SI172: ‘Trend Following + Nothing’ Part One ft. Jerry, Moritz, Rob, Mark & Rich

In this episode Peter Oppenheimer, Chief Global Strategist and Head of Macro Research in Europe for Goldman Sachs joins us to discuss his new book Any Happy Returns: Structural Changes and Super Cycles in Markets. Peter believes financial cycles are the primary driver of investor returns. He explains how each cycle consists of four phases with distinct characteristics in terms of returns, earnings growth and valuations. We talk about the structural changes that are creating headwinds for markets in our current super-cycle and how AI and the energy transition might help offset them.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Peter on LinkedIn & read his book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:07 - Introduction to Peter Oppenheimer04:59 - What do financial cycles derive from?07:19 - What drives the cycles?09:31 - A desynchronisation in the cycles12:15 - Are we entering an optimism phase?14:39 - Interpreting the signals17:38 - Does Peter see room for interest rates to rise?21:59 - What drives the high corporate profits in GDP?26:54 - Are companies losing their...

In this episode, we are joined by Richard Brennan to discuss why now is the time to step up your trend following allocation. Rich challenges Andrew Beer’s conclusion that a 3% allocation to trend following is the sweet spot and explains why he believes the trend following industry should simplify its narrative and quit the fancy “jargon”. We also discuss what defines a trend follower and why we may be losing the incentive to keep improving as trend followers, new research on the impact of crises and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:02:08 - What has been on our radar recently?08:33 - Industry performance update16:02 - What is the optimal allocation to trend following?24:02 - Do trend followers have fiduciary responsibility?27:09 - Why is Andrew Beer having trouble with his trend following allocation?31:30 - Are we moving too far away from the classic trend following?37:21 - What does it take to call yourself a trend follower?42:01 - Discussing Corey Hoffstein's approach46:44 - What about the fees?50:34 - Are we losing the incentive to improve?58:45 - The impact of crises01:07:11 - Sign up for our new newsletter01:08:26 - What is up for next week?Copyright © 2023 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics

Today, we are delighted to be joined by Anthony Todd, Co-Founder & CEO of Aspect Capital, for an insightful discussion on the role of systematic trading and trend following in today’s economy. We also discuss what has driven Aspect Capital’s shift towards developing multiple strategies and how they guide their clients to make better investment decisions, whether the trend following industry should be concerned about replication strategies and how allocations are funded today. Lastly, we discuss how Aspect Capital uses AI in their work and how systematic trading has changed as a whole with the rise of AI, what Todd is most excited and concerned about in 2024 and much more. -----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Todd on LinkedIn.Find out more about DUNN CapitalEpisode Timestamps:02:24 - Introduction to Anthony Todd and Aspect Capital05:43 - A global macro perspective09:45 - How has the industry evolved?13:51 - Are investors under-allocated to trend?17:11 - Trend following - a return enhancer?20:37 - The correlation between stocks and bonds25:27 - The path to offering multible strategies29:47 - Balancing choices and guiding clients and investors33:26 - Are CTAs threatened by replication strategies?39:11 - How...

Today, we are joined by Andrew Beer to discuss why the current surge in Cocoa prices really is a big deal for our industry, but how CTAs have been selling it this year, against many main stream media reports. We also dig into how the strong performance in Q1 2024 is helping Trend Following making its way into more Model Portfolios and the existential crisis that we are seeing in the Model Portfolio world. We explain how the narrative around trend following is changing and why replication strategies are becoming less radical. And we wrap up our conversation touching on what the optimal allocation to trend following should be based on the latest publication from Man Institute, the challenges of dealing with unrealistic expectations in the trend following space and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Andrew on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 01:16 - What has been on our radar recently?05:38 - Industry performance update06:49 - What is the big deal with Cocoa?11:49 - What causes the rising Cocoa prices?13:56 - A fantastic start to the year for trend following16:58 - Industry performance update continued18:12 - Q1, Peter: What percentage of your liquid net worth do you have invested in DBMF?22:05 - What does Q1 2024 mean for CTAs?30:51 - A period of normalcy34:02 - A change in the trend following narrative42:54 - Are replication strategies becoming less radical?46:22 - Stacking returns - a good or bad idea?52:35 - Honey, I...

Christophe L’Ahelec, Managing Director of Public Markets at University Pension Plan Ontario, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss their approach to managing the C$11bn defined benefit pension plan. We discuss the high level Strategic Asset Allocation of the plan and also how the changed macro environment in recent years has motivated a shift in the asset allocation towards more absolute return strategies. Such strategies play a dual role of diversification and return enhancement for UPP and we discuss how Christophe thinks about an appropriate strategy allocation within absolute return. We also delve into the challenges of manager selection and evaluation, why it is important to remember that you are buying an “investment process” not historical returns when allocating to managers and discuss when is it appropriate to remove a manager and when not. -----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Christophe on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:50 - Introduction to Christophe L'Ahelec07:06 - A new initiative10:01 - What kind of strategy drives their asset allocation?12:40 - What goes into which bucket?14:45 - What makes absolute return exposure more attractive at the moment?16:31 - Constructing an absolute return portfolio18:38 - How they approach trend following21:58 - Why do they use leverage?23:32 - What do they expect from their...

Mark Rzepczynski joins us to remember one of the most important people within modern-day finance, author and psychologist, Daniel Kahneman, and the impact he had on our industry. We also discuss how increasing interest rates change the way investors behave and why trend following and CTAs have performed so well the past 5 years, perhaps without been given the credit the strategy deserves. We also dive into the cocoa market to discuss why it may still have a long way to go, despite racking up another 60% rise in March 2024 alone. We then move on to explain why the financial conditions index is important to understand for trend followers and why Mark believes stocks may continue to rise. Lastly, we discuss what makes trend following unique, why having trend following in your portfolio can help you achieve better performance and more diversification and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:03 - Remembering Daniel Kahneman03:54 - Things are changing09:54 - Industry performance update13:32 - What the Credit Suisse Managed Futures Index is missing16:23 - Let's talk about Cocoa21:55 - Trends can last longer than people expect24:44 - Is the Cocoa market a bubble?28:31 - Less markets = better performance?30:43 - Static vs. Dynamic position sizing in the Cocoa market39:13 - Understanding the financial conditions index45:09 - A euphoric environment49:47 - What makes trend following...

In this episode, Moritz Seibert is joined by Tony Kaiser, the CEO and founder of Kaiser Trading, a short-term systematic fund based in Melbourne, Australia. Tony speaks about his start in the late 1990s, leaving a bank prop trading role to set up his own shop, and then comments on how the short-term trading space has changed and evolved over the years. Today, the models they use are shorter-term than the ones they used to trade decades ago, and the entire business is much more tech dependent. Tony mentions that short-term trading is difficult and that the space has a higher barrier to entry, which is why there are relatively few short-term managers for investors to choose from, but that one really attractive feature is the low correlation of their returns not only to traditional asset classes, but also to their own sector, i.e., other short-term managers.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Follow Tony on LinkedInEpisode TimeStamps: 02:16 - Introduction to Tony Kaiser04:07 - An interesting journey16:50 - A difficult space for alpha20:55 - Why did Kaiser move into the short term space?28:17 - How has trading frequency and systems evolved?33:15 - Do Kaiser's original models still work today?45:28 - A shock to the system49:43 - Where does the low correlation come from?57:00 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2023

Join us for the weekly trend following update with Alan Dunne, where we discuss why 2024 is turning into an interesting year for investors with diverging signals from Central Banks. We debate the possibility of the markets entering a bubble and how the levels of interest rates could cause a refinance crisis. Alan also takes us through the history and outlook as per the newly released UBS 2024 Yearbook, uncovering what has been dominating the economy throughout history, and the reason why many investors might be missing out on potential diversification by under-allocating to trend following. Lastly, we discuss the role of hedge funds in a multi asset portfolio and the importance of constructing a portfolio that best suits the investor’s needs.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:21 - What is catching our attention at the moment?05:40 - Is the economy becoming a bubble?14:09 - A refinance crisis inbound?20:41 - Industry performance update24:49 - The economic outlook and history - UBS 2024 Yearbook32:29 - Equities are here for the long term37:57 - All in on equities?44:15 - Investors are getting this wrong46:19 - Can hedge funds play the right role?50:17 - Where do multi-strat funds fit in?53:28 - Choosing the right strategy58:00 - Thanks for listeningResources discussed in this Episode:LINK SI288: Why Not...

In this episode, Moritz Seibert is joined by Ricardo Leiman and Pedro Marion from KLI Asset Management, a UK-based commodities-focused hedge fund. Ricardo and Pedro explain why KLI’s trading approach is rooted in deep fundamental analysis of commodity supply and demand and how they integrate commodity equities into their portfolio. Furthermore, they mention that the strong diversification across their portfolio of about 30 markets allows them to hold directional positions longer term, avoiding stop-outs on short-term price reversals – a feature that’s also an edge. Ricardo and Pedro also provide color on markets which they believe are currently interesting, including copper, sugar, coffee, oil, and EUA emission allowances.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Follow Ricardo on LinkedInFollow Pedro on LinkedInEpisode TimeStamps: 02:09 - Introduction to Ricardo and Pedro06:18 - What is their edge?07:57 - What...

Today, we welcome Katy Kaminiski back to the show as we reflect on her entry into the trend following space and what she has learned on her systematic journey. We also discuss different ways of allocating risk in portfolio construction and why Katy “loves skewness”, why preparing for pain can actually lead to better decisions as an investor and how changes in the global macro environment takes time to manifest in trends. Lastly, we discuss what we are both excited and nervous for in 2024.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Katy on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 00:50 - What has been on our radar recently?03:03 - When are trends coming to an end?06:24 - Industry performance update07:31 - How did Katy end up in the trend following industry?11:19 - What attracted her to the industry?12:40 - What Katy has learned from being an allocator15:44 - Risk variations in portfolio construction20:21 - What drives the biggest dispersion?21:54 - Understanding risk in your portfolio24:05 - Constant vol targeting - just a phase?25:25 - The importance of skewness31:06 - Mind the timeframe34:57 - Preparing for pain ahead of time (MAN Paper)38:15 - No pain, no gain...43:28 - Economic trend (AQR Paper)47:33 - Dealing with a world in disruption50:48 - Excitement and worries about...