Article. What is a Fair Investment Assumption?

In this episode of The Synopsis we read our latest Speedwell Research memo. If you prefer to read instead of listen to the memo, you can find access to the article below. This weeks memo is "What is a Fair Investment Assumption? " Memo Link: https://www.speedwellmemos.com/p/what-is-a-fair-investment-assumption  -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Show Notes (0:00) – Housekeeping / Intro (0:25) –Memo Reading Starts (15:25) – Closing Comments -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Purchase a Speedwell Membership to gain access to Speedwell’s Extensive Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more.  Please reach out to [email protected] if you need help getting us to become an approved research vendor in order to expense it. Speedwell Research's main website can be found here.  Find Speedwell's free newsletter here. -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC Threads: @speedwell_research Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Disclaimer Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

On this Dialogue episode we give an update on two of our companies: Copart and Coupang! We talk about Coupang's new entrance into the luxury market and two call options for Copart. Plus a short diatribe on Temu and Aliexpress.  You can read the 3Q24 business update on Coupang here and on Copart here. *Note: it is Copart's 1Q25 fiscal year*  *Apologies, but it seems the mic recorded lower sound quality at times. We will fix it for future episodes*   *~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~* For Coupang and Copart we have an in-depth, company-specific episode. These are evergreen and extremely comprehensive deep dives on each company.  Listen to the Coupang ($CPNG)Company Podcast Episode here: (Apple, Spotify) Listen to the Copart ($CRPT) Company Podcast Episode here: (Apple, Spotify) *~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~* *Mentioned Memos* Read one of our most popular memos on Wish here: The Future of Ecommerce That Wasn’t: An In-depth Look into What Went Wrong with Wish Listen to our Dialogue Podcast on Wish here: Apple, Spotify  -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Show Notes (0:00) — Intro Coupang (0:56) — Coupang (10:34) — Cash Flow Dynamics (14:45) — Taking on the Luxury Market (18:11) — The Lower End Market Threat with Temu and AliExpress (23:30) — New markets and growth opportunities Copart (28:28) — Copart (34:56) — Long Term Growth Rate Variables (35:46) — Annoying Copart Question (38:51) — Their Big Call Option (48:09) — International (50:42)— Valuation Three Ways (1:21:00) Another Call Option -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- For full access to all of our updates and in-depth research reports, become a Speedwell Member here. Please reach out to [email protected] if you need help getting us to become an approved research vendor in order to expense it. *-*-*- Follow Us: Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC Threads: @speedwell_research Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback. -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Disclaimer Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discussed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

On this Dialogue episode we give an update on three of our companies: Axon, Constellation Software, and Dream Finders Homes. Plus a short tirade on the OTAs business model and companies that don't host quarterly earnings calls!  You can read the 3Q24 business update on all three companies here. (The written update is partially paywalled, so become a Speedwell Member today! Please reach out to [email protected] if you need help getting us to become an approved research vendor in order to expense it.)  For full access to all of our updates and in-depth research reports, become a Speedwell Member here. *~*~*~*~* For Dream Finders Homes and Constellation Software we have longer, in-depth podcast episodes which you can listen to below. These are evergreen and give a lot of more details on each companies' history, business, industry, and competitve dynamics. Axon will be coming soon!  Listen to the Dream Finders Homes ($DFH)Company Podcast Episode here:  (Apple, Spotify) Listen to the Constellation Software ($CSU) Company Podcast Episode here: (Apple, Spotify)   -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Show Notes (0:00) — Intro (1:37) — This Doesn't Make Sense: Booking Holdings Diatribe on Merchant vs Agency Model (5:43) — Companies that Get Away without Quarterly Earnings Calls (8:42) — DFH Update on Housing and Business Model (18:49) — Axon Quick Overview and Update (33:07) — CSU Update, FCFA2S, and Valuation  (42:47) — Coming Soon From Speedwell Research -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Become a Speedwell Member here to gain access to *all* of our in-depth research reports and more!   Sign up for Speedwell's free newsletter and weekly memos here *-*-*- Follow Us: Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC Threads: @speedwell_research Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback. -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Disclaimer Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discussed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

In this investment focused interview, we talk with Twitter's Compounding Quality on his investment philosophy, 3 step approach to valuation, how he screens for companies, when to sell, and much more!  Find out more about Compounding Quality here and follow him on Twitter @QCompounding The mentioned Speedwell memo on Sell Side Price Targets can be found here.  *~*~*~*~*  Get access to all of Speedwell Research's in-depth Research Reports here. If you need help getting Speedwell added as an approved research vendor for your investment firm, please reach out to [email protected]  -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Show Notes (0:00) Intro and Compounding Quality’s Investment Philosophy (4:43) What defines a "quality" company? (9:34) How important is a great manager? (13:16) Overview on Judge’s Scientific (19:05) Issues with Sell Side Reports (22:26) Compounding Quality's 3 Step Approach to Valuation (34:03) Pieter's Worst Investments Ever (37:17) Does the Stock Market serve you or do you serve it? (45:49) Screening for Stocks (55:15) Moats as a Margin of Safety (1:02:21) Meta and Re-checking the Investment Thesis (1:09:09) The Best thing that Ever Happened to Pieter (1:12:04) The Only Business Compounding Quality Sold (1:19:30) When do you sell a quality company? -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Become a Speedwell Member here to gain access to *all* of our in-depth research reports and more!   Sign up for Speedwell's free newsletter and weekly memos here *~*~*~*~*  Follow Us: Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC Threads: @speedwell_research Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback. -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Disclaimer Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discussed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

In this episode of The Synopsis we read our latest Speedwell Research memo. If you prefer to read instead of listen to the memo, you can find access to the article below. This weeks memo is "How Axon's Founder Built a $35bn Business: 10 Lessons from Rick Smith" Memo Link: https://www.speedwellmemos.com/p/how-axons-founder-built-a-35bn-business Get access to our full $AXON Research Report here.  -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Show Notes (0:00) – Housekeeping / Intro (1:03) –Memo Reading Starts (19:28) – Closing Comments -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Purchase a Speedwell Membership to gain access to Speedwell’s Extensive Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more.  Speedwell Research's main website can be found here.  Find Speedwell's free newsletter here. -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC Threads: @speedwell_research Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Disclaimer Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

On this Dialogue episode we talk about 3Q24 earnings for Floor & Decor, Meta, and Etsy. You can read this entire 3Q24 earnings update for free here.  For full access to all of our updates and in-depth research reports, become a Speedwell Member here. *~*~*~*~* Link for Podcast Mentioned in the Show: "Dialogue. Meta, Etsy, and Snowballing Risks" (Apple, Spotify) *~*~*~*~* For all three companies we have longer, in-depth podcast episodes which you can listen to below. These are evergreen and give a lot of more details on each companies' history, business, industry, and competitve dynamics.  Listen to the Floor & Decor ($FND) Company Podcast Episode here:  (Apple, Spotify)  Listen to the Meta ($META) Company Podcast Episode here: (Apple, Spotify) Listen to the Etsy ($ETSY) Company Podcast Episode here: (Apple, Spotify)  -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Show Notes (0:00) - How we think about Quarterly Updates  (5:55) - Floor & Decor: Deviating from the Long-term Plan?  (33:06) - Meta: Business Firing on All Cylinders  (48:14) - Etsy: Why are “Polar Opposite” Offerings Taking Share? -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Become a Speedwell Member here to gain access to *all* of our in-depth research reports and more!   Sign up for Speedwell's free newsletter and weekly memos here *-*-*- Follow Us: Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC Threads: @speedwell_research Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback. -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Disclaimer Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

On this episode we talk about 3Q24 earnings for CoStar Group ($CSGP) and Evolution ($EVO). The free versions of the earnings updates can be found here: CoStar Group, Evolution  For full access to all of our updates and in-depth research reports, become a Speedwell Member here. For both companies we have longer, in-depth podcast episodes which you can listen to below. These are evergreen and give a lot of more details on each companies' history, business, industry, and competitve dynamics.  Listen to the CoStar Group Company Podcast Episode here: Apple, Spotify Listen to the Evolution Company Podcast Episode here: Apple, Spotify -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Show Notes (0:00) - Intro  (1:18) - Evolution Update (29:03) - CoStar Group Update  -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Become a Speedwell Member here to gain access to *all* of our in-depth research reports and more!   Sign up for Speedwell's free newsletter and weekly memos here *-*-*- Follow Us: Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC Threads: @speedwell_research Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback. -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Disclaimer Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

In this investment focused interview, we talk with Twitter's Sidecar Investor on partnering with great managers, position sizing, sourcing ideas, "stable assumptions", and when to not trust an operator, among much more!  Find out more about Sidecar Investor here and follow him on Twitter @sidecarcap The Mentioned Memo on Home Depot can be found here.  *~*~*~*~*  Get access to all of Speedwell Research's in-depth Research Reports here. If you need help getting Speedwell added as an approved research vendor for your investment firm, please reach out to [email protected]  -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Show Notes (0:00) Intro (3:57) — Early Examples of Partnering with Great Managers (9:05) — Importance of Managers vs. Moats (15:13) — Owner Operator Companies Upside and Potential Downfall (17:52) —  How Much Can You Trust a Manager (26:47) — Diversification vs Resiliency (30:19) — Lessons in Investing, Valuation, and When to Sell (35:19) — Position Sizing and Holding (40:21) — Macro Role, Capital Intensity, and Moats (51:45) — Sourcing Ideas (58:26) — Gaining and Losing Confidence in Management Teams (1:03:38) — Assumptions, Conservatism versus Accuracy (1:08:40) — Learnings and What Businesses Should People Study More -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Become a Speedwell Member here to gain access to *all* of our in-depth research reports and more!   Sign up for Speedwell's free newsletter and weekly memos here *~*~*~*~*  Follow Us: Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC Threads: @speedwell_research Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback. -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Disclaimer Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

In this episode of The Synopsis we read our latest Speedwell Research memo. If you prefer to read instead of listen to the memo, you can find access to the article below. This weeks memo is "Minimum Viable Products versus Maximum Possible Products " Memo Link:  www.SpeedwellMemos.com/mvps-versus-mpps -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Show Notes (0:00) – Housekeeping (1:06) –Memo Reading Starts (13:24) – Closing Comments -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Purchase a Speedwell Membership to gain access to Speedwell’s Extensive Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more.  Speedwell Research's main website can be found here.  Find Speedwell's free newsletter here. -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC Threads: @speedwell_research Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Disclaimer Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

On this episode we talk about a recent memo, Investing is Just Answering a Series of Questions: Explaining the Reverse DCF We cover what a Reverse DCF is, how do use one, common errors, and how an investor should conceptulize the outputs.  We hope you enjoy!  *~*~* For full access to all of our in-depth research reports, become a Speedwell Member here.  *~*~* Other Speedwell Memos Mentioned in the Discussion The Investment Matching Principle (on the connection between position sizing and risk/ reward)  From Private to Public Markets (touches on VC vs Buffett Investing)  -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Show Notes (0:00) Memo Overview  (2:57) - Reverse DCF Details (11:46) - Issues with the Terminal Value (18:50) What Makes a Great Investor (31:43) — Basketball Betting Analogy , Getting the Lower Range Correct (37:04) - Mistakes with the Reverse DCF and Mistakes We’ve Made -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Become a Speedwell Member here to gain access to *all* of our in-depth research reports and more!   Sign up for Speedwell's free newsletter and weekly memos here *-*-*- Follow Us: Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC Threads: @speedwell_research Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback. -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Disclaimer Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. All views expressed on this podcast do not represent the views of the companies podcast contributors may have worked for. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/