing playbook & coming for the UFC (11:54) Attention as capital, investing without the celebrity label & why politics is next (20:46) Drew Taggart & Alex Pall join the Besties! (30:35) From artists to investors: picking deals, playing the sixth man & what fame buys (37:33) Advice for famous investors, whether fame helps or hurts & the non-obvious bets (46:10) Riding winners, getting cash back to investors & spotting bubble behavior   Thanks to our partners for making this possible! IREN is a vertically integrated AI Cloud platform, delivering data centers, compute and software for AI training and inference. https://iren.com/ Oracle connects the data, applications, and infrastructure that turn AI into business outcomes—with the flexibility, choice, and control to optimize as AI evolves. http://oracle.com/ai EY helps tech innovators scale from startup to exit to megacap. You build the future. We'll handle the rest. http://www.ey.com Meta believes the future is for everyone. We're focused on giving every person the tools to reach their full potential and making sure the benefits of technology are distributed to all. http://www.meta.com Keel Infrastructure owns the power, land, and connectivity that HPC and AI run on - backed by secured energy assets and established grid interconnections across North America. https://keelinfra.com/ Airwallex - Agentic Global Business Accounts. Open local accounts in 70+ countries to accept payments, earn yield, pay globally, and manage spend. http://airwallex.com PayPal has been revolutionizing commerce globally for more than 25 years. Creating innovative experiences that make moving money, selling, and shopping simple, personalized, and secure, PayPal empowers consumers and businesses in approximately 200 markets to join and thrive in the global economy. For more information, visit https://www.paypal.com Google for Startups connects founders with the right people, products, and best practices to help startups build faster and go further. https://startup.google.com/ Explore ideas, industries, and technologies worth understanding with Chamath every week on Learn with Me: https://research.socialcapital.com/allin   Follow the besties:  https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg   Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod   Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod   Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@allin   Follow on LinkedIn:  https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod   Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg   #allin #tech #news  

(0:00) Daniel Ek joins the Besties! (1:14) Starting Spotify: Beating piracy and betting his own money on the record labels (6:10) Neko Health: The Spotify playbook for healthcare, the $499 body scan, and why US healthcare waits until you're sick (36:04) AI: Tech's failure to sell the upside, open vs. closed models, and regulating compute (44:24) Back to Spotify: Podcasting's open standards and the Stardoll origin story Thanks to our partners for making this possible!   As wealth grows, complexity compounds. Between investments, tax strategy and estate planning, coordinating it all can feel like a full-time job. Creative Planning can help with the heavy lifting. https://ad.doubleclick.net/ddm/trackclk/N2598215.3565131ALLIN/B36182939.452362736;dc_trk_aid=646454825;dc_trk_cid=260464105;dc_lat=;dc_rdid=;tag_for_child_directed_treatment=;tfua=;ltd=;dc_tdv=1    Starting a business? Northwest Registered Agent gives you everything you need to build a complete Business Identity including free tools and built-in privacy. Get more at https://www.northwestregisteredagent.com/ALLINFREE    Follow the besties:  https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg   Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod   Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod   Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@allin   Follow on LinkedIn:  https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod   Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg   Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect   #allin #tech #news  

(0:00) Bestie Intros: Favorite All-In Summit moments (3:54) Reacting to AI chaos: Liability, competition, and rebranding frontier "labs" (20:03) Open Source performance and cost: What this means for frontier companies (29:22) Anthropic and OpenAI postpone IPOs: liquidity risk and open source pressure (53:11) Political reactions to "Pacing the Frontier": Bernie's AI ban, Trump, Bessent, Obama (1:07:58) Meta launches Muse, AI "alignment," Oracle's Force Majeure (1:27:13) Anthropic's bio research and "wet lab" in SF Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@allin Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://www.deepseek.com/en/news/deepseek-v4-1-flash https://x.com/XiaomiMiMo/status/2102138559952290106 https://x.com/0x0SojalSec/status/2101738277049131358 https://prismml.com https://x.com/SenSanders/status/2102827319123693689 https://x.com/yipitdata/status/2102781268974793023 https://fortune.com/2026/09/12/sam-altman-openai-ipo-delay-ill-advised-moment-safety-concerns/ https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/anthropic-shifts-planned-ipo-to-november-8874dffc https://polymarket.com/event/ipos-before-2027 https://www.theinformation.com/articles/anthropic-seeks-palantir-style-voting-control-seven-co-founders-ahead-ipo https://x.com/rauchg/status/2101186741042663579 https://www.anthropic.com/constitution https://www.wsj.com/economy/the-ai-build-out-is-becoming-the-biggest-economic-bet-in-u-s-history-c60716dd https://x.com/mustafasuleyman/status/2100223594534150428 https://freebeacon.com/america/suicidal-compassion-meet-the-anthropic-officials-who-think-ai-might-be-justified-in-going-rogue-against-the-humans-enslaving-it https://www.anthropic.com/news/claude-discovers-novel-enzyme-system