美轮美换 The American Roulette

美国前总统特朗普面临四起刑事起诉，他的麻烦有多大？ 【聊了什么】 美国前总统特朗普面临四场刑事起诉 —— 纽约封口费案、联邦机密文件案、联邦干涉选举案、乔治亚干涉选举案。我们对这四起案件的时间线、指控、影响进行了详细的盘点和分析，并讨论了这些案件对2024年大选的影响。 【支持我们 Support Us】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 众筹平台链接：www.patreon.com/americanroulette 合作投稿邮箱：[email protected] 【时间轴 Timeline】 01:00 对四场刑事起诉的初印象 07:53 纽约封口费案 26:31 联邦机密文件案 49:19 联邦干涉选举案 1:12:08 乔治亚干涉选举案 1:20:10 四场刑事起诉的反应和影响 【我们是谁 Who We Are】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 美轮美换的前身是“选·美 iAmElection”，一档由游天龙、talich、林垚、庄巧祎等人于2015年创立的中文播客，选·美聚集了一群关心美国政治的学者、律师、媒体人、观察者和爱好者，在2016年大选前后吸引了大量的听众和读者，成为一档现象级的播客。2020年大选前，talich等人重新推出了“美轮美换”，更新了16集。2023年，新一轮美国大选即将开始，我们决定将选·美和美轮美换的传统延续下去，推出新版的“美轮美换”播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： Lokin：美国法学院学生，即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师。 曹起曈：美国政治经济学PhD，政治行为研究者。 游天龙：《选·美》栏目创始人之一，美国政治的资深门外汉。 小华：媒体人，美政观察者。 本期节目由小华制作，封面设计来自欢祺，本期的音频编辑是大羊羊。 美轮美换是一档由百花传媒出品的播客。 【 What We Talked About】 Donald Trump, the first ever president (former or current) in U.S. history to be charged with criminal activity, is facing four indictments – the New York State case on hush money payment, a federal case on classified documents, a federal case on election interference, and the Georgia State’s case on election interference. We went over each of the indictments in detail, offering in-depth analysis of the timeline, charges, and implications of these four indictments. Tune in to this episode as we discuss their potential impact on the 2024 elections and find out why this matters to you. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected] 【Timeline】 01:00 Initial impressions of the four indictments against Trump 07:53 The New York State hush money case 26:31 The federal confidential files case 49:19 The federal election interference case 1:12:08 The Georgia State election interference case 1:20:10 The impact of the four indictments on the upcoming election 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. The American Roulette’s predecessor is “iAmElection”, a Chinese-language podcast created by Tianlong You, Talich, Yao Lin, and Qiaoy Zhuangi in 2015. The podcast brought together a group of scholars, lawyers, media veterans, observers and enthusiasts who care about American politics. At the height of its popularity, it was featured in the New York Times, and attracted an estimated 70,000 audience who listened each month. For the 2020 election, Talich and others relaunched the podcast as "美轮美换" with 16 new episodes. In 2023, as the new round of U.S. presidential election is about to begin, we’re building on the legacy of “iAmElection” and “美轮美换” to launch a new podcast that we hope will become your go-to American Politics podcast. We introduce: “美轮美换 The American Roulette.” Our Hosts and Guests: Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer 曹起曈 (Thomas Cao): PhD in political economy, political behavior researcher 游天龙 (Tinalong You): Co-founder of iAmElection, seasoned outside observer of American politics 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer This episode is produced by Xiao Hua, cover design by Huanqi, our audio editor for this episode is 大羊羊. American Roulette is a part of Baihua Media. 【拓展链接 The Links】 Trump indictment related to hush money payment Trump indictment related to classified documents Trump indictment related to election interference Trump and allies Georgia Indictment talich（华建平）：认识论决定了你我心中的世界 - 116 - 关雅荻·开放对话

【聊了什么】 从“大放异彩”的少数族裔候选人Vivek Ramaswamy，到肯尼迪家族的“局外人” RFK Jr.，再到更早的杨安泽，特朗普时代后，没有担任过公职的“非主流候选人”已经成为了两党初选中不可小觑的一股势力，他们为何能吸引到选民的支持，他们走多远？ The post-Trump era political arena has seen no shortage of unconventional candidates: from rising superstar Vivek Ramaswamy, to the “outsider” of the famed Kennedy family — RFK Jr., to the UBI candidate Andrew Yang from the last election cycle. In this episode, we dive into their political journey — how did they rise to become formidable foes without ever having held public office? What makes them appealing to their supporters and how far can they go? Follow along as we watch their career with great interest. 【时间轴】 01:33 首场共和党初选辩论回顾 04:44 “大放异彩”的Ramaswamy在辩论中遭受围攻，网络粉丝能帮他走多远 19:09 Ramaswamy的少数族裔身份和移民故事 26:13 肯尼迪家族的“局外人”RFK Jr.的崛起之路 29:35 从环保律师到阴谋论者，RFK Jr.的“反转”其实并不意外 35:18 从杨安泽到RFK Jr.，没有担任过公职的“非主流候选人”的初选天花板 46:37 特朗普如何打破初选天花板 51:51 两党选民的反建制情绪和战后社会文化思潮变化 58:21 “非主流候选人”退选后如何变现，他们都要去做播客了？ 01:33 A look back at the first Republican primary debate in August 2023 04:44 Ramaswamy faced a barrage of attacks at the debate; how far can his online fan base take him? 19:09 Ramaswamy's background as a minority and an immigrant 26:13 The rise of Kennedy family's "outsider” — RFK Jr. 29:35 From environmental lawyer to conspiracy theorist, RFK Jr.'s pivot is not all that surprising 35:18 The primary ceiling for candidates who have never held public office 46:37 How Trump broke the so called “primary ceiling” 51:51 The anti-establishment sentiment among voters in both parties and the post-war shift of socio-cultural attitudes 58:21 How "non-mainstream candidates" cash in after bowing out of the race — are they all pivoting to podcasting? 【我们是谁 Who We Are】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 美轮美换的前身是“选·美 iAmElection”，一档由游天龙、talich、林垚、庄巧祎等人于2015年创立的中文播客，选·美聚集了一群关心美国政治的学者、律师、媒体人、观察者和爱好者，在2016年大选前后吸引了大量的听众和读者，成为一档现象级的播客。2020年大选前，talich等人重新推出了“美轮美换”，更新了16集。2023年，新一轮美国大选即将开始，我们决定将选·美和美轮美换的传统延续下去，推出新版的“美轮美换”播客。 我们的主播： 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 Lokin：美国法学院学生，即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师。 Talich：美国政治/文化历史爱好者 小华：媒体人，美政观察者 The American Roulette is produced by Baihua Media. It is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. The American Roulette’s predecessor is “iAmElection”, a Chinese-language podcast created by Tianlong You, Talich, Yao Lin, and Qiaoy Zhuangi in 2015. The podcast brought together a group of scholars, lawyers, media veterans, observers and enthusiasts who care about American politics. At the height of its popularity, it was featured in the New York Times, and attracted an estimated 70,000 audience who listened each month. For the 2020 election, Talich and others relaunched the podcast as "美轮美换" with 16 new episodes. In 2023, as the new round of U.S. presidential election is about to begin, we’re building on the legacy of “iAmElection” and “美轮美换” to launch a new podcast that we hope will become your go-to American Politics podcast. We introduce: “美轮美换 The American Roulette.” Our Hosts: 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang)：American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer Talich: U.S. politics, history, and culture enthusiast 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer 本期节目由小华制作，封面设计来自欢祺，本期的音频编辑是Xavier。 美轮美换是一档由百花传媒出品的播客。 This episode is produced by Xiao Hua, cover design by Huanqi, our audio editor for this episode is Xavier. American Roulette is a part of Baihua Media. 【拓展链接】 A Chaotic Display of Conservatism at the First Republican Debate | The New Yorker 【支持我们 Support Us】 如果喜欢这期节目并愿意想要给我们买杯咖啡： 众筹平台链接：www.patreon.com/americanroulette 合作投稿邮箱：[email protected] If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected]

【聊了什么 What We Talked About】 美国大选年又来了，我们又憋不住想聊美国政治了。四年一度的大选，如同一场轮盘赌，赌的是美国乃至全世界的命运。共和党初选在即，司法麻烦不断的特朗普依然在民调中遥遥领先，却选择跳过初选辩论；建制派精英和金主们试图带共和党走出特朗普的阴影，无奈选民并不买账；毫无政治经验的“网红”Ramaswamy异军突起，上升势头猛烈。2024年的大选，是不是最终又会是4年前特朗普vs.拜登的重演？ With another U.S. election year just around the corner, we can’t help but take a deep dive into American politics once more. Every four years, it feels like we’re playing a game of roulette, betting on the fate of the United States and even the entire world. In this episode, we survey the current landscape ahead of the Republican primaries: Donald Trump — plagued by legal troubles — continues to lead in the polls. He chose to skip the very first primary debate. On the other hand, the GOP establishment elites and their donors are trying to lead the Republican Party out of Trump's shadow, but voters are not convinced. The politically inexperienced "internet celebrity" Vivek Ramaswamy has risen in popularity unexpectedly and gained a strong momentum. Will the 2024 election ultimately be a replay of four years ago, ending with Trump vs. Biden? Let’s find out. 【时间轴 Timeline】 3:43 2024年共和党初选的时间线和关键节点 11:13 共和党主要候选人盘点 14:38 力争上游的建制派精英—Ron DeSantis、Mike Pence、Tim Scott和Nikki Haley 37:55 异军突起的局外人—Vivek Ramaswamy 41:59 被起诉4次的特朗普民调不降反升，共和党选民为何对他不离不弃 50:44 跳过辩论的特朗普打的是什么算盘，其他候选人还有机会通过初选辩论翻盘吗？ 1:01:46 民主党一边拜登可以高枕无忧了吗？RFK Jr.的崛起和小儿子的司法危机会对拜登造成威胁吗？ 1:07:39 我们不负责任地预测了一下共和党初选以及2024年大选的最终结果 3:43 The 2024 Republican primary timeline and key milestones 11:13 Overview of the major Republican candidates 14:38 Establishment elites aiming high: Ron DeSantis, Mike Pence, Tim Scott, and Nikki Haley 37:55 Outsider rising unexpectedly — Vivek Ramaswamy 41:59 Trump is facing four lawsuits, yet his poll numbers continue to rise. Why do Republican voters remain loyal to him? 50:44 Why can Trump afford to skip the primary debates? Can other candidates get ahead through these debates? 1:01:46 On the Democrats’ side, can Joe Biden afford to sit back and relax? Will the rise of RFK Jr. and his son Hunter Biden’s legal troubles pose a threat to Biden? 1:07:39 We made some (irresponsible) predictions about the Republican primaries and the final outcome of the 2024 election 【我们是谁 Who We Are】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 美轮美换的前身是“选·美 iAmElection”，一档由游天龙、talich、林垚、庄巧祎等人于2015年创立的中文播客，选·美聚集了一群关心美国政治的学者、律师、媒体人、观察者和爱好者，在2016年大选前后吸引了大量的听众和读者，成为一档现象级的播客。2020年大选前，talich等人重新推出了“美轮美换”，更新了16集。2023年，新一轮美国大选即将开始，我们决定将选·美和美轮美换的传统延续下去，推出新版的“美轮美换”播客。 我们的主播： 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 Lokin：美国法学院学生，即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师。 曹起曈：美国政治经济学PhD，政治行为研究者。 小华：媒体人，美政观察者 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. The American Roulette’s predecessor is “iAmElection”, a Chinese-language podcast created by Tianlong You, Talich, Yao Lin, and Qiaoy Zhuangi in 2015. The podcast brought together a group of scholars, lawyers, media veterans, observers and enthusiasts who care about American politics. At the height of its popularity, it was featured in the New York Times, and attracted an estimated 70,000 audience who listened each month. For the 2020 election, Talich and others relaunched the podcast as "美轮美换" with 16 new episodes. In 2023, as the new round of U.S. presidential election is about to begin, we’re building on the legacy of “iAmElection” and “美轮美换” to launch a new podcast that we hope will become your go-to American Politics podcast. We introduce: “美轮美换 The American Roulette.” Our Hosts: 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang)：American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer 曹起曈 (Qitong Cao): PhD in American political economy, political behavior researcher 小华 (Xiao Hua): Media professional, political observer 【拓展链接 The Links】 黑马闪耀，群雄相争第二的诡异局面——简评共和党第一次初选辩论 【支持我们 Support Us】 如果喜欢这期节目并愿意想要给我们买杯咖啡： 众筹平台链接：www.patreon.com/americanroulette 合作投稿邮箱：[email protected] If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected]