Did tariffs make a difference in Trump’s trade war?

This week on Sinica, I'm delighted to welcome Dá Wēi (达巍), one of China’s foremost scholars of China’s foreign relations and especially relations with the U.S. Da Wei is the director of the Center for International Security and Strategy (CISS) at Tsinghua University in Beijing, and is a professor in the department of International Relations at the School of Social Science at Tsinghua. Before September 2017, Professor Da served as the Director of the Institute of American Studies at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR), a leading think tank in Beijing. He was at CICIR for more than two decades and directed the Institute of American Studies from 2013 to 2017.We discuss the state of Chinese understanding of the United States: how China’s strategic class assesses the state of the relationship, what brought it to this point, and what the future might hold.2:52 – American attitudes toward the U.S.-China relationship5:32 – The focus of academic think tanks and strategic communities in the U.S. versus China 11:13 – The Chinese strategic community’s understanding of American domestic politics with respect to the upcoming U.S. presidential election  15:08 – The Chinese strategic community’s understanding of why and how the current state of relations developed, and why China changed its trajectory  23:12 – The Chinese strategic community’s perspectives on American policy: Do they see a difference between the parties?27:02 – Da Wei’s concept of “Sullivanism” 33:41 – The question of mutual misunderstanding 38:37 – The role and influence of China’s think tanks in the policymaking process43:29 – The idea of cognitive empathy — aka strageic empathy, or intellectual empathy — and how it could aid mutual understanding and the policymaking process52:30 – The Chinese perspective on Russia and the war in Ukraine 57:37 – The Chinese perspective on China’s other international relations and the global context of the U.S.-China relationship 1:04:19 The issue of Taiwan and the question of the “status quo” 1:13:52 The importance of building people-to-people ties 1:16:51 – Da Wei's personal anecdote about an experience that influenced his understanding the U.S.-China relationshipRecommendations:Da Wei:  Lust for Life by Irving Stone — a biography of Vincent van Gogh; Pablo Casals’s recording of Johann Sebastian Bach’s Cello Suites; the films Cinema Paradiso (1988) and Forrest Gump (1994).  Kaiser: The Sopranos (1999-2007) TV series and The Sopranos Family Cookbook: As Compiled by Artie Bucco, written by Allen Rucker with recipes by Michele Scicolone. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica, a discussion of Netflix's adaptation of Liu Cixin's The Three-Body Problem (or more accurately, Remembrance of Earth's Past). Joining me to chat about the big-budget show is Cindy Yu, host of The Spectator’s “Chinese Whispers” podcast, one of the very best China-focused podcasts; and Christopher T. Fan, who teaches English, Asian American Studies, and East Asian Studies at U.C. Irvine and is a co-founder of Hyphen magazine. Cindy and Chris both wrote reviews of the show and a bunch of other folks answered the call and contributed their thoughts as well. 6:46 – 3 Body Problem as Chinese IP and audience reception 14:44 – The pros and cons of a more faithful adaptation, comparisons with Tencent’s adaptation, [and the Netflix production (process) (? Or keep it separate, 20:17)]23:44 – How the show portrays its Chinese characters and China and audience responses38:14 – Allegorical interpretations and real-world (political?) connections 48:11 – What to look forward to in (possible?) future seasons 51:14 – Chenchen Zhang’s humanity/autocracy binary and the 工业党 gōngyè dǎng 57:02 A win for Chinese soft power? Recommendations:Cindy: The Overstory by Richard Powers Chris: Same Bed Different Dreams by Ed ParkKaiser: Kaiser: Run and Hide by Pankaj Mishra; other novels by Pankaj Mishra, including Age of Anger: A History of the Present and From the Ruins of Empire: The Revolt Against the West and the Remaking of Asia; and other novels by Richard Powers, including Galatea 2.2, Operation Wandering Soul, and The Gold Bug Variations See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica: I wandered the halls at the Association for Asian Studies Conference in Seattle and talked to 14 participants and asked them all the same question: What has become clear to you about our field recently? The fantastic diversity of areas of inquiry and of perspectives was really energizing. Hope you enjoy this as much as I did!02:25 Michael Davidson from UC San Diego on working towards climate change goals04:22 Timothy Cheek from University of British Columbia on the importance of continuing to study China despite political tensions 06:51 Chen Zifeng from LSE on Chinese propaganda that surrounds everyday life 11:08 Clyde Yicheng Wang (Wang Yicheng) from Washington and Lee University on Chinese propaganda and its spread into social media 16:57 Jeff Wasserstrom from UC Irvine on connections between events in China and the world18:26 Ian Johnson from CFR on researching China from afar and the importance of online databases 21:01 Daniel Leese from the University of Freiburg on the work of digitizing Chinese sources 24:06 Tyler Harlan from Loyola Marymount University on opportunities for cooperation in the environmental field 25:41 Abby Newman from the University of Chicago Center for East Asian Studies on the importance of spaces for conversation within the field27:55 Sophie Loy-Wilson from the University of Sydney on studying violence and war in Asia with more sympathy 33:45 Joe Dennis from the University of Wisconsin-Madison on the changes he has witnessed in Chinese studies at the university level 36:49 Ed Pulford from the University of Manchester on China’s differing perspective on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine 39:49 Emily Matson from Georgetown University on the importance of Marxist and Mao thought in analyzing modern Chinese history and World War II42:14 Jan Berris from the National Committee on United States-China Relations on redirecting the U.S. government’s focus Recommendation: The musical, poetic, and comedic work of Elle Cordova (formerly Reina Del Cid), on TikTok, YouTube, and Facebook; and the Led Zeppelin tribute band "Presence," fronted by singer Tamar Boursalian. (Alas, the band, which is new, has no online presence. See them if you're in Seattle!)See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica, I speak with veteran China analysts Thomas Fingar and David M. Lampton — Mike Lampton — about a paper they published in the Winter 2024 edition of the Washington Quarterly. It's an excellent overview of how and why the bilateral relationship took such a bad turn roughly 15 years ago, citing mistakes both sides made and the reasons why China shifted around that time from one of its two basic behavioral modes — more open, tolerant, and simpatico in its foreign policy — to the other mode, which is both more internally repressive and externally assertive.Thomas Fingar is Shorenstein APARC Fellow in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University. He was Assistant Secretary of State for Intelligence and Research. He served as the first deputy director of national intelligence for analysis and as chairman of the National Intelligence Council — and he’s the author of many books, including most recently From Mandate to Blueprint: Lessons from Intelligence Reform.Mike Lampton is Professor Emeritus and former Hyman Professor and Director of SAIS-China and China Studies at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, and Senior Research Fellow at the Foreign Policy Institute. Mike was also formerly President of the National Committee on United States-China Relations.05:04 – The problem with the use of the term "autocracy" to describe China's system09:18 – Analysis of the motivation behind China's actions, questioning the assumption that all decisions are solely for perpetuating the Communist Party's power.10:25 – Rethinking Xi Jinping's personal influence over China's policy decisions: the checks on his power within the Chinese political system.15:58 – Critique of deterministic theories in political science regarding state behavior, particularly concerning China's foreign policy and domestic policy actions.19:13 – The importance of avoiding oversimplified and deterministic explanations for Chinese behavior on the global stage.23:43 – Discussion on the perception of China as an unstoppable juggernaut and the consequences of such a view for international relations and domestic policies in the U.S.24:41 – Analysis of the notion that China seeks to recreate an imperial tribute system in its foreign relations and regional strategy.28:09 – Introduction of the concept of two strategic constellations that have historically guided China's policy focus: national/regime security and economic/social development.33:11 – Exploration of factors leading to China's shift from prioritizing economic and social development to focusing more on national and regime security.37:38 – Examination of the internal and external dynamics contributing to China's policy shifts and the impact of globalization on societal and political tensions.48:47 – Reflection on the post-9/11 period as a time of relatively smooth U.S.-China relations and speculation on the role of international crises in shaping bilateral dynamics.52:59 – Discussion on the challenges and opportunities for the U.S. and China to adjust their policies and rhetoric to manage tensions and avoid further exacerbating the bilateral relationship.Recommendations: Tom: The novels of Mick Herron (author of Slow Horses); the novels of Alan Furst, including Night Soldiers and The Polish Officer.Mike: Philip Taubman, In the Nation’s Service (a biography of George Schultz); and Liz Cheney, Oath and HonorKaiser: The Magician, by Colm Tóibín — an unconventional novelized biography of Thomas MannSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on the Sinica Podcast, a show taped in Salzburg, Austria, at the Salzburg Global Seminar with Kerry Brown of King's College, London, on the prolific author's latest book, China Incorporated: The Politics of a World Where China is Number One.05:22 – Chinese worldview and historical perceptions07:51 – The unease with China's rise10:42 – Chinese exceptionalism vs. Western universalism17:30 – Parallels between American domestic unease and perceptions of China22:27 – Discussion on China's competing belief system33:56 – China's raw form of capitalism40:36 – What the West wants from China46:10 – The internet as a reflection of Chinese power and limitations51:17 – China's syncretism and its impact today55:00 – The narrative of Chinese success and its PR challenges1:05:32 – Revising Western narratives on China's developmentA complete transcript of this podcast is available at sinica.substack.com. Join the community on Substack and get not only the transcript but lots of other writing and audio to boot!Recommendations: Kerry: Civilization and Capitalism by Fernand BraudelKaiser: Empire of Silver: A New Monetary History of China by Jin Xu; and re-reading Hilary Mantel's masterful Wolf Hall trilogy (Wolf Hall, Bring Up the Bodies, and The Mirror and the Light)See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Historian Rana Mitter joins Sinica this week in a show taped live in Salzburg, Austria at the Salzburg Global Seminar, in which he discusses efforts by Party ideologists to create a Confucian-Marxist synthesis that can serve as an enduring foundation for a modern Chinese worldview in the self-proclaimed “new era.”01:28 – Is China a revisionist power?02:16 – Right-sizing China's global ambitions09:27 — How China utilizes historical narratives to support political ends10:43 – Marxism and China's Historical Understanding17:07 – China's "New Era" and Party history28:38 – The Confucian-Marxist Synthesis 56:58 – China's ability to reinvent itself1:02:15 – What’s the next big question?A complete transcript is available at the Sinica Substack.Recommendations: Rana: Eliza Clark, Boy PartsKaiser: Anthony Kaldellis, Streams of Gold, Rivers of Blood: The Rise and Fall of Byzantium, 955 A.D. to the First Crusade See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica, the winners of the 2023 Schwarzman Capstone Showcase. Two individuals and one team were selected as the best research projects after review of their projects and presentation of their findings. Their work is first-rate — and if you don’t factor in the very young age of the Schwarzman Scholars in competition. You’ll meet Shawn Haq, who won for his work on U.S. and Chinese expert perspectives on Taiwan; Corbin Duncan, who looked at the impact of the One Child Policy on the economic and social circumstances of only children in China; and the duo of Kelly Wu and Manthan Shah, part of a larger team that studied decarbonization efforts in Shandong province in steel, aluminum, chemical, and cement production. All three of these research efforts yielded fascinating insights.2:15 – Introducing the Schwarzman Capstone Showcase: topics, judges, and process4:41 – Self-introductions from Shawn Haq, Corbin Duncan, Kelly Wu, and Manthan Shah15:07 – Shawn Haq: U.S.-China Expert Perspectives on Cross-Straits Relations29:09 – Corbin Duncan: Only Children and Contemporary China48:12 – Kelly Wu and Manthan Shah: Decarbonization of Shandong Province’s Materials SectorSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica, a special taping of an online event I moderated on February 22, just two days shy of the second anniversary of Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. The session was titled “The Ukrainian Factor in China’s Strategy,” and it was organized by the Ukrainian Association of Sinologists, and featured that organization’s chairperson, Vita Golod; Bartosz Kowalski, senior analyst at the Center for Asian Affairs at the University of Lodz; Lü Xiaoyu of Peking University’s School of International Studies; and Klaus Larres, distinguished professor of history and international affairs, at the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill. Please support Sinica by becoming a subscriber at sinica.substack.com. Please note that I have discontinued Patreon, and ask all supporters to help out over on Substack. 2:42 – Introducing the guests6:19 – Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba’s meeting with top Chinese diplomat Wang Yi12:19 – What do Ukraine and its allies want from China?16:59 – What inducements might Ukraine’s Western allies offer China?21:51 – How has China’s position changed over the course of the last two years?29:52 – The space for expression of pro-Ukraine voices in China32:08 – Ukrainian and Chinese popular opinion 36:44 – Does the diplomacy of sanctimony work on a realist power?48:00 – China’s 12-Point Position51:48 – Does Russian economic dependency on China translate into leverage?54:04 – The overlap between China’s 12 points and Zelenskyy’s 10 points57:42 – How reliable is America as a partner in this election year?1:08:53  – How will this war end? What compromises are the sides willing to make?1:21:32 – Lü Xiaoyu’s trip to Ukraine and his meeting with President ZelenskyyThere’s a complete transcript to this episode available at sinica.substack.com.Sorry, no recommendations this week, but here’s one from me: The new remake of James Clavell’s epic novel Shògun, which is out on Hulu and FX. It’s pretty mind-blowing!See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica I'm delighted to bring you a live conversation with writer Peter Hessler, recorded at Duke University's Nasher Auditorium in Durham, North Carolina on November 10, 2023. The event was sponsored by the Duke Middle East Studies Center and the Asian Pacific Studies Institute, and was titled "Modern Revolutions in Ancient Civilizations."Peter, known for both his trilogy of books written in China — Rivertown, Oracle Bones, and Country Driving — as well as for his reporting for The New Yorker, talks about how his years in China gave him perspective when living in Cairo and writing about Egypt during the Arab Spring. His book on Egypt, The Buried: An Archaeology of the Egyptian Revolution, was made richer for me by the comparisons and contrasts with China threading throughout.Special thanks to Griffin Orlando of the Middle East Study Center and Alex Nickley from the Asia Pacific Studies Institute, and Ralph Litzinger from Duke Anthropology.6:27 – What Peter’s China experience brought to his writing on China — and vice-versa9:45 – Contrasting the Chinese and Egyptian revolutions18:37 – Revolution in thinking in Egypt and China35:49 – Peter on his approach to the craft of reporting and writing51:47 – Peter’s work in China as a longitudinal cohort study — and what it reveals so far58:03 – A preview of Peter’s forthcoming book, Other RiversRecommendations:Peter: Gerald Durrell, My Family and Other Animals is one of the booksKaiser: Kenneth W. Harl’s book Empires of the Steppes: A History of the Nomadic Tribes Who Shaped Civilization.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Sinica is proud to present historian James Carter's column "This Week in China's History," one of the most popular offerings from the late great China Project. I'm delighted to be able to bring this back and to narrate it. You can expect a new column every other week, and we'll be publishing on Fridays.This week, Jay looks at the last Qing emperor, Puyi's, abdication in February 1912, marking the end not only of the Qing Empire but of imperial Chinese history. Please enjoy!The music on this episode is from the song "Between the Mountains and the Sea" (山海间) by my old band, Chunqiu. This song was written and performed by Yang Meng.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.