DHUnplugged #769: Sideline Ca$h

Cash on the sidelines.... (that thesis is coming back) ATH - Fed cut, AI earnings, buybacks... (Sentiment) Most hated stocks - more hate PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - AI - the promise and the theft - Need a new CTP stock! - Most hated stocks - more hate - Football Season !!!!!!!!! Markets - ATH - Fed cut, AI earnings, buybacks... (Sentiment) - NVDA under China's microscope - Cash on the sidelines.... (that reason coming back) - StubHub IPO coming (thieves, but make $ for company) Once again - House to put forth stopgap bill that would fund government through November 21; vote expected Friday CPI and Jobs - The consumer price index posted a seasonally adjusted 0.4% increase for the month, the biggest gain since January, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.9%. ---For the vital core reading that excludes food and energy, the August gain was 0.3%, putting the 12-month figure at 3.1%, both as forecast. Fed officials consider core to be a better gauge of long-run trends. The central bank’s inflation target is 2%. - The Labor Department reported a surprise increase in weekly unemployment compensation filings to a seasonally adjusted 263,000, the highest since October 2021. - The reports provide the final pieces of a complicated data puzzle that central bankers will review at their two-day policy meeting that concludes Sept. 17. Retail Sales - Can't count out the US Consumer - THEY CONSUME - Retail sales increase 0.6% in August, beating expectations - Core retail sales rise 0.7%; July gain unrevised at 0.5% - Higher prices account for some of the rise in sales, but consumers also showing resilience - Import prices increase 0.3% amid strong gains in capital, consumer goods Fed Day  - Odds are 100% for 0.25 cut and 3.9% for a 0.50% cut - Lots of talk about 3 cuts for 2025 (Sept, Oct, December) - Gold hitting new highs, silver up there (Schiff on TDI Podcast this week) - Cook not allowed to be fired Google - Welcome to the TRILLION dollar market cap club - Even with the concern over AI eating up search - stock is ATH after the recent court ruling -- Probably also due to free input for their LLMs - The owner of Rolling Stone, Billboard and Variety sued Google on Friday, alleging the technology giant's AI summaries use its journalism without consent and reduce traffic to its websites. - The lawsuit by Penske Media in federal court in Washington, D.C., marks the first time a major U.S. publisher has taken Alphabet-owned Google to court over the AI-generated summaries that now appear on top of its search results. - News organizations have for months said the new features, including Google's "AI Overviews," siphon traffic away from their sites, eroding advertising and subscription revenue. - Penske, a family-owned media conglomerate led by Jay Penske and whose content attracts 120 million online visitors a month, said Google only includes publishers' websites in its search results if it can also use their articles in AI summaries. - Without the leverage, Google would have to pay publishers for the right to republish their work or use it to train its AI systems, the company said in the lawsuit. I NVDA - China says Nvidia violated anti-monopoly law after preliminary probe - China’s market regulator on Monday said that Nvidia violated the country’s anti-monopoly law, according to a preliminary probe, adding that Beijing would continue its investigation into the U.S. chip giant. - Surely if USA allows access to the H20 chip that this will go away.... Tesla Shares - First, company is not doing well - as a company - but stock is performing

Football Team Valuations Sexy is back - Retail What winning the Powerball Jackpot means A little 1,000,000 revision... PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - Stagflation - as payrolls drop - People in glass houses ....Stupid Politics - We are still here - which means we did not win the Powerball Jackpot - They say it will never happen - Ban on stock ownership for Congress Markets - CRISPR Chocolates? - Tech - again the driver - Sexy is back - Retail - Take in stride - on 900k less workers - ORACLE!!!!!! Powerball Jackpot - $1.8 Billion - Two winners - Texas and Missouri - Each winning ticket holder can choose either an annuitized prize of $893.5 million or a lump sum payment of $410.3 million – both before taxes. - Additionally, two lucky tickets sold in Kansas and Texas won a $2 million prize and 18 tickets sold across 13 states won $1 million. - Back to just $20 million now... - The odds of winning were 1 in 292.2 million, according to the Multi-State Lottery Association, which oversees the game. Glass Houses - Pulte - Accuses Fed's Cook and with simple accusations Trump looking to Fire ... - Close relatives of the federal official who has accused a Federal Reserve governor of improperly claiming primary residence on two properties have declared the same status on two homes in two different states, public records show. - Mark and Julie Pulte, the father and stepmother of Bill Pulte, President Donald Trump’s appointee as director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, since 2020 have claimed so-called “homestead exemptions” for residences in wealthy neighborhoods in both Michigan and Florida, according to the records. The exemption is meant to give a discount to homeowners on taxes for properties they use as their primary residence. - Local tax officials in both states told Reuters that claiming more than one home as a primary residence isn’t generally allowed in their jurisdictions and could be punishable by fines or back taxes. - After Reuters contacted tax officials in Bloomfield Township, Michigan, to inquire about the dual claims, Darrin Kraatz, director of assessing, on Thursday said the township “as of today” would revoke the exemption on the Pultes’ residence there. Beat Your Ass - Seems at a recent dinner- Pulte got under Scott Bessent's skin and bessent was pissed - F You - I am going to beat your ass - punch you in the F'n mouth for bad talking me to president Trump - Class act these children Chocolate Editing - Candy maker Mars said Wednesday it has partnered with biotech company Pairwise to speed up the development of more resilient cocoa using CRISPR-based gene editing technology. - CRISPR technology is a gene-editing tool that makes changes to DNA and can be used in farming. - The goal is to create cacao plants that can better withstand disease, heat and other climate-related stresses that can put global chocolate supply at risk. ---- Public Service: The main difference between cocoa and cacao: cacao is minimally processed and remains largely raw and nutrient-dense, while cocoa is made from roasted cacao beans that have been processed at high temperatures. This heat and processing affect cacao's nutrient profile and flavor, making cacao powder more bitter and richer in nutrients, and cocoa powder milder and more suitable for baking. GOOGLE for the win - Google shares popped 8% on Wednesday last week as investors celebrated what they viewed as minimal consequences from a historic defeat last year in the landmark antitrust case. - Last year, Google was found to hold an illegal monopoly in its core market of internet search. - U.S.

Blame it on AI - new excuse: Flirty Chatbots NVDIA earnings the high point for a while? Announcing the WINNER of the CTP PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Interactive Brokers Warm-Up - Tariffs deemed illegal? - So much for rates coming down - Long bond up again - Announcing the WINNER of the CTP - Blame it on AI - new excuse.... Flirty Chatbots Markets - NVDIA earnings the high point for a while? - Good month - August is green - Sept starting out wobbly - AI News  - Valuations - TO THE MOON NVDA Earnings - From last Wednesday - STRONG: Nvidia reported better-than-expected earnings and revenue on Wednesday, and said sales growth this quarter will remain above 50% - Earnings per share: $1.05 adjusted vs. $1.01 estimated - Revenue: $46.74 billion vs. $46.06 billion estimated - Overall company revenue rose 56% in the quarter from $30.04 billion a year ago, Nvidia said. Year-over-year revenue growth has now exceeded 50% for nine straight quarters, dating back to mid-2023 -Stock opened Thursday at $180 - now trades near $168 --- Some concern over data-center revenue declining 1% from previous quarter due to $4B less in sales of H20 chips NEW CLEAR - The Duane Arnold nuclear plant northwest of Cedar Rapids, Iowa is pressing ahead with plans to restart operations by the end of the decade after shutting down for economic reasons in 2020 - NextEra Energy (NEE) - Duane Arnold would follow similar restarts planned for the Palisades nuclear plant in Michigan and Three Mile Island in Pennsylvania, which plan to resume operations later this year and in 2027 - Big Change on the economics is just 5 years! USA Travel - Who needs those pesky visitors anyway - Overseas travel to the U.S. fell 3.1% year-on-year in July to 19.2 million visitors, according to U.S. government data. It was the fifth month of decline this year, defying expectations that 2025 would see annual inbound visitors finally surpass the pre-pandemic level of 79.4 million. - New VISA INTEGRITY fees on incoming travelers from many countries - The extra charge raises the total visa cost to $442 for non-via waiver countries like Mexico, Argentina, India, Brazil and China - In China, arrivals have remained muted since the pandemic, with July numbers still 53% below 2019 levels. The visa fee also threatens travel from India, where visits are down 2.4% so far this year, driven by a near 18% drop in students. Tariffs Illegal? - A divided U.S. appeals court ruled on Friday that most of Donald Trump's tariffs are illegal, undercutting the Republican president's use of the levies as a key inter - Trump lamented the decision by what he called a "highly partisan" court, posting on Truth Social: "If these Tariffs ever went away, it would be a total disaster for the Country." national economic policy tool. - So, now it goes to the Supreme Court (non - partisan?) - Talk of the Bond Vigilantes making a move if the tariffs struck down because not much to pay the huge deficit and debt encumbered with new OBBBA   Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Speaking of Rates - Since the Powell hint of cuts - rates on the rise - -Longer-Term rates - Mortgage rates are the highest in months and the 10-Yr is at approx 4.30% -- Please note, the Fed controls short-term rates.... Some influence on mortgages due to Quantitative easing, but even if rates are dropped does not mean that longer-dated paper will see a drop in the rates DEE MINIMUM US - The de minimis exemption, which allowed shipments valued under $800 to enter the country duty-free, came to an end globally last Friday.

Jackson HOLY cow what a move.... SOE's get used to it - We are now China. Airline consolidation or murder? Bond yields - Long bond yields up. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - Excitement over a change in tone from Powell (Powell throws the towel?) - Crypto surges - then comes back down - SOE - Get used to that - Bond yields - Long bond up Markets - Hitting all-time highs - Airline consolidation or murder? - NVDA earnings - reports this week - Some crypto really moving Fed Firing - How do we feel about the firing of Fed's Cook? - Allegations, not confirmed - Could this be a play to actually fire Powell? --- Trump now says that this paves the way to him having a majority that soon will push rate lower (after firing Cook) Windless - Shutting down the alt-energy projects - Wind turbines ugly and no good - Shares in wind farm developer Orsted - The U.S. government last week ordered the company to halt construction of an almost completed project. - Late on Friday the U.S.? Bureau of Ocean Energy Management had issued a stop-work order for the Revolution Wind Project off of Rhode Island. According to Orsted, the project is 80% complete and 45 out of 65 wind turbines have been installed Pricing Power - News that Spotify will raise prices as it invests in new features and targets 1 billion users - said the price will rise to 11.99 euros ($14.05) from 10.99 euros in markets including South Asia, the Middle East, Africa, Europe, Latin America and the Asia-Pacific region. - Price increases combined with cost-cutting efforts in recent years helped Spotify achieve its first annual profit last year. Jackson Holy !! - Powell hinted that maybe there would be a change to his thinking - In his final address as Fed chair at the Jackson Hole, Wyoming, economic symposium, Powell hinted at a September interest rate cut but stopped short of committing, striking a careful balance between mounting job-market risks and lingering inflation worries. - In particular, the market was enthused by Mr. Powell's line noting that "with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance," which the market took as an open-mindedness to easing. - The probability of a 25-basis point rate cut at the September FOMC meeting now stands at 83.1%, up from 75.0% yesterday, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Jackson - HOLY 2 - Markets reacted strongly in favor of a rate cut - hope - DJIA up 800 - S&P and NASDAQ rallied - Small Caps up close to 4% - USD dove - Yields - slightly lower - Crypto - ETHER rallied hard - ATH ---- Give it a day and Ether and Bitcoin came back down to earth Misunderstanding - Cut rates so houses more affordable? - Long rates moved higher - NVDA - Earnings due Wednesday After the close - Nvidia makes up about 7.5% of the S&P 500. - Earnings Per Share (EPS) Estimates Zacks Consensus: $1.00 Kiplinger Forecast: $1.01, up 48.5% year-over-year MarketBeat Average: $0.97 (range: $0.92–$1.05) - Revenue Estimates Zacks Consensus: $46.14 billion Kiplinger Forecast: $46.0 billion, a 53.1% increase YoY MarketBeat Range: $44.1–$45.9 billion - Forward-Looking EPS FY 2026: $4.28 (Zacks), $4.12 (MarketBeat) FY 2027: $5.70 (Zacks) SOE - State Owned Enterprises - We had better get use to it - All the anger directed at China for this - as unfair practice - Now, US takes a piece of Intel (10% for $2B ?) - Wait - 10% is $10B value - is that right? Intel Math (MATH?) - The U.S. government acquired a 10% stake in Intel by converting $11.1 billion in previously issued grants and pledges into equity.

Bottom Fishing for bargains. Consolidation, Digestion - awaiting the next catalyst. Saudi SWF takes a hit. The Jackson Hole confab is around the corner. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - Labubus - Beanie Babies ? - US Debt - wretched - Good fishing this weekend - Chip Trackers Markets - Bottom Fishing - Consolidation, Digestion - waiting for the next catalyst -  Saudi SWF takes a hit - Validations - to the MOON - Casual Dining take a hit Weekend Fishing - Marlin, Roosterfish and Yellowfin Tuna - 2 bucket list items The CONFAB - August 21 to August 23 - Theme: Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy - Powell to speak Friday at 10am - Historically: ---- 1989: Alan Greenspan became the first Fed Chair to formally participate in the program, establishing a tradition of Fed leadership using the event to signal policy direction (Volker stopped by in 1982) --- 2010: Ben Bernanke used the symposium to signal QE2 --- 2014: Mario Draghi, ECB President, hinted at aggressive stimulus to combat Europe’s sluggish growth, influencing currency markets --- 2020: Jerome Powell announced the Fed’s new “average inflation targeting” framework, allowing inflation to run above 2% temporarily to support employment growth More Jackson Hole - Many are saying this is the be the defining moment in Powell's Career - Certainly the last one attending that he will be chair - Odds are that he will look to continue the Fed independence and data dependency talk US Debt - The federal government's gross national debt topped $37 trillion for the first time in history last week, and the U.S. has room to add trillions of dollars more to the debt following the enactment of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). - OBBBA included a $5 trillion debt limit increase to avert a potential stand-off over the borrowing limit ($41 trillion limit) - US Debt to GDP = 100% - Every American owes $111,045 (Assuming spread evenly) - 25 years ago it was $19,000 er person LabooooBooo - Labubus, the quirky monster plush dolls made by Pop Mart, have exploded into a global phenomenon, doubling as collectibles and fashion accessories for adults. - In the first half of 2025, Labubu-related products generated a staggering $418 million in global sales for Pop Mart, with nearly 40% of revenue last year coming from outside mainland China. The company says sales in the first six months of this year are on track to more than triple, fueled by what’s become a full-blown international craze. - The thrill of the hunt. Labubus are only available through online purchases and in-store pickups, if you can find one in stock. Adding to the scarcity factor is the blind-box packaging – you never know which character you’ll get. - Some collectors chase elusive "secret" editions, with odds as low as 1 in 72. Investing - A better Way? - Powerball jackpot grows to estimated $643 million after no one won Monday night's drawing - Next drawing - Wednesday night - The jackpot is a new high for 2025 - he highest Powerball jackpot ever was $2.04 billion, won on November 7, 2022 by a single ticket sold in California. - The winner, Edwin Castro, opted for the lump sum payout of $997.6 million Energy Needed - Google and Kairos Power will deploy an advanced nuclear reactor to help power the tech company’s data centers on the Tennessee Valley Authority grid. - The Hermes 2 reactor developed by Kairos will dispatch 50 megawatts of electricity, enough to power about 36,000 homes. - TVA will purchase the electricity from the reactor, making it the first utility in the U.S.

China Style Capitalism - CHINUS Capitalism Some Fed speakers talking 2 cuts now Fresh set of IPOs entering the market A NEW Closest to The Pin announcement PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - China Style Capitalism - CHINUS Capitalism - Some Fed speakers talking 2 cuts now - Fresh set of IPOs entering the market - A NEW Closest to The Pin - AND a couple of listener limericks Markets - New Highs and Crypto looks to breakout - Apple best week since 2020 - Alts coming to your 401k - Gold - no longer to be tariff'd - NVDA chips - not safe? Fed Speakers - Some talking 3 rate cuts... End of year? - CPI and PPI this week so we shall see -- Seems like kiss ass tactcs to keep job or get promoted New America Way of Business? - CHINUS - Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices have agreed to give the U.S. government a share of revenues from certain chips sold in China, the Financial Times reported, in an unprecedented arrangement with the White House. - In exchange for 15% of revenues from the chip sales, the two chipmakers will receive export licenses to sell Nvidia’s H20 and AMD’s MI308 chips in China, according to the FT. - The arrangement comes as President Donald Trump’s tariffs continue to reverberate through the global economy, underscoring the White House’s willingness to carve out exceptions as a bargaining tool. (Who is this bargaining with????) Perplexing - Perplexity offered to purchase Google's (GOOG) Chrome for $34.5 billion, according to WSJ - Google doesn’t break out Chrome-specific revenue, analysts estimate its indirect contribution to ad revenue is tens of billions annually. Losing Chrome would weaken Google’s ability to control defaults and gather behavioral data, which are critical for ad targeting - Analysts suggest Chrome could be worth $50 billion or more if Google were forced to sell, given its user base and strategic importance - IPOs - The U.S. IPO market has surged in 2025, with over 210 listings so far—up 84% from last year. Notable performers include: - Figma, Inc. – IPO at $33, now trading at $78.11 (+136.70%) - Ambiq Micro, Inc. – IPO at $24, now $39.47 (+64.46%) - inkhome Holdings Inc. – IPO at $4, now $7.50 (+87.50%) - Rich Sparkle Holdings Limited – IPO at $4, now $35.09 (+777.25%) - Masonglory Limited – IPO at $4, now $12.00 (+200.00%) - Firefly Aerospace Inc. – IPO at $45, now $50.17 (+11.49%) - HeartFlow, Inc. – IPO at $19, now $28.75 (+51.32%) JOBS Report FIX - BLS Commissioner nominee E.J. Antoni suggested that monthly jobs report could be paused to fix methodology, according to Fox Business interview - Many are worrying about the FIX - is it a fix or will it be fixed...? - More than 2,000 people work at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), including professional economists and survey takers who contribute to the production of the monthly jobs report - The Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has no direct role in collecting, processing, or altering the monthly jobs report data. Here's a breakdown of how the system is designed to prevent manipulation ---The commissioner does not see the jobs data until the Wednesday before its public release on Friday - But, let's discuss - how can the commissioner change the numbers? Intel - 96 hours of fun - Intel stock up as White House going to force TSM to buy into company - Intel stock down as White House recommends firing CEO - Intel Stock up after CEO meeting with Trump in White House Apple - Best week since July 2020 - Apple shares rose 13% this week, its largest weekly gain in more than five years, after CEO Tim Apple appeared with President Donald Trump in the White House on Wed...

Employment Report - Revisions Gone Wild But The Dip (Aka The Bend and Snap) Earnings Season - Plenty of CapX Boeing making moves  - unions may strike PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter INTERACTIVE BROKERS  Warm-Up - Fed - Standing Pat - Tariffs ON ( with some delays, pauses and delays - India taking Heat - OPEC at it Again Markets -Employment Report - Revisions Gone Wild - But The Dip (Aka The Bend and Snap) - Earnings Season - Plenty of CapX - Boeing making moves  - unions may strike The Bend and Snap - That is the markets - any little movement down - snaps right back up (Buy Dip with a Legally Blonde flair) - Monday saw a huge reversal after the VIX hit 21.50 and small caps were down as much as 3% after the July Employment report and lackluster earnings Jobs Report - 4.2% Unemployment Rate - Only added 73,000 in July - Revisions for May and June were larger than normal. - The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised down by 125,000, from +144,000 to +19,000, and the change for June was revised  down by 133,000, from +147,000 to +14,000. - With these revisions, employment in May and June  combined is 258,000 lower than previously reported. THEN..... - President Donald Trump on Friday fired Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, hours after the agency reported that job growth in the U.S. had slowed to a near-halt. - “We need accurate Jobs Numbers. I have directed my Team to fire this Biden Political Appointee, IMMEDIATELY,” Trump posted on Truth Social. GDP - Gross domestic product jumped 3% for the second quarter, better than the 2.3% estimate and reversing a 0.5% decline in the prior period. - Consumer spending rose 1.4% in the second quarter, better than the 0.5% in the prior period. - While exports declined 1.8% during the period, imports fell 30.3%, reversing a 37.9% surge in Q1. - HUGE Number - flurry after some Tariff uncertainty lifted in April OIL - OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to raise oil production by 547,000 barrels per day for September, the latest in a series of accelerated output hikes to regain market share, as concerns mount over potential supply disruptions linked to Russia. - The move marks a full and early reversal of OPEC+'s largest tranche of output cuts plus a separate increase in output for the United Arab Emirates amounting to about 2.5 million bpd, or about 2.4% of world demand. - In a statement following the meeting, OPEC+ cited a healthy economy and low stocks as reasons behind its decision. - Eight countries to hike September output by 547,000 bpd - Oil supported by US demands for India to stop buying Russian oil Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Earnings News Coinbase - Coinbase shares fell after gains in the cryptocurrency exchange’s subscription revenue failed to offset weaker trading volumes. - Revenue rose slightly to $1.5 billion from $1.45 billion in the same quarter last year, but fell short of analyst estimates. - Coinbase reported that retail trading volume, which is typically more profitable than institutional volume, grew 16% year-over-year to $43 billion, but missed the $48.05 billion expected by analysts survey Reddit - Revenue grew 78% year-over-year in the second quarter and was 17% above consensus estimates, the biggest beat in the company’s short history as a public company. - Reddit said third-quarter revenue will be in the range of $535 million to $545 million, ahead of Wall Street estimates of $473 million. - Adjusted earnings in the third quarter are projected to be in between $185 million to $195 million,

GDP, Earnings and FOMC meeting Cover Art - Best Ever - Not... New term - QUISHING I gotchooo and Say less PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter INTERACTIVE BROKERS  Warm-Up - Cover Art - Best Ever - Not... - New term - QUISHING - I gotchooo and Say less Markets - What a Week! - GDP, Earnings and FOMC meeting - MORE ATHs! - Earnings Season Update - Homes - Capital Gains? Cover Art - Can we take a close look at what was AI generated this week? - At least TWO glaring issues ... China - another delay/pause? - President Trump tells reporters on Air Force One that he could meet with Chinese President Xi by the end of the year (???) EU Deal  - Framework of the deal seems done - 15% across the board tariff on EU goods into the US (a couple of exceptions) - Prices for Olive Oil from your favorite region is going up - Some new benefits for US cars into Europe - - If this is all so good for say US car manufactures, why aren't Ford and GM stocks doing anything? Earnings this week of note: - Microsoft (MSFT): Expected to report on July 30, 2025 - Meta Platforms (META): Scheduled to report on July 30, 2025 - Amazon (AMZN): Scheduled to report on July 31, 2025 - Apple (AAPL): Scheduled to report on July 31, 2025 --- Those 4 companies are 20% of the S&P weighting Earnings Season Update - Overall, 34% of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported actual results for Q2 2025 to date. Of these companies, 80% have reported actual EPS above estimates, which is above the 5-year average of 78% and above the 10-year average of 75%. - If 80% is the final number for the quarter, it will mark the largest percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting a positive EPS surprise for a quarter since Q3 2023 (81%). - In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings that are 6.1% above estimates, which is below the 5-year average of 9.1% and below the 10-year average of 6.9%. Real Estate  - Existing home sales fell 2.7% in June but were unchanged from June 2024. - According to the latest report from the National Association of Realtors®, record-high home prices, elevated mortgage rates, and a moderate supply are discouraging some potential home buyers, particularly first-time home purchasers. - The median existing-home sale price in June was $435,300, up from the May price of $423,700, and higher than the June 2024 price of $426,900 - Inventory ticked up from a 4.6-month supply in May to 4.7 months in June - Sales of single-family existing homes dipped 3.0% last month. The median single-family existing home price was $441,500 in June, compared to $428,800 in May and $432,900 in June 2024. Quishing - QR codes used to trick people into visiting malicious websites or unknowingly share private information, a scam that has become known as “quishing.” - The increasing prevalence of QR code scams prompted a warning from the Federal Trade Commission earlier this year about unwanted or unexpected packages showing up with a QR code that when scanned “could take you to a phishing website that steals your personal information, like credit card numbers or usernames and passwords. It could also download malware onto your phone and give hackers access to your device.” - There is work being doen to develop a “smart” QR code called a SDMQR (Self-Authenticating Dual-Modulated QR) that has built-in security to prevent scams. But first, he needs buy-in from Google and Microsoft, the companies that build the cameras and control the camera infrastructure. Thoughts? - During a pivotal push by Ukraine to retake territory from Russia in late September 2022, Elon Musk gave an order that disrupted the counteroffensive and dented Kyiv’s trust ...

Back from Vacation - refreshed? Fun with Coldplay! A quick look at how indices and sectors are doing Sugar in the news.... The REAL running of the bulls - bad things happen PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter INTERACTIVE BROKERS  Warm-Up - Back from Vacation - refreshed? - Fun with Coldplay! - Sugar in the news.... - The REAL running of the bulls - bad things happen Markets - Earnings Season is here - about to get some big results this week - Some earnings to discuss - A quick look at how indices and sectors are doing - Markets react to Trump/Fed comments - YUGE deal with Japan Market Update Top to Bottom in - Fed - April (2 Months) Bottom to Recovery of Loss -  (2 months) Now overshot and climbing to new ATH DJIA up 4.8% SP500 Up 7.69% NASDAQ up 9% Bitcoin Up 24% Emerging Markets up 24% USD down 10% Gold up 24% Copper up 35% Small Caps up 0.95% Apple DOWN 14% YTD Sectors Staring off: Will the TARIFFS actually go into play on August 1st, 2025??? What to do? - Here we go again... - I heard Adam and Tina coming to Florida next week and I have not heard from them.... -- Now maybe it is nowhere near me - Florida is a big state... (Am I being too sensitive?) - If JCD came to FLA - I would think you would call me.... right? Lessons - Astronomer, the tech company that found itself launched into the public eye after its CEO Andy Byron was spotted on a Jumbotron video at a Coldplay concert last embracing an employee, announced that Byron has been placed on leave. - Astronomer’s cofounder and chief product officer Pete DeJoy is now serving as interim CEO, the company said in a statement Friday night. - “Our leaders are expected to set the standard in both conduct and accountability,” the statement said in part, adding that the company’s board of directors “has initiated a formal investigation into this matter and we will have additional details to share very shortly.” - PEOPLE - think before you do stupid things! NETFLIX Earnings - Netflix posted second-quarter revenue growth of 16% on Thursday after the closing bell. - The company raised its full-year revenue guidance, citing “healthy” member growth and ad sales. - Netflix reported revenue of $11.08 billion for the second quarter, higher than Wall Street’s estimates of $11.07 billion, according to data compiled by LSEG. -Stock was sold off after - priced to perfection - Netflix’s higher forecast reflects the weakening of the U.S. dollar compared with other currencies as well as “healthy” member growth and ad sales, the company said in a statement. (What happened to constant currency?????) - Off 8% this month, Up 36% YTD Impressive - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company on Thursday reported a near 61% year-on-year rise in second-quarter profit, hitting a record high and beating estimates, as demand for artificial intelligence chips stayed strong. - The world’s largest contract chip manufacturer forecast third-quarter revenue between $31.8 billion and $33.0 billion — a 38% year-over-year increase and 8% higher from the prior quarter at the midpoint. - - Revenue: 933.80 billion new Taiwan dollars ($31.7 billion), vs. NT$931.24 billion expected - - Net income: NT$398.27 billion, vs. NT$377.86 billion On the Other Hand - ASML warned of the possibility of no growth in 2026, even as it beat top and bottom line expectations for the second quarter. - ASML’s guidance for the current quarter missed expectations while it narrowed its own forecast for the rest of the year. - Shares of the firm ended the day 11.4% lower after the report -  ASML is the sole supplier of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems,

OBBBA written into law! Big week for Coney Island The American Party - Musk taking a shot Amazon Prime Day (Prime Week) happening PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter INTERACTIVE BROKERS  Warm-Up - OBBBA written into law! - Big week for Coney Island - The American Party - Musk taking a shot - Amazon Prime Day (Prime Week) happening - BIG WIN FOR US AT AIRPORTS! Markets - ATH before the July 4th break - Jobs numbers - a bit surprising - Tariff threats are back - full court press is on! -- Letters are going out! - NVDA - History in the making THE WINNER OF THE CTP - Something that never happened before! Earnings Season According to Factset: - During the second quarter, analysts reduced earnings-per-share (EPS) estimates by a wider margin than usual. - The bottom-up EPS estimate for Q2—which aggregates the median EPS forecasts for all companies in the index—fell by 4.2%, dropping from $65.55 on March 31 to $62.83 by June 30. - While it’s common for analysts to lower EPS estimates during a quarter, the size of this quarter’s decline stands out. Over the past 5 years (20 quarters), the average quarterly decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate has been 3.0%. - Over the past 10 years (40 quarters), the average drop was 3.1%, and over the past 15 years (60 quarters), it was 3.2%. - Only when looking back 20 years (80 quarters) does the average match this quarter’s 4.2% decline. --- What this means is that easier hurdles to get over for companies that have had their earnings estimates slashed. ELON - On July 5, Musk said he would found an "America Party" as an alternative to the Republican and Democratic parties. Musk says the party will focus on "just 2 or 3 Senate seats and 8 to 10 house districts." - He can't be President, what are his aspirations here? Joey, Joey, Joey - Joey Chestnut on Friday regained his longtime title of champion in the Nathan's Famous Hot Dog Eating contest at New York City's Coney Island after he was banned from the competition last year. - In the 2025 contest, he ate 70.5 hot dogs and buns in 10 minutes, totaling roughly 21,150 calories, 1,269 grams of fat, and 48,280 milligrams of sodium Tariffs - After OBBBA - good time to start this up again - Bessent, White House and Navarro are back on the Tariff Trail -  Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said President Donald Trump will send letters to some trading partners saying tariffs will boomerang back to April 2 levels on Aug. 1 if there is no progress. - Bessent rejected that Aug. 1 is a new trading deadline, but it could still give countries more time to negotiate. Bessent also said that he expects to see “several big announcements over the next couple of days” about trade deals. - Johnny:I am going to count to three! - Trump has threatened an additional 10% tariff on countries that orient themselves along the “Anti-American policies of BRICS.” - Trump’s announcement, which did not elaborate on any specific policy of BRICS, came as the group’s meeting is underway in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. - Navarro out with his usual tough talk about all countries in the world screwing America on CNBC Monday.. - Trump said he had signed letters to 12 countries outlining the various tariff levels they would face on goods they export to the United States, with the “take it or leave it” offers to be sent out on Monday. OOPS THERE IT IS! - Monday 12PM: President Trump posts letters to Prime Minister of Japan, President of the Republic of Korea outlining 25% tariffs starting August 1}- Sends out a total of 14 letters. Markets miffed, but don't care China and Trade Deal - GE Aerospace has received U.S.