Bitcoin's Bottom Is In — But Saylor Is The Risk | Vijay Boyapati

The Last Trade: Chris Kuiper, VP of Research at Fidelity Digital Assets, returns to make the case that this is the worst sentiment he has seen in his decade-plus following Bitcoin even though nothing fundamental has actually broken, why Bitcoin is finally decoupling from the AI-led "everything-but-Bitcoin" rally, how Fidelity's updated "Getting Off Zero" report uses mean variance optimization to show a 90/0/10 stocks-bonds-Bitcoin allocation maximizing the Sharpe ratio at a conservative 25% Bitcoin CAGR assumption, why bondholders have spent decades underwater on a real-return basis, and why the Czech National Bank's small but symbolic Bitcoin position may be the start of central bank adoption gradually then suddenly.---🔸 Connect with Onramp: The leader in resilient, fault-tolerant Multi-Institution Custody for secure, enduring bitcoin ownership.👉 Onramp Finance: https://onrampbitcoin.com/finance👉 Sign up for Genesis: https://onrampbitcoin.com/finance#gen..📩 Schedule a consultation: https://onrampbitcoin.com/consultThe Last Trade: a weekly, bitcoin-native podcast covering the intersection of bitcoin, tech, & finance on a macro scale. Hosted by Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, & Brian Cubellis. Join us as we dive into what bitcoin means for how individuals & institutions save, invest, & propagate their purchasing power through time. It's not just another asset… in the digital age, it's The Last Trade that investors will ever need to make.🎙️ About This EpisodeChris Kuiper, VP of Research at Fidelity Digital Assets, joins Jackson, Brian, and Michael to walk through Fidelity's updated "Getting Off Zero" report and reframe the current Bitcoin drawdown for sophisticated allocators. Chris argues the sentiment is the worst he has seen in his decade-plus in the space, but nothing fundamental has broken; Bitcoin is simply finally decoupling from the AI-momentum rally, which is the diversification benefit allocators actually want. The episode covers Bitcoin spending ~96% of its history below all-time highs (so being underwater is the default state, not a signal), the four-year cycle's diminishing predictive power as derivatives smooth volatility, and the mean variance optimization that pops out a 90% stocks / 0% bonds / 10% Bitcoin portfolio at conservative assumptions (25% CAGR, 50% vol). On the macro side, Chris reiterates his 2026 look-ahead view that inflation comes back in waves, points to bond yields rising globally as the bond market sniffs out higher-for-longer, and revisits the 30-50% real drawdowns bondholders endured from the 1940s through the 1980s. Plus the Czech National Bank's symbolic but precedent-setting Bitcoin allocation, why advisor excuses for zero-allocation have shifted from "it's a Ponzi" to "I don't know how to operationally hold it," and why a zero allocation is now itself an active position requiring justification.🧠 Chapters00:00 - Market Sentiment and Current Trends03:05 - Understanding Bitcoin's Price Action06:03 - The Role of Education in Investing09:08 - Long-Term Trends and Market Cycles11:46 - Evaluating Bitcoin's Role in Portfolios15:05 - Institutional Perspectives on Bitcoin18:01 - The Future of Bitcoin in Investment Strategies34:23 - Understanding Money and Bitcoin's Value36:11 - The Role of Financial Advisors in Bitcoin Investment37:29 - Mean Variance Optimization and Bitcoin's Portfolio Role42:10 - Shifts in Institutional Sentiment Towards Bitcoin48:28 - Navigating Inflation and Market Uncertainty58:46 - The Future of Stablecoins and Central Bank Adoption💡 Subscribe & Stay AheadGet Onramp's weekly Research & Analysis:High-signal insights in bitcoin, macro, and custody.📩 https://onrampbitcoin.com/researchSubscribe to Onramp Media for more:🎧 The Last Trade | Final Settlement | Scarce Assets

Connect with Early Riders — https://www.earlyriders.com/contactConnect with Onramp — https://onrampbitcoin.com/contact-us/Presented collaboratively by Early Riders & Onramp Media…Final Settlement is a weekly podcast covering capital markets, dealmaking, early-stage venture, bitcoin applications and protocol development.This week Brian, Michael, and Liam cover MicroStrategy's first Bitcoin sale and the broader DAT unwind, Jamie Dimon's Clarity Act outburst against Coinbase, the AI IPO wave that Michael Burry compares to the 2000 dot-com peak, the CFTC approving Coinbase's first onshore BTC perpetuals, Falcon X's confidential IPO filing, Cash App and SoFi rolling out stablecoins to retail, MasterCard's NY BitLicense, and Binance launching tokenized shares.Chapters00:00 - Welcome Back and Market Overview00:46 - MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Sale and Market Sentiment08:06 - The State of Digital Asset Firms11:32 - Jamie Dimon's Stance on Stablecoins and Financial Rails22:53 - AI's Impact on Markets and Upcoming IPOs39:03 - CFTC Approval and Coinbase's Expansion40:41 - Falcon X IPO and Market Dynamics45:58 - Market Sentiment and Investment Strategies49:22 - Stablecoin Integration and Cash App's Innovations53:32 - SoFi's Stablecoin Launch and Regulatory Landscape56:01 - MasterCard's Bit License and Market Implications58:07 - Tokenized Stocks and the Future of Digital AssetsIf you found this valuable, please subscribe to Early Riders Insights for access to the best content in the ecosystem weekly: https://www.earlyriders.com/researchKeep up with Michael: https://x.com/MTangumahttps://www.linkedin.com/in/mtanguma/Keep up with Liam: https://x.com/Lnelson_21https://www.linkedin.com/in/liam-nelson1/Keep up with Brian: https://x.com/BackslashBTChttps://www.linkedin.com/in/brian-cubellis-00b1a660/

The Last Trade: Vijay Boyapati, author of The Bullish Case for Bitcoin, joins to argue the bottom is in on what he calls a relatively shallow bear market, why the $100K-era whale distribution into ETF hands sets up a stronger base for the next run, what Charles Schwab onboarding 40 million clients through a Bitcoiner-led trading platform means for adoption, the Clarity Act expected to pass in the next month or two, and where Michael Saylor's stretch preferred-share strategy is starting to add real risk to Bitcoin.---🔸 Connect with Onramp: The leader in resilient, fault-tolerant Multi-Institution Custody for secure, enduring bitcoin ownership.👉 Onramp Finance: https://onrampbitcoin.com/finance👉 Sign up for Genesis: https://onrampbitcoin.com/finance#gen..📩 Schedule a consultation: https://onrampbitcoin.com/consultThe Last Trade: a weekly, bitcoin-native podcast covering the intersection of bitcoin, tech, & finance on a macro scale. Hosted by Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, & Brian Cubellis. Join us as we dive into what bitcoin means for how individuals & institutions save, invest, & propagate their purchasing power through time. It's not just another asset… in the digital age, it's The Last Trade that investors will ever need to make.🎙️ About This EpisodeVijay Boyapati, author of The Bullish Case for Bitcoin, joins Jackson and Michael to walk through where Bitcoin sits in this "everything-but-Bitcoin" rally and why he's still bullish. He frames the current drawdown as a shallow bear market compared to 2014, argues the bottom is in, and explains why the $100K-era whale distribution (Galaxy alone reportedly sold $9B) actually sets up a stronger base because Bitcoin is now in the hands of ETF holders with a 2-4% allocation and an $80-100K cost basis. Vijay also covers the Charles Schwab crypto platform rolling out to 40 million brokerage clients (led by a senior Bitcoiner exec), the Clarity Act expected to pass within the next month or two, the political-capture moment marked by Sherrod Brown's unseating, and why Michael Saylor's third-level financial engineering through stretch has found product-market fit (mostly retail, ~80% of demand) but is starting to introduce leverage risk into the Bitcoin system. Plus a brief tangent on AI as a personal productivity superpower.🧠 Chapters00:00 - Introduction to Bitcoin Sentiment02:57 - Current Market Dynamics and Bitcoin's Performance05:46 - Comparative Analysis of Past Bear Markets09:05 - Opportunity Cost and Investment Strategies11:58 - AI vs Bitcoin: Market Dynamics15:12 - The Role of ETFs and Institutional Adoption18:12 - Whale Behavior and Market Psychology21:04 - The Future of Bitcoin: Adoption and Growth24:13 - Regulatory Landscape and Political Capture34:03 - Political Capture and Adoption Dynamics36:00 - The Role of Retail in Bitcoin Adoption38:04 - The Clarity Act and Its Implications40:02 - The Future of Bitcoin Adoption44:01 - Treasury Companies and Market Dynamics51:49 - Financial Engineering and Risk Management59:13 - The Impact of AI on Personal Productivity💡 Subscribe & Stay AheadGet Onramp's weekly Research & Analysis:High-signal insights in bitcoin, macro, and custody.📩 https://onrampbitcoin.com/researchSubscribe to Onramp Media for more:🎧 The Last Trade | Final Settlement | Scarce Assets

The Last Trade: James Seyffart of Bloomberg Intelligence joins to break down the sentiment divergence between beaten-down crypto Twitter and a TradFi apparatus that's finally all in, Morgan Stanley launching MSBT at a market-low 14 bips with a 2-4% Bitcoin recommendation across 17,000 advisors and $7T+ in assets, Mike Wilson's 60/20/20 portfolio call adding 20% gold, and why the boomer diamond hands held through the drawdown while the basis trade collapsed from 10%+ to under 5%.---🔸 Connect with Onramp: The leader in resilient, fault-tolerant Multi-Institution Custody for secure, enduring bitcoin ownership.👉 Onramp Finance: https://onrampbitcoin.com/finance👉 Sign up for Genesis: https://onrampbitcoin.com/finance#gen...📩 Schedule a consultation: https://onrampbitcoin.com/consultThe Last Trade: a weekly, bitcoin-native podcast covering the intersection of bitcoin, tech, & finance on a macro scale. Hosted by Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, & Brian Cubellis. Join us as we dive into what bitcoin means for how individuals & institutions save, invest, & propagate their purchasing power through time. It's not just another asset… in the digital age, it's The Last Trade that investors will ever need to make.🎙️ About This EpisodeJames Seyffart, ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, returns to talk through the two parallel stories playing out in digital assets right now. Crypto Twitter is beaten down while TradFi quietly takes over the rails. Morgan Stanley's MSBT comes in at 14 bips, the lowest fee on the market, and turns on a 2-4% Bitcoin allocation across 17,000 advisors and $7T+ in assets. Mike Wilson's 60/20/20 call gives gold a 20% sleeve, and JP Morgan, Ondo, and Securitize keep building tokenization rails. James also covers the latest 13Fs (Abu Dhabi pushing toward $600M, hedge funds dumping as the basis trade compresses below 5%), Truth Social pulling its spot Bitcoin ETF filing, the Hyperliquid ETF launches, and the prediction market ETF wave that's stuck at the SEC. Plus a preview of the Balchunas-Seyffart book coming in November.🧠 Chapters00:00 — Diverging Sentiments In Crypto & Traditional Finance12:56 — Morgan Stanley's Bitcoin ETF & Institutional Adoption25:56 — Portfolio Strategies: Gold, Bitcoin & Alternatives30:32 — Understanding Investor Behavior In Down Markets31:30 — The Role Of Education In Bitcoin Investments32:56 — Institutional Strategies & Bitcoin Allocations33:59 — The Impact Of Trading Platforms On Bitcoin Exposure35:10 — Challenges Of Self-Custody In Financial Planning36:40 — The Future Of Custody Solutions In Crypto38:46 — Insights From Recent 13F Filings39:08 — Analyzing Bitcoin ETF Trends40:31 — Understanding Hedge Fund Strategies In Bitcoin42:46 — The Growing Interest In Altcoin ETFs44:51 — The Emergence Of Prediction Market ETFs48:13 — The Future Of Prediction Markets In Finance💡 Subscribe & Stay AheadGet Onramp’s weekly Research & Analysis:High-signal insights in bitcoin, macro, and custody.📩 https://onrampbitcoin.com/researchSubscribe to Onramp Media for more:🎧 The Last Trade | Final Settlement | Scarce Assets

Connect with Early Riders // Connect with OnrampPresented collaboratively by Early Riders & Onramp Media…Final Settlement is a weekly podcast covering capital markets, dealmaking, early-stage venture, bitcoin applications and protocol development.This week Liam, Brian, and Michael cover Onramp's $12.5M Series A, Iran's Bitcoin-denominated Hormuz Safe insurance platform, the Clarity Act's passage through the Senate Banking Committee, Hyperliquid's USDC pivot and partnership with Coinbase, Standard Chartered's acquisition of Zodia Custody, Gemini's mounting losses, and Prime Trust's $970M lawsuit against Swan Bitcoin.Chapters00:00 - Introduction and Overview of Current Events01:58 - Onramp's Series A and Market Positioning05:54 - Bitcoin's Role in Global Transactions10:21 - Iran's Adoption of Bitcoin for Payments15:14 - The Clarity Act and Its Implications20:23 - Stablecoins and Their Future31:36 - Hyperliquid's Partnership with Coinbase34:37 - The Future of Stablecoins and Bitcoin Adoption39:50 - Standard Chartered's Strategic Moves in Crypto Custody44:22 - Building vs. Buying: The Path of Traditional Finance47:18 - Gemini's Financial Struggles and Market Positioning50:58 - Pre-IPO Trading and Market Speculation54:03 - Prime Trust's Legal Challenges and Custody ConcernsIf you found this valuable, please subscribe to Early Riders Insights for access to the best content in the ecosystem weekly.Keep up with Michael:https://x.com/MTangumahttps://www.linkedin.com/in/mtanguma/Keep up with Liam:https://x.com/Lnelson_21https://www.linkedin.com/in/liam-nelson1/Keep up with Brian:https://x.com/BackslashBTChttps://www.linkedin.com/in/brian-cubellis-00b1a660/

In Episode 30 of The ₿roadcast, Bram Kanstein, Brian Cubellis, and special guest Liam Nelson break down the most important Bitcoin and macro developments from the past few weeks.00:00 - Intro & Welcoming Liam Nelson00:43 - Ray Dalio's Bitcoin Pushback11:28 - Mubadala's $600M IBIT Position & The Sovereign Bid18:34 - Draghi's Charlemagne Prize & The Euro's Collapse25:30 - Gemini's Fumble & The Everything Exchange Pivot31:55 - Menger, Asymmetry & Why Adoption Is Uneven45:07 - Gold's Underweight & The Debasement Regime1:05:09 - The Bond Market Is Breaking In Real Time1:09:13 - Early Riders Leads Onramp's Series A1:15:50 - The Golden Age Of GriftingThe ₿roadcast: Bitcoin culture meets Business & Finance. We catch up LIVE on news, tweets, videos, charts, trends, and other Bitcoin related content that stood out to us in the past two weeks ⚡️ Published on Saturday at 9AM EST / 3PM CET.

The Onramp team sits down for a full walkthrough of Onramp Finance, the unification layer tying the entire client experience together. Michael, Brian, Jackson, and Cam break down why custody had to be solved first, why the rest of the industry is sprinting toward speculation while Onramp builds for sound financial planning, and how dollars, bitcoin, and gold finally live in one account anchored by Multi-Institution Custody. Bram Kanstein joins to bring the international operator's view on what it actually takes to live and run a business on a Bitcoin standard.🎙️ Hosted by Michael Tanguma, Brian Cubellis, Jackson Mikalic, Cam Stromme, and Bram Kanstein⏱️ Chapters00:00 - The why behind Onramp Finance05:34 - Why custody had to come first08:49 - Evolution of the custody landscape15:21 - TradFi's late arrival to Bitcoin18:17 - The SD-card moment that changed everything23:29 - Three concentric circles of consolidation26:10 - Live dashboard walkthrough31:51 - What's coming next: DCA, mortgage, banking rails35:11 - Inheritance, simplified37:00 - Genesis Program + Q&A🔑 Key topicsMulti-Institution Custody as the foundation, not an afterthoughtStanding in opposition to the speculation economyDollars, Bitcoin, and gold in one accountEarn up to 5% on cash, 1.5% card cash-back, lowest-cost brokerageBitcoin IRAs, Arch loan integration, Argo gold partnershipInheritance that's a phone call, not a treasure huntUpcoming: mortgage product on MIC, bank deposit rails, instant clearing🔗 Onramp FinanceSign up: https://onrampbitcoin.com/financeGenesis Program: 210 founding seats — 5% earn rate, 1.5% card cash-back, 21,000 sats deposited, one year of MIC included

The Last Trade: Josh Phair joins to break down the metal wars escalating between sovereigns, gold's run from $3,300 to $4,700 in nine months, why CLARITY's Senate markup tomorrow is a capital flight moment, Wyoming winning the state's first physical gold mandate over JP Morgan, and the Fair-Sinclair ratio pointing to $35,000 gold.--- 🔸 Connect with Onramp: The leader in resilient, fault-tolerant Multi-Institution Custody for secure, enduring bitcoin ownership.👉 Onramp Finance: https://onrampbitcoin.com/finance👉 Sign up for Genesis: https://onrampbitcoin.com/finance#genesis📩 Schedule a consultation: https://onrampbitcoin.com/consultThe Last Trade: a weekly, bitcoin-native podcast covering the intersection of bitcoin, tech, & finance on a macro scale. Hosted by Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, & Brian Cubellis. Join us as we dive into what bitcoin means for how individuals & institutions save, invest, & propagate their purchasing power through time. It's not just another asset… in the digital age, it's The Last Trade that investors will ever need to make.🎙️ About This EpisodeJosh Phair, founder of Scottsdale Mint and CEO of the Wyoming Reserve Opportunity Zone Fund, returns to break down what he calls the "controlled demolition" playing out across sovereign balance sheets. China just posted its largest monthly silver import in 20 years, Poland is moving to 37% gold-backed reserves, and the US's number one net export has quietly become gold flowing to China via Switzerland for rare earths. Banks are now doing mercantile trading on behalf of governments, choke-pointing metals out of Latin America in what Josh calls the metal wars. Plus the CLARITY Act's Senate markup and the banking lobby's 100+ amendments threatening capital flight, Wyoming Reserve beating JP Morgan for the state's first physical gold mandate, the Tether seizure as the programmable-money tell, and why the Fair-Sinclair ratio points to $35,000 gold in a multi-decade money printing scenario.🧠 Chapters00:00 — Welcoming Josh Phair03:42 — Gold From $3,300 To $4,700 In Nine Months07:30 — The Metal Wars & Sovereign Accumulation13:09 — CLARITY, Capital Flight & The Banking Lobby15:33 — The Setup For The Biggest Bull Run Yet24:54 — Who Was On Air Force One To China28:27 — The Under-Allocation No Advisor Sees33:21 — Market Structure & Trust-Minimized Custody40:39 — Wyoming As The Property Rights Jurisdiction44:00 — The Phair-Sinclair Ratio & $35,000 Gold51:46 — Distrust As The Real Debasement Trade Driver54:30 — The Tether Seizure & Programmable Money1:02:57 — Beating JP Morgan For The Wyoming Mandate1:08:45 — States As The Next Sovereign Gold Buyers1:11:59 — Last Takes & Where To Find Josh💡 Subscribe & Stay AheadGet Onramp’s weekly Research & Analysis:High-signal insights in bitcoin, macro, and custody.📩 https://onrampbitcoin.com/researchSubscribe to Onramp Media for more:🎧 The Last Trade | Final Settlement | Scarce Assets

Connect with Early Riders // Connect with OnrampPresented collaboratively by Early Riders & Onramp Media…Final Settlement is a weekly podcast covering capital markets, dealmaking, early-stage venture, bitcoin applications and protocol development.This week Liam, Brian, and Michael cover Coinbase's recent earnings report, the degradation of their competitive moat, the American Banking Association's panic due to the Clarity act, the implications of Circle's new token, and the significant moves made by institutions like BNY Mellon and Kraken.Chapters00:00 - Coinbase's Earnings & Layoffs02:59 - Market Position & Competition06:11 - The Future of Coinbase & Leadership Challenges09:03 - Circle's New Token & Coinbase Relationship12:10 - The Clarity Act & Stablecoin Regulations14:53 - The Role of Traditional Banks in Crypto18:11 - Tokenized Securities & Market Innovations33:17 - Tokenization & Financial Evolution39:35 - Institutional Moves in Crypto Custody42:50 - Kraken's Strategic Acquisition47:54 - The Future of Crypto Funds51:09 - Emerging Financial Products & AI IntegrationIf you found this valuable, please subscribe to Early Riders Insights for access to the best content in the ecosystem weekly.Keep up with Michael:https://x.com/MTangumahttps://www.linkedin.com/in/mtanguma/Keep up with Liam:https://x.com/Lnelson_21https://www.linkedin.com/in/liam-nelson1/Keep up with Brian:https://x.com/BackslashBTChttps://www.linkedin.com/in/brian-cubellis-00b1a660/

The Last Trade: Joe Consorti joins to break down the bond market forcing Trump's hand on Iran, Morgan Stanley' launches spot trading, Coinbase's 14% layoffs, Saylor's signal on potentially selling BTC, Polymarket's casino dynamics, and why the math doesn't math anymore.--- 🔸 Connect with Onramp: The leader in resilient, fault-tolerant Multi-Institution Custody for secure, enduring bitcoin ownership.👉 Onramp Finance: https://onrampbitcoin.com/finance👉 Sign up for Genesis: https://onrampbitcoin.com/finance#genesis📩 Schedule a consultation: https://onrampbitcoin.com/consultThe Last Trade: a weekly, bitcoin-native podcast covering the intersection of bitcoin, tech, & finance on a macro scale. Hosted by Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, & Brian Cubellis. Join us as we dive into what bitcoin means for how individuals & institutions save, invest, & propagate their purchasing power through time. It's not just another asset… in the digital age, it's The Last Trade that investors will ever need to make.🎙️ About This EpisodeJoe Consorti, Head of Growth at Horizon, joins to discuss why every time the 10-year approaches 4.5%, peace talk rhetoric magically appears from the administration. The bond market is calling the shots, not the Fed. With WTI near $100, 70% of US farmers unable to afford fertilizer, and Warsh teeing up trimmed-mean PCE to justify cuts into inflation, the math doesn't math anymore. Plus Morgan Stanley's 50bps spot Bitcoin trade undercutting Schwab, Coinbase's 14% layoffs and the custody concentration problem nobody's pricing, Saylor's earnings-call signal on potentially selling Bitcoin to fund the STRC dividend, and why Polymarket's 67%-to-the-0.1% dynamic is a casino dressed as a market.🧠 Chapters00:00 — Welcoming Joe Consorti03:37 — The Bond Market Is Calling The Shots06:49 — Oil, Fertilizer & The Limits Of Jawboning12:04 — Warsh, Trimmed Mean & The Coming Cut14:14 — Why Bitcoin Doesn't Need A Catalyst20:11 — Morgan Stanley Spot BTC Trading22:27 — Custody As The Real Differentiator33:37 — Coinbase Layoffs & The 10% Problem36:13 — Everything To Everyone Is Nothing45:45 — Polymarket, Kalshi & The Casino Era55:33 — Saylor's Signal On Selling Bitcoin59:00 — Last Takes & Where To Find Joe💡 Subscribe & Stay AheadGet Onramp’s weekly Research & Analysis:High-signal insights in bitcoin, macro, and custody.📩 https://onrampbitcoin.com/researchSubscribe to Onramp Media for more:🎧 The Last Trade | Final Settlement | Scarce Assets