Evening Market Recap - Tuesday, 25-Nov

US equities built on the prior Friday's bounce and rallied sharply over the final week of November, ending higher for a fifth straight session. December rate cut odds pushed above 80% (after briefly falling below 30% in the prior week) as Waller and Daley followed Williams from late last week with dovish leaning Fedspeak. Claims data continued to offer a more optimistic assessment of the labor market amid continued concerns about incremental softening.

US equities closed higher in fairly quiet Wednesday trading, ending a bit off best levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq finishing up 67bps, 69bps, and 82bps respectively. The Big story today was momentum factor outperformance following recent selloff. Elsewhere, Initial claims printed at 216K for week-ended 22-Nov, better than the 230K consensus, while continuing claims came in at 1.960M, below the 1.964M consensus. Treasury's auction of $44B in 7-year notes tailed by 0.6 bp, following Tuesday's tailing 5Y sale.

US equities ended the day higher, trading near beat levels. Big tech was once again in focus, with Nvidia a notable decliner amid competition concerns from Alphabet. Today also saw a lower rate backdrop as it was reported that Hasset was the front runner to replace Powell as the Fed chair

US equities finished higher in Monday trading, ending not far from best levels. US equities finished higher in Monday trading, ending not far from best levels. On the Fed front, December easing odds continue to tick higher with San Francisco's Daly the latest to publicly get behind a cut.

US equities were lower this week, with the S&P 500 down for a second week in the past three, and Nasdaq down for a third-straight week. Stocks finished the week lower with the momentum selloff the big focus amidst ongoing AI scrutiny/skepticism. Nvidia posted a beat and raise, but that was not enough to offset broader AI fears.

US equities lower in Thursday trading, near their worst levels. There was nothing specific behind the move, though stretched valuations, technicals, and the market simply falling back into the recent momentum unwind are all easy excuses. Thursday's jobs data also seemed to play into growth fears, including a negative revision for the August print, cooler wage growth than expected, the highest unemployment rate in four years, and continuing jobless claims setting a fresh cycle high

US equities finished higher in Wednesday afternoon trading, closing off worst levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 10bps, 38bps, and 59bps respectively. Positive close followed a four-day slide for the S&P, with Nvidia higher ahead of its post-close print. October's FOMC minutes noted "many" participants suggested it would be appropriate to keep rates unchanged for rest of the year. Treasury auction of $16B in 20-year bonds tailed by 0.2 bp, with the bid-to-cover and foreign demand both weaker than recent trends. TJX and Williams Sonoma beat and raised, but Target missed and lowered FY EPS.

US equities were mostly lower in Tuesday trading, though ended off worst levels in fairly choppy trading. Select big tech and AI still under scrutiny while healthcare remains a preferred destination.

US equities finished lower in Monday trading, ending a bit off worst levels. There were a few moving pieces as the market waits for a number of higher-profile events this week, including Nvidia NVDA earnings, retail earnings, FOMC minutes, a barrage of Fedspeak, and September’s NFP and flash PMIs. In macro news, the Empire State manufacturing survey for November posted a surprise increase to 18.7, its highest since last November.

Major US equity indices logged mixed performance this week, with a recent momentum unwind seeing some stabilization on Friday. AI names, retail-investor favorites, most-shorted names, crypto-linked companies, and quantum computing came under some pressure. Among the big stories in the ongoing AI-scrutiny thread were Softbank's sale of its Nvidia stake, a continuing selloff in Oracle with focus on its debt-fueled AI buildout plans, and Coreweave weakness after lowering guidance on delays from a third-party developer.